Euro 2025 is into the quarterfinals as eight teams have gone home after the group stage and eight are left with the chance to get their hands on the trophy. But how likely is each one to win the tournament?
The question seems simple enough, but it mixes in all manner of elements: star quality, squad depth, national confidence, weaknesses, tactical approaches, injuries and — perhaps most importantly now — bracketology, too. Some nations have landed in a really sweet spot with regard to a potential pathway to the final.
But who are the favorites now? We’ve ranked all eight teams left in Switzerland this summer. Let’s dive in.
Finished bottom of a tough group in their first-ever tournament, but never looked close to competing as they conceded 13 goals.
The fans were incredible, but their team was not. Not a single point in a relatively open Group A.
Three games, three defeats. Denmark would have expected to do a lot better in Group C.
A late draw vs. Italy gave them hope, but then they lost to Belgium in Group B.
Defeats to Germany and Sweden without scoring a goal made it a tough first tournament, but Poland showed great belief to beat Denmark 3-2 in Group C.
A win, draw and loss was not enough to progress from Group A.
The defeat to Italy was really what knocked them out, though they showed some fight in Group B.
After beating Wales and losing to England in Group D, they were ahead against France and could have caused a shock. But then they capitulated in the second half.
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How Switzerland saved their Euro 2025 hopes
Take a look at the numbers behind Switzerland’s 1-1 draw against Finland to secure their spot in the Euro 2025 quarterfinals at their home tournament.
Making it past the group stage was a great achievement for the hosts. In a fairly even group, they did enough with a draw, win and loss. However, their second-place finish means they were drawn against the winners of Group B (Spain) and therefore have the toughest quarterfinal draw. Their chances of winning against the world champions are slim, but the country has really got behind the team this summer, so they’ll be motivated to cause an upset.
Norway navigated the group stage fairly comfortably, with three wins from three, but the rest of the tournament is unlikely to be so forgiving. We have to give the edge to Italy in their upcoming quarterfinal, though a place in the semifinals isn’t out of the question for a nation with a proud history in European Championships (two-time winners and four-time runners-up, most recently in 2013).
This quarterfinal is unlikely to mirror the Euro 2022 semifinal that saw Sweden lose 4-0 to England. They are a seasoned team, who scored four against Germany, and won all three of their group games. But facing the reigning champions is not the draw that Sweden wanted, so it will be a tough ask for them to make the last four.
Germany looked confident until their final group game, where it all fell apart after a costly red card in a 4-1 defeat to Sweden. Now they find themselves on the tougher side of the bracket, facing France next and then the winner of Spain vs. Switzerland. That means they’ll need to get past two of the world’s top-ranked sides just to reach the final. Their quarterfinal against France is hard to call, with both teams evenly matched, but the prospect of meeting Spain next in the semis puts Germany lower in the rankings.
Topping Group D hasn’t guaranteed France an easy route to the final and finishing second would have offered them a more favorable draw. Despite cruising comfortably through the group stage with three wins from three, upsetting England in the opening game, France now face a daunting path. They’ll need to overcome Germany and, if successful, will likely then have to contend with Spain next. Like Germany, it makes their progression to the final far from certain.
Arguably, the Azzure have the most favorable quarterfinal matchup. By finishing second in Group B, they now face the winners of Group A, a group that featured four lower-ranked teams. With Norway as their quarterfinal opponents, they have a strong chance of reaching the semifinal, though a likely meeting with the winner of England vs Sweden would present a much tougher obstacle. Still, making it to the semifinal would mark Italy’s best tournament performance this century and they have beaten Germany and Spain in recent years… so anything is possible.
After their opening loss to France, the conversation around England was whether they’d even make it out of the group stage. But following their emphatic 4-0 win over Netherlands, the narrative quickly shifted to talk of them going all the way. Finishing second in the group actually turned out to be an advantage as it placed them on the easier side of the draw, with Sweden first and then either Italy or Norway in the semis, as they avoided both eight-time champions Germany and reigning world champions Spain. Thanks to the bracket, the defending champions now have a genuine shot at reaching another final.
With three convincing wins from three games, it’s no surprise Spain remain favorites for the title. They cruised into the quarterfinals, but their path is far from simple. Hosts Switzerland will be roared on by the home support, and a potential semifinal against the winner of France vs. Germany promises to be challenging. Still, this Spain side have shown they can beat anyone on their day and look well placed to finally claim the one trophy that has eluded them.
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