By Alun John and Ankur Banerjee
LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar hit new multi-month highs against the euro and the pound on Thursday, the first day of 2025 trading, as it built on last year’s strong gains on expectations U.S. interest rates will remain high relative to peers.
The euro fell to as low as $1.0314, its lowest since November 2022, down around 0.3% on the day. It is now down nearly 8% since its late September highs above $1.12, one major victim of the dollar’s recent surge.
Traders anticipate deep interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four 25 basis point cuts, while not being certain of even two such moves from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The dollar was hitting milestones across the board and the pound was last down 0.65% at $1.2443, its lowest since April, with its fall accelerating after it broke through resistance around $1.2475.
“It’s more of the same at the start of the new calendar year with the dollar continuing to extend its advances in anticipation of Trump putting in place friendly policies at the start of his term,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies are widely expected to not only boost growth but also add to upward price pressure. That will lead to a Fed cautious about cutting rates too much further, in turn underpinning U.S. Treasury yields and boost dollar demand.
A weaker growth outlook outside the U.S., conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have also added to demand for the dollar.
The dollar also reversed an early loss on Thursday to climb against the Japanese yen, and was last up 0.17% at 157.26.
It reached a five-month high above 158 yen in late December, potentially putting pressure on the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates early this year, but possibly not immediately.
“If dollar/yen were to break above 160 ahead of the next BOJ meeting, that could be a catalyst for the BOJ to hike in January rather than wait until March,” said Hardman.
“Though for now markets are leaning towards March after the dovish comments from (governor Kazuo) Ueda at his last press conference.”
Even those who are more cautious about sustained dollar strength think it could take a long time to play out.
“The dollar may be vulnerable – but only if the U.S. data confound market expectations that the Fed doesn’t cut rates more than once in the first half of this year, and not by more than 50bp in the whole of 2025,” said Kit Juckes chief FX strategist at Societe Generale (OTC:) in a note.
“There’s a good chance of that happening, but it seems very unlikely that cracks in U.S. growth will appear early in the year – hence my preference for taking any bearish dollar thoughts with me into hibernation until the weather improves.”
languished at 14-month lows as worries about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy, the prospect of U.S. import tariffs from the Trump administration and sliding local yields weighed on investor sentiment. [CNY/]
Elsewhere, the Swiss franc, another victim of the recent dollar strength, gave back early gains to last trade flat at 0.90755 per dollar. >
The Australian and New Zealand dollars, however, managed to break away from two-year lows touched on Tuesday. The was 0.36% higher at $0.6215 having dropped 9% in 2024, its weakest yearly performance since 2018. [AUD/]
The rose 0.47% to $0.5614.
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