Yesterday, The Washington Post published what can only be described as a hit piece on the nominee for Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright. The Post took issue with Wright’s claim that:
“[R]eports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) actually show no increase in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes.”
The Post claimed that Wright was misrepresenting the most recent IPCC assessment report. [emphasis, links added]
But rather than quoting the IPCC itself to show where Wright may have been wrong, The WashPost instead relied on a characterization of the IPCC from one of its contributors (emphasis added):
“He [Wright] is demonstrably misrepresenting [the IPCC] report,” said [Jim] Kossin, who said the IPCC report shows warming is making storms more intense. “It is extremely easy to show that. It is all there in black and white. There is no gray area.”
Let’s do what The Post did not and take a look at what the IPCC actually concluded about trends in tropical cyclones:
“There is low confidence in most reported long-term (multidecadal to centennial) trends in TC frequency- or intensity-based metrics . . .”
Sounds like there might be a bit of a grey area, no?
Take it also from MIT’s Kerry Emanuel, who is more bullish on human influences on tropical cyclones than the IPCC or most of his peers, but also recognizes that current understandings are far from black and white:
“At present, there is little scientific consensus about trends in global or regional [tropical cyclone] activity, either in the past, as detected in observations or in climate model simulations, or in the future as our climate continues to change.”
The Post’s reporting reminds us that there is a lot of misinformation out there related to climate, and hurricanes in particular.
With The Washington Post and an IPCC author apparently willing to misrepresent what the IPCC concluded on hurricanes in service of a political hit, it can be very difficult for curious nonexperts to know what’s what.
Today I share a range of data summarizing the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, with a focus on continental U.S. landfalls.
Given how polluted the information environment is around climate, I encourage you to check and challenge the data. In 2024, relying on “scientists say” is, regrettably, not a particularly reliable way to the truth.
Season Summary
The figure and table above show summary statistics for overall seasonal activity. By all metrics, 2024 was a very active season in historical context — the 12th most active in the past 74 years or about the 85th percentile.
The continental U.S. saw five hurricane landfalls — 2 major (Category 3+ = Helene and Milton) and 3 minor (Categories 1 and 2 = Beryl, Debby, and Francine).
Based on work in progress (with the inestimable Jessica Weinkle), we estimate that the continental U.S. saw about $89 billion in direct economic losses from these five storms, which is exclusive of inland flood damages — following the methodology of our 2018 paper on normalized hurricane losses, which we are currently updating through 2024 for submission to a peer-reviewed journal.
In terms of human impacts beyond the economy, 2024 was particularly deadly for inland flooding, with approximately 400 people perishing due to the storms — especially Hurricane Helene in the Appalachian mountains.
That is the most storm-related deaths since 2005 and Hurricane Katrina. Almost 20 years ago we published a paper arguing that inland flooding from hurricanes was an underappreciated threat.
Continental U.S. Landfall Trends Since 1900
The figures above show long-term trends in continental U.S. hurricane landfalls.
The last eight years have seen a lot of major hurricane landfalls. The eight years before that saw none.
Since 1900 there have been no trends in either variable.
Trends in North Atlantic and Global Storm Intensity
The figure above shows ACE [accumulated cyclone energy] per hurricane in the North Atlantic since 1900. There is considerable variability, but no overall trend (dashed red line). By this metric, North Atlantic hurricanes have not overall become more intense since 1900.
The figure above shows the same variable — ACE per hurricane — globally and shows no trend since 1980 (which is the first year available from CSU, based on data quality issues prior to that).
Note that while the North Atlantic was active in 2024, most of the rest of the world saw a relatively inactive year by recent historical standards.
But what if you really, really want to show alarming, upward trends? Here is what you do: Using ACE, identify the most inactive period for North Atlantic hurricane activity in the past 125 years. That happens to be the period 1970 to 1979.
Then, start a trend analysis in 1970. Voila!
The Honest Broker is written by climate expert Roger Pielke Jr. and is reader-supported. If you value what you have read here, please consider subscribing and supporting the work that goes into it.
Roger Pielke Jr. has been a professor at the University of Colorado since 2001. Previously, he was a staff scientist in the Environmental and Societal Impacts Group of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He has degrees in mathematics, public policy, and political science, and is the author of numerous books. (Amazon).
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