SpaceX is the most valuable privately held company in the world, estimated to be worth $350 billion. Too bad you cannot buy its shares on the stock market today. All the gains and value generated by SpaceX have been reserved for insiders, venture capitalists, and the company’s employees. Seeing these gains without being able to get in on them might be frustrating for investors who don’t have access to the venture capital market.
All may not be lost, though. If you truly want to invest in SpaceX, a copycat business in Rocket Lab (RKLB 9.43%) may be for you. Here’s why anyone clamoring to buy SpaceX stock should seriously consider Rocket Lab for their portfolio instead.
National defense launch programs
Rocket Lab is a niche space company, but one that is nipping on SpaceX’s heels. It is the only other company to reliably launch rockets for customers at scale, with its Electron program consistently launching for customers every quarter. The company has won contracts from commercial and government buyers because of how small the Electron rocket is. SpaceX’s systems are not meant for a nimble or small payload, which is how Rocket Lab attacked the market previously monopolized by SpaceX.
These capabilities have allowed Rocket Lab to win contracts for national defense systems such as HASTE (Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron), which helps the government test hypersonic defense capabilities. These reliable contracts are only growing, with huge potential for more government spending on space defense in the years to come. For example, the proposed Golden Dome missile defense system is expected to cost $175 billion, and Rocket Lab is in a prime position to win contracts associated with this program if it comes into being, as well as many others.
A relationship with the U.S. government for national defense priorities could be quite lucrative for Rocket Lab as it tries to take the next steps as a business. This is why it just acquired Geost — a satellite laser operator — for $275 million.
Image source: Getty Images.
Betting big on the Neutron rocket
Looking ahead, Rocket Lab is preparing for a future in which it more directly competes with SpaceX rockets via its Neutron rocket, which will be much larger than the Electron and have a similar payload to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket system. Rocket Lab is currently testing the Neutron and hopes to be ready for commercial launches next year.
An operational Neutron rocket could lead to a massive boost for Rocket Lab’s business. It already has a proposed contract for two missions for a unnamed customer in 2026 and was signed onto the U.S. National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, which is expected to spend $5.6 billion through 2029.
This is a huge greenfield opportunity for Rocket Lab. The company already has a great reputation for safe launches, which will hopefully lead the company to win contracts for the Neutron as well. It will also help the company sell more of the space systems that it builds for its launch customers, a double whammy of revenue growth for the business.
Today, Rocket Lab’s backlog sits at just over $1 billion. If the Neutron can start safely launching for customers, we could see huge growth in the size of Rocket Lab’s backlog throughout the rest of the decade.
An expensive-looking stock
SpaceX is estimated to have a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of around 27, which is quite expensive. The average stock in the S&P 500 has a P/S ratio of 3, which takes the market cap and divides by trailing-12-month sales and is a metric used often when a company has no earnings. Rocket Lab is in a similar boat to SpaceX. It has a P/S ratio of 28.5, which has grown as the stock has soared in the last 12 months.
RKLB PS Ratio data by YCharts
Rocket Lab may grow into its valuation if the Neutron is successful and revenue goes up tenfold over the next 10 years. However, the company has an expensive-looking P/S ratio today and has never made a profit. This makes it a risky gambit to put your money in.
If you really want to invest in the space economy, Rocket Lab is a good way to play this trend. However, the stock is expensive and does not come without risks.
Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab USA. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
