AI Finds Nearly Half of IBD Patients Die Prematurely todayheadline

Machine learning algorithms have revealed a troubling reality for Canadians living with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD): almost half of them are dying before their time.

In a new study published Monday in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, researchers found that 47% of Ontarians with IBD died prematurely—before age 75—with certain early-life health conditions significantly increasing their risk.

The research team, led by scientists from SickKids Hospital and the University of Toronto, analyzed data from over 9,200 deceased IBD patients in Ontario between 2010 and 2020. Their goal: to determine whether artificial intelligence could identify which combinations of additional health problems most strongly predicted an early death.

“The clinical implication is that chronic conditions developed early in life may be more important in determining a patient’s health trajectory, although further causal research is needed to elucidate this relationship,” wrote Dr. Eric Benchimol, pediatric gastroenterologist and senior scientist at The Hospital for Sick Children.

This finding comes at a critical time for Canada, which has among the highest rates of IBD worldwide. By 2035, approximately 470,000 Canadians—roughly 1 in 91—are projected to be living with Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis, the two main forms of IBD.

Early-Onset Conditions Signal Greater Risk

The study revealed that developing certain conditions before age 60 was particularly predictive of premature death. The AI models performed best when analyzing not just whether patients had additional health problems, but how young they were when these conditions first appeared.

Key risk factors included early-onset mood disorders, arthritis, other mental health conditions, and hypertension. Men with IBD were at higher risk than women, with 50% of male patients dying prematurely compared to 44% of females.

By the end of life, most IBD patients were managing multiple chronic conditions. The most common were various types of arthritis (77%), hypertension (73%), mood disorders (69%), kidney failure (50%), and cancer (46%).

“Although our insights are not causal insights, they identify patients potentially at higher risk of premature death, and therefore who might benefit from more coordinated care of their IBD and other chronic conditions,” Benchimol noted.

AI Outperforms Traditional Methods

Using sophisticated machine learning algorithms, the research team achieved remarkable accuracy in predicting which patients would die prematurely. The best model demonstrated an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.95—reflecting near-perfect discrimination between those who died before and after age 75.

This performance surpasses traditional statistical methods, illustrating AI’s ability to detect complex patterns that might otherwise remain hidden in large datasets.

Gemma Postill, medical student at the University of Toronto’s Temerty Faculty of Medicine and co-lead author of the study, along with Dr. Laura Rosella, developed multiple prediction models to explore different aspects of the relationship between chronic conditions and premature death in IBD patients.

“The use of premature death as the outcome more directly identifies opportunities for health system improvements, as premature deaths are considered avoidable through appropriate prevention or early and effective treatment,” the authors emphasized in their publication.

The findings highlight critical gaps in current care models for IBD patients, who often face fragmented healthcare that fails to address the full spectrum of their health needs.

Despite established goals for multidisciplinary IBD care, structural barriers—including funding limitations and organizational challenges—often prevent implementation. The research suggests that coordinated care addressing mental health, arthritis, and cardiovascular conditions alongside IBD management could potentially extend lives.

“These findings provide scientific support for providing multidisciplinary and integrated health care across the lifespan (particularly during young and middle adulthood),” the authors concluded.

For the nearly half-million Canadians projected to be living with IBD in the coming decade, this research offers both a warning and a roadmap: early identification and coordinated treatment of additional health conditions may be key to avoiding premature death.

While the study doesn’t establish that these conditions directly cause early death in IBD patients, it provides compelling evidence that they serve as important warning signs—signals that healthcare systems can potentially use to identify at-risk patients and intervene before it’s too late.