Voters’ diploma divide widens even as college gets cheaper

Many people feel “that they’re not getting enough back, that a college education isn’t worth enough,” said Paul Peterson, a professor of education policy and governance at Harvard University. “But that’s contradicted by the data. The data says that college education is worth more than ever.”

The dissonance shows how higher education has become another slice of the economy where the vibes are worse than the numbers might suggest — and risks exacerbating Democratic losses with working-class voters.

People without a college degree leaned Democratic in 2008, according to exit polls. But this year, 63% supported President-elect Donald Trump, NBC News exit polls found. While he and Vice President Kamala Harris each courted working-class voters, those with a high school education or less were more likely to both voice economic concerns and trust Trump to address them. Voters who said inflation caused them severe hardship backed him 74% of the time.

The electorate’s gender divide is also mirrored in college enrollments. Men represented just 42% of undergraduates on four-year campuses in 2022, down from 47% in 2011, Pew researchers found last year. White men without college degrees were among Trump’s strongest backers.

There are many reasons why improving college affordability may not register widely.

Median inflation-adjusted earnings for 25- to 34-year-olds without college credentials have risen in the last decade, Pew found, but the wage gap hasn’t narrowed because college grads’ pay has swelled, too. The gulf is wide: In 2022, bachelor’s degree holders made an average of 59% more than those who only graduated high school, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

“We’ve got an economy which, if you have a higher level of education, you’re almost recession-proof and inflation-proof,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Inflation disproportionately squeezes lower-income households, which spend more of their income on necessities, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank researchers found last year.

Given other budget pressures — from child care to car insurance — college expenses simply might not have fallen enough to matter. They are still “a real burden for a lot of students,” said Robin Isserles, a sociology professor at the Borough of Manhattan Community College in New York City, where Trump gained ground. Voters in Staten Island and Long Island’s Nassau County, for example, supported him at higher margins in this election than they did four years ago.

For many lower-income households, “even the relatively inexpensive tuition is just more than what they can handle,” Isserles said. But she speculates that the broader political realignment “is not about inflation right now.”

“I’ve always taught students on the economic margins,” she said, many of whom have long struggled to balance work and school, even when they know it will pay off.

Ashley Koning, who directs the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, said she was shocked by the election results in her home state of New Jersey, which Harris won by Democrats’ narrowest margin since 1992.

“I mean, goodness gracious, we’re being labeled a potential swing state now,” Koning said. Something else surprised her, too: In her pre-election polling, 65% of New Jerseyans flagged difficulty affording education.

It’s true that advertised tuition and fees for full-time undergrads have risen at public and private campuses alike, according to the College Board. And four-year colleges in blue and purple states including New Jersey, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania — where Republicans also made inroads this year — have been posting some of the steepest tuition in the country.

But relatively few students shoulder those full sticker prices. A 2022 Sallie Mae survey found that applicants often aren’t well versed in the financial aid process, and just 18% were aware that many students wind up paying far less than schools’ listed tuition.