Slovakia’s veto of the EU’s package of sanctions against Russia is not something entirely new.
After all, the bloc is already well familiar with such maneuvering from the prime minister of neighboring Hungary: Viktor Orban has in the past blocked EU decisions that have to be agreed unanimously, promising his supporters that he will “never” back down.
Then, at the last minute, he does a U-turn and drops his veto. In many cases, it is not clear what he got in return.
Then, back home, Orban portrays his “fight against the Brussels bureaucrats” as a “victory.”
A leaf out of Orban’s book
But this is the first time that Orban’s friend and ally Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has played this card.
For weeks, Fico — formally a Social Democrat but in practice a right-wing populist — kept the EU on tenterhooks, declaring that he would not approve the EU’s 18th package of sanctions against Russia, even if that would trigger a “major crisis in the EU.”
Fico’s reasoning was that the sanctions would have a massive impact on Slovakia’s economy and, above all, on its energy supplies.
He also claimed that it would damage the EU itself, not Russia.
Fico made his veto stance out to be a question of national sovereignty and national pride.
Fico drops his veto
The U-turn came in the form of a social media post late on Thursday evening just hours before the planned vote on the package.
Speaking in a video, Fico said that even though the European Commission’s sanctions plan against Russia was “nonsensical,” it would be “counterproductive” to vote against it.
He explained the concessions that Slovakia would get in return and finished by saying, “When in Rome, do as the Romans do.”
‘Show for the voters back home’
There was great relief in the EU at Fico’s surprise U-turn. Some — such as the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — even voiced understanding for Slovakia’s tough economic situation.
But within Slovakia itself, both opposition politicians and many political commentators have been extremely cutting about Fico’s maneuvering.
The general tone of what was said was that he had alienated Slovakia’s European partners, done Russian President Vladimir Putin a favor that did nothing for Slovakia and isolated the country.
Michal Simecka, leader of the country’s largest opposition party, Progressive Slovakia (PS), posted on Facebook that Fico was “amateurish, lacked direction, frustrated and unsuitable to hold office and to defend Slovakia’s interests.”
A commentator for the daily broadsheet SME called Fico’s maneuvering a “show for the voters back home and to divert people’s attention away from other problems.”
Exemption for Slovakia
But what was the purpose of Fico’s maneuvering and what did it ultimately achieve?
The aim of the EU’s 18th package of sanctions against Russia was above all to stop the sale of Russian oil in the EU, to cut off the Russian armaments industry from key imports, and ban transactions with Russian banks that have not so far been on the list of sanctioned institutions.
Fico and his coalition government had agreed to the package in principle. The bone of contention was a set of measures included in a plan known as RePowerEU, which Brussels tabled some time ago. Among other things, this plan seeks to stop the flow of Russian gas to EU member states from 2028.
Slovakia wanted an exemption from this plan because it has a gas supply contract with the Russian company Gazprom that runs until 2034 and is completely dependent on Russian gas.
But even before Fico agreed to back the 18th sanctions package, the EU had assured Slovakia assistance in this respect, allowing the country to use some of the financial aid from the EU to subsidize energy prices.
Brussels has also promised Slovakia assistance in the event of litigation with Gazprom. So, why the “show for the voters back home”?
Budget deficit
On the one hand, Slovakia is in considerable financial difficulty and in the middle of a profound structural economic crisis. Fico’s coalition government has been able to solve neither problem since coming to power in late 2023.
Above all, it is dragging its heels on the issue of fixing the country’s public finances. Last year, Slovakia’s budget deficit stood at 5.3% of GDP, which is well over the 3% limit for the eurozone.
Even though Fico’s government has already introduced financial consolidation measures, which included raising a number of taxes and social security contributions and canceling some public holidays, it has also made some expensive gifts to its voters, including support to cope with high energy prices and a 13th monthly pension payment for senior citizens.
The government is also currently under pressure among other things because of a controversial tax on financial transactions.
Structural crisis
Economically, the crisis in the automotive industry has brought huge problems for Slovakia, which relies heavily on exports.
Plants in Slovakia produce for Volkswagen, Kia, Jaguar and Peugeot. Indeed, car production is by far the most important economic sector in the country.
However, because of the upheaval on the automotive market, competition from China, falling sales in the US, and US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, the Slovak automotive production model is facing growing problems.
Fico’s government has yet to table a long-term plan for fundamental economic reform.
Accusations of corruption
But Fico and his government are also under pressure because of a series of corruption scandals — both old and new.
After the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee Martina Kusnirova in February 2018, Fico was forced to resign. In the years that followed, it became clear just how close the links between politics and organized crime are in Slovakia.
Since Fico returned to power in late 2023, one of his top-priority projects has been to stop the fight against corruption and to silence opponents.
Peter Bardy, editor-in-chief of the web portal Aktuality, says that Fico is “obsessed with revenge,” which is also the title of his current bestseller about the prime minister.
Actuality recently reported on a scandal concerning a luxury villa of obscure ownership on the Croatian Adriatic coast with alleged links to the prime minister.
Support for Putin
Fico sees himself as a victim and a man surrounded by enemies. This has intensified since he was the victim of an assassination attempt in May 2024. He feels that the opposition, independent media, liberalism, “LGBTQ ideologues” and the EU are all conspiring against him.
Fico has repeatedly taken sides with President Putin and was the only EU head of government to travel to Moscow for the Victory Day parade there on May 8.
After a visit to Uzbekistan in June, he praised its political system, calling it a model, and reflected on how “European democracy” could be reformed, for example by reducing the number of parliamentary parties.
‘Dam against progressivism’
This fall, Fico is planning to erect a “dam against progressivism” with amendments to the constitution.
Among other things, he is planning to only recognize two genders: male and female.
Slovak-Hungarian journalist and writer Laszlo Barak sees both this move and Fico’s strategy of first opposing and then agreeing to the EU’s sanctions against Russia as part of the same policy.
“This is how the Fico reality is constructed: with slogans, half-truths and cheap lies,” he said, writing for the online media outlet Parameter. “That’s his policy: manipulation, Russophilia and cynicism.”
This article was originally published in German.
