Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s centre-left Labor Party was projected to win over the conservative opposition, Sky News Australia and the Australian Broadcasting Corporation said as early vote counting showed Labor in a strong position.
Broadcasters Sky News Australia and Seven projected that the conservative Liberal and National coalition could not win government, based on early counting, while the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s election analyst Antony Green said Labor had won.
Cost-of-living pressures and concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump’s volatile policies had been among the top issues on voters’ minds.
Defence Minister Richard Marles told broadcaster Seven that early results were encouraging and that Labor regaining majority government “remains a possibility and it is what we are trying to achieve.”
Opinion polls had shown Labor ahead, after trailing in the polls as recently as February to Peter Dutton’s conservative coalition.
As counting got underway, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the Labor government had been “in all sorts of trouble” at the end of 2024 but got back into the contest because of Albanese’s strong campaign performance, policies that addressed concerns about the cost of living and the Trump effect.
“The economy became a positive from a negative — the interest rate cut was part of the story,” he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
The central bank cut rates in February, on the eve of the election being called, reversing course after 13 interest rate rises that had ratcheted up home mortgage repayments for households.
“The sense of the influence of American politics” had also helped, he added.
‘Trump factor’
Opposition Liberal Party spokesperson Sen. James Paterson defended the conservative campaign, which he also said was negatively affected by “the Trump factor.”
“It was devastating in Canada for the conservatives…. I think it has been a factor here, just how big a factor will be determined in a few hours’ time,” he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
The expected bounce in the centre-left Labor Party’s fortunes mirrors those of Canada’s Liberal Party, which returned to power this week in a come-from-behind victory after Trump’s tariffs and remarks on Canadian sovereignty sparked a backlash from voters.
Preferences among supporters of Australia’s minor parties and independents could be crucial under the country’s ranked-choice voting system. In the 2022 election, the primary vote split nearly equally among Labor, the Liberal-Nationals and “others.” Analysts predicted a third of voters would again opt for independents and minor parties in Saturday’s election.
