The temptation to advance a No. 16 seed is understandable, but finding a viable one really is a fool’s errand. After all, No. 1 seeds enjoy a 139-1 record over No. 16 seeds since 1985, when the field expanded to 64 teams. Since 2011, the first year for the current 68-team field, No. 1 seeds have outscored No. 16 seeds by 20 or more points in 20 out of 36 contests. Just four of those 36 games were decided by single digits.
However, it’s worth noting that this year’s No. 16 seeds, as a group, are the strongest they have been since 2015. They are, on average, just 1.1 net points per 100 possessions worse than their opponents; a huge accomplishment considering that the No. 16 seeds have averaged an adjusted net rating of negative two or worse in seven of the past nine tournaments. It’s still a massive long shot that any of these extreme Cinderellas will make it out of the first round. But if you are going to throw caution to the wind and select a No. 16 seed to do something miraculous again, here is a quick guide.
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s/Texas Southern (East)
Chance at upset: 3 percent
Guard Damian Chong Qui and forward Nana Opoku are the focal points of the Mount St. Mary’s offense. Chong Qui handles the ball during the pick-and-roll and in isolation while Opoku either rolls to the basket, posts up opponents or acts as a spot-up shooter. Still, the Mount St. Mary’s offense only manages 96.1 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for strength of schedule. That’s almost certainly not enough to hang with Michigan even without the injured Isaiah Livers.
Texas Southern’s offense is not much better (99.7 points per 100 possessions) but the Tigers’ defense is certainly worse — they allows 104.3 points per 100 possessions — making them a supreme long shot to advance.
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 16 Drexel (Midwest)
Chance at upset: 2 percent
Drexel is back in the NCAA tournament for the first time in 25 years, and the Dragons like to play slow, averaging 19.3 seconds per offensive possession. They also like to get the ball to a spot-up shooter in the half court, which has served them well, with a 52 percent effective field goal rate. But the Fighting Illini had one of the nation’s best defenses against spot-up shooters this season, allowing 0.8 points per possession, which placed them in the 87th percentile.
No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Hartford (South)
Chance at upset: 1 percent
Hartford won the America East tournament to claim its first NCAA tournament berth, and will look to seniors Austin Williams and Traci Carter against heavyweight Baylor. Williams leads the Hawks in scoring (13.6 per game) and is their main threat in transition, averaging 1.1 points per play. Carter is adept at running the pick-and-roll, scoring 40 percent of the time when he takes the ball in his own hands.
Baylor, however, is one of the best teams at forcing turnovers, which should put plenty of pressure on Hartford’s guards.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Norfolk State/Appalachian State (West)
Chance at upset: less than 1 percent
Norfolk State heads into the tournament on a six-game winning streak, but the Spartans haven’t shown they can slow down any opponent, much less the country’s top team. Opponents are averaging just 16 seconds per possession against Norfolk State, a full second shorter than the Division I average. Against a lightning-fast and efficient offense like Gonzaga’s, that’s a fatal flaw.
Appalachian State returns to the NCAA tournament after a 20-year hiatus. The Mountaineers have just the 227th-most efficient offense and the 205th-most efficient defense in the nation, per Ken Pomeroy. They also allow opponents to grab 31 percent of their misses for second-chance opportunities. Again, that’s a weakness that would surely be exploited by the overall top seed in the tournament.
Which means UMBC’s claim on history is probably safe for another year.
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