“American ranchers and farmers are definitely a large part of the base that elected President Trump,” says Alberta’s minister of agriculture and irrigation, RJ Sigurdson.
And, Sigurdson tells me, this is what they’re telling him: “Listen, we have provided a runway for the president to tackle and move forward with his strategy related to tariff inequities.” But as farmers move into their planting season, they’re also saying, time is running out, “that runway is getting very, very short.” Farmers were able to defer decision-making, until now; it’s planting season and choices about whether to plant, what to plant and how many acres to plant, have to be made.
I wanted to talk to Sigurdson about what this tariff blitz means for farmers and ranchers on this side of the Canada-U.S. border. In 2019, Sigurdson was first elected as MLA for Highwood in southern Alberta, and two years ago, Premier Danielle Smith moved him into cabinet.
“Is that a cow on your lapel?” I ask him. “Yes, it’s a Canadian cow,” he chuckles, “a pin from the Canadian Cattle Association.” Obviously attuned to the Team Canada vibe gaining traction across the country, Sigurdson — in his green jacket and plaid shirt — has strategically planted himself between a Canadian and Alberta flag on the screen in front of me.
We’re in a trade war and agriculture is a pawn. Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum make input costs higher for farmers, ranchers and agri-food producers, and exports have been clobbered. In the short term, that affects food affordability. Longer term — with global food demand predicted to rise between 65 to 85 per cent by 2050 — food security may be an issue.
Although Trump is attempting to rewire America’s relationship with pretty much the entire world, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs — threatened, in place and paused — stacking up between America, China and Canada are particularly onerous. In some cases, tariffs have become de facto trade embargoes; case in point being the 125 per cent retaliatory tariff on U.S. exports to China imposed after Trump announced a whopping 145 per cent tariff on Chinese imports.
The Chinese tariffs “have a lot of sting for farmers,” Sigurdson reports. “China is our largest market,” he explains, “just behind the U.S. overall, when it comes to agri-exports.” In response to Canada’s punishing tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural exports.
“You know,” Sigurdson reflects, “when Ottawa made the decision to put tariffs on EVs from China, that was a bit of a move. I do believe they were trying to protect the automotive industry, and to back some of the changes made by the U.S.”
That caused China to immediately move forward with an anti-dumping investigation, which, he clarifies, is a bit different than a tariff. And the industry is fighting that charge at the WTO level. But, he adds, “because the federal government didn’t get back to the table to have a conversation with China,” the Chinese escalated the trade war with a tariff on canola, dried peas, and pork.
“EV tariffs that punish farmers and ranchers in Canada is an unfair approach to Team Canada,” Sigurdson declares. “If Ottawa wants to keep claiming that it’s a Team Canada approach, then they need to start dealing with the issues that affect the western part of the team.”
As for trade relations between Canada and the U.S., everyone is holding their breath. In early March, in response to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports, including orange juice and peanut butter. A second wave of retaliatory tariffs, planned by Canada was paused when the U.S. paused tariffs on Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement (CUSMA)-compliant goods.
“I think it’s unfortunate that our federal government put in retaliatory tariffs before going to an election,” Sigurdson says. “Those retaliatory tariffs are just creating more of an issue for us to negotiate.” And, he adds, “I’m disappointed to see that the Liberals… continue to use terms like ‘fight’ and ‘push back.’ All of this is going to do nothing more than just drag out and make this situation worse. And it isn’t in the best interest of Canadians.”
“I would say it’s time to put emotions aside, understanding how important it is for us to find an immediate solution,” Sigurdson suggests, “Fighting, retaliating is only going to result in what we saw with China.” What he wants to see, instead, is protection of the CUSMA agreement.
Following Smith’s lead, Sigurdson has travelled to the U.S. several times this year, having conversations with senators, governors, congressmen and women, to talk about food security, food affordability, and the value of sustaining CUSMA. “We were able to procure a meeting with the Undersecretary of the United States Department of Agriculture,” he grins, “That’s a big deal.”
But the minister also knows Alberta agricultural producers can’t put all their eggs in one or two export baskets. “That’s why my first international trade mission was to Seoul, Korea and then to Tokyo, Japan,” he explains. This June, he’s planning to return to the Philippines and Vietnam, other export markets. In April, Smith led an Alberta trade mission to Japan and South Korea, talking up energy and agri-food exports from Canada.
Export markets aren’t the only way to sustain Canadian agriculture and agri-food. Value-add opportunities — converting canola into biofuels and cooking oil, potatoes into French fries, wheat into flour — are being high-graded in Alberta. Last year in the province, Sigurdson reports there was, “a record $3 billion of agri-processing and value-added investment,” attributable, he says, to Alberta’s agri-processing investment tax credit and lower tax rates.
Politicians of all stripes promise to boost free trade within Canada, and that’s something Alberta’s keen to see accelerated. But Sigurdson’s not naive to the bureaucratic elbow grease required to make this happen. “Ottawa has a lot of work to do on CFIA (Canadian Food Inspection Agency) when it comes to livestock,” he says, and regulations and standards have to be aligned, province to province. “It’s not an easy task — it’s a mountain — but we have to start taking one little bite every day and start attacking this and not lose focus on it.”
Building up infrastructure capacity is yet another priority. “That means roads, that means rails, that means ports, that means air,” Sigurdson say, “That means all of it.” Including, he highlights, getting oil into pipelines and freeing up rail capacity for agriculture.
Farmers, and one hopes politicians, are hard-wired to think to the future. But the average age of a rancher or farmer right now is 65, Sigurdson winces. And with the price of land and the price of equipment rising, export markets at risk, and all this anxiety and stress when it comes to tariffs, it’s a tempting time for an aging farmer or rancher to cash out.
Everywhere — the runway is getting very, very short.
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