For Aydee Martinez and her teenaged son, the risk calculation between COVID-19 and the vaccine flipped on Wednesday. She’d heard people say it’s bad to get the shots, he’d seen commentary about them on the internet. Then people they knew started getting sick. Some of them died.
It was as simple as that. Not cash prizes or free tickets to amusement parks tempting them to get the shots, or employers insisting they do.
“Part of my dad’s family in Mexico, they had COVID and they all passed away,” said Martinez’ 16-year-old son, Jesus Perez, after getting his first Pfizer shot Wednesday at a Gardner Health Services clinic in San Jose. “Because of that, I was afraid that my family might get it, so I want them to be protected.”
Vaccinations have risen sharply in California and across the U.S. in recent weeks amid rapidly multiplying outbreaks spawned by the highly contagious delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19. The surge in cases have alarmed health and government officials into taking more aggressive steps to spur immunizations.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the 7-day average of daily first doses administered in the U.S. increased 80.5%, from a low of 218,129 on July 7 to 393,887 on July 30. In California, that 7-day average of first doses rose 53.6%, from 29,398 on July 7 to 45,169 on July 30.
But that’s still well below the peak 7-day average of more than 2 million daily first doses administered nationally and 275,392 in California on April 11, as the shots that had been in short supply over the winter became more broadly available.
Is the recent upturn in vaccinations enough? Not really, said Dr. John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at UC Berkeley’s school of public health.
With the version of the virus that was circulating during the winter peak of COVID-19 cases in December and January, an infected person would on average spread it to about three other people. But with the now-dominant delta variant, Swartzberg said, an infected person can spread it to six or eight others.
“This exemplifies why we need to get people vaccinated ASAP,” Swartzberg said. “Although the recent percentage increase is impressive, we’re way behind where we need to be.”
That’s been evident even in the relatively well-vaccinated Bay Area. In Santa Clara County, the region’s most populous, 78% of those 12 and older who are eligible for the shots have had them. But county Supervisor Cindy Chavez called for more people to get the shots and kick that percentage up to 80.
“The coronavirus is constantly evolving and the delta variant is rapidly spreading,” Chavez said outside a San Jose clinic Wednesday. “This variant is significantly more contagious than the original virus and perhaps as contagious as the chicken pox. Vaccines remain our most powerful tool in fighting the delta variant.”
The long lines for mass vaccination sites at sports stadiums and county fairgrounds in the spring have since been replaced by a trickle of vaccine seekers at local clinics and doctor offices, with local health officials reaching out to persuade those with questions about the shots.
“Right now, we have lot of people who are vaccine hesitant,” Chavez said. “We’re going door to door, clinic to clinic. It’s a much more hands on strategy we’re using now, because we know the other wasn’t working for these folks.”
At the San Jose clinic where Martinez got her shots Wednesday, manager Sylvia LaBad said they usually give 9-10 vaccinations a day, but hit a new new high Tuesday with 14 people vaccinated at the clinic, with both appointments and walk-ins.
“They are picking up,” LaBad said.
What’s prompting more people to get the shots is debatable. Since the rate of vaccines administered began softening in the spring, state and local officials have tried a number of different strategies to convince people to get shots. On May 27, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a $116.5 million “Vax for the Win” incentive program with cash and grocery prize drawings. Sponsored vacation giveaways and free amusement park tickets followed in June.
That didn’t seem to motivate many more takers. The 7-day average of daily first doses in the state fell from 83,060 on May 27 to 29,398 on July 9, a 65% drop.
State and national leaders have since applied more pressure on vaccinated and unvaccinated alike as outbreaks worsened over July. Several California counties recommended everyone wear face masks indoors. The CDC also made that recommendation nationally last Tuesday, followed soon after by California’s public health department, citing a worrisome new study of the delta variant’s transmissibility. Bay Area counties made indoor masks an order this week.
Bay Area counties also urged employers to require their workers to be vaccinated or tested regularly, a step Santa Clara County said it would adopt for its own workforce. Newsom followed with a requirement for the state’s 246,000 employees, and all health care workers. President Biden last week said he would require federal workers to be vaccinated as well.
LaBad thinks the workplace requirements are a big reason her clinic is seeing more people asking for the shots. She said a group of eight or nine construction workers recently showed up together after work one afternoon to get vaccinated.
Swartzberg agreed that more and more restrictions on the unvaccinated — mandates, vaccine verification requirements or restricted access at restaurants and other venues — have had an effect.
But another huge factor has been the summer delta surge and subsequent increasing hospitalizations and deaths, primarily among the unvaccinated.
That’s what finally drew Martinez to get the Johnson and Johnson shot Wednesday — the first in her family to get the jab. She’s seen a lot of people get very sick with COVID-19, and worried about her exposure and about her other son, who at age 9 is too young to be immunized.
“It’s scary,” Martinez said through an interpreter. “So it’s better to be safe than to get COVID.”