Against a backdrop of global complexity, Iran’s economy is buckling under the weight of sanctions, while worldwide instability is intensifying due to Washington’s escalating trade wars with China, Europe, and other countries.
Iran faces runaway inflation, a collapsed local currency, rising unemployment, and widespread public distrust. The sanctions reinstated by the Trump administration after withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear agreement have dealt severe blows to Iran’s oil, banking, and industrial sectors.
Despite European efforts to salvage economic ties with Tehran, the tangible benefits have been negligible, leaving Iran to grapple with internal and external pressure largely on its own.
Just last month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened: “We will collapse Iran’s economy and eliminate its oil industry.”
His remarks, quoted by CNBC and made at an economic conference in New York, reiterated the US objective to slash Iran’s oil exports, currently at 1.5 million barrels per day. He added that the administration aims to disconnect Tehran from the international financial system and advised Iranian citizens: “Convert your local currency.”
The US Treasury also imposed sanctions last month on an international network accused of transferring oil from Iran to China.
In this reality, engagement with Washington becomes a strategic tool. From Iran’s perspective, entering talks without prior sanction relief would be seen as capitulation. For President Donald Trump, direct dialogue would be framed as a diplomatic win.
From Israel’s vantage point, the objective is clear: Prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and halt its military entrenchment in Syria and Lebanon. Jerusalem fears that direct talks between Washington and Tehran could lead to a partial agreement easing pressure on Iran without fully dismantling its nuclear program.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long led the opposition to the original nuclear deal, aims to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and avoid premature concessions. At the same time, he recognizes that the US has broader global interests and that Israel may not be able to influence every detail of the negotiations.
In their most recent meeting, Trump and Netanyahu presented a united front on Iran. But behind the scenes, differences remain. Trump, seeking a diplomatic achievement, may agree to a deal that Israel opposes. Netanyahu, on the other hand, would find it difficult to stand aside if Iran retains any nuclear capabilities.
THE LATEST round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded last Saturday after several hours of “indirect” negotiations in Oman. However, according to Iranian sources, the session ended with a brief, direct conversation between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, in the presence of Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi.
‘I won’t start wars – I’ll end them’
According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Iranian and American representatives remained in separate rooms during the main negotiations, with Oman’s foreign minister relaying messages between the delegations.
Trump has consistently stated that his preferred path is a diplomatic resolution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In his election night victory speech, he declared: “I won’t start wars – I’ll end them,” a message heard clearly in both Israel and Tehran.
Yet, as urgency grows in both Israel and the US over Iran’s progress on its nuclear program, Trump has escalated his threats, vowing that if Iran refuses to strike a deal, it will face bombings “the likes of which it has never seen.”
He has even explicitly mentioned a joint US-Israel strike: “Of course Israel will be involved – it will lead it,” he said this week. His threats have been backed by a buildup of US forces in the region, including the deployment of strategic and stealth bombers.
Despite their vocal alliance, Israel must prepare for the possibility that it may have to act alone to safeguard its security. The option of military confrontation is always on the table, especially when economic pressure fails to produce political results.
Provocations in the Persian Gulf, drone shoot downs, and attacks on Saudi oil facilities all signal that Iran is willing to use calculated violence to raise the cost of sanctions.
Should the negotiations fail or stall, and if either side believes the other has broken the rules, the likelihood of conflict will rise significantly. Israel, for its part, continues to prepare for a potential direct or proxy confrontation, especially through Hezbollah or Shi’ite militias in Syria.
Iran is not standing idly by, either. It is transferring long-range missiles to Iraq that could reach Europe, sending a clear message to both the US and Israel.
Iran has not abandoned its ambition to acquire nuclear weapons, and with its repeated calls for the destruction of the “Zionist entity,” the world must awaken and apply crushing sanctions on this terrorist state.
The next round of US-Iran talks is scheduled for this Saturday in Rome.
The French government announced on Monday that it, along with the UK and Germany, intends to remain vigilant ahead of the next round of negotiations, to ensure that talks between Washington and Tehran align with Europe’s security interests. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot made the comments during a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg.
Simultaneously, US Air Force Commander Gen. David Allvin revealed on his X account that he recently met with his Israeli counterpart, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, at the Pentagon. The IDF had not previously disclosed the Air Force commander’s trip to the US.
Based on Jerusalem’s concerns, it is likely that the bulk of Israel-US discussions center on one question: What happens if diplomatic efforts with Iran collapse?
The negotiations – or the illusion of them – between the US and Iran are unfolding amid a global storm of economic and security uncertainty. Israel is attempting to exert influence but is also preparing for the possibility that it may have to face the Iranian threat alone.
Is a resolution possible? Yes. Is escalation likely? Not unlikely.
The writer is the CEO of Radios 100FM, an honorary consul general of Nauru, deputy dean of the Consular Diplomatic Corps, president of the Israeli Radio Communications Association, and a former correspondent for NBC News.
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