Euro 2025 kicks off on July 2, when 16 women’s teams will have the chance to get their hands on the iconic trophy. But how likely is each one to win the tournament?
The question seems simple enough, but it mixes in all manner of elements: Star quality, squad depth, national confidence, weaknesses, tactical approaches, injuries and — perhaps most importantly for those below the top eight — bracketology, too. Some nations have landed in really sweet spots with regard to a potential pathway into the quarterfinals (or beyond).
Who are the favorites? Who’s got no chance? Amid the ongoing UEFA Women’s Nations League campaign, we’ve ranked all 16 teams who will travel to Switzerland this summer. Let’s dive in, and we’ll re-assess after the final round of Nations League matches at the start of June.
In their first-ever major tournament, Wales are one of the biggest underdogs. A debutant winning the Euros at their first attempt would be nothing short of a miracle. It doesn’t help that they’ve landed in the toughest group alongside England, France and Netherlands, who are all ranked in the top eight of FIFA’s world rankings. Meanwhile, Wales sit 31st — the lowest of any team in the tournament. This summer is less about lifting the trophy and more about gaining experience and laying foundations for the future.
Much like Wales, Poland’s hopes of winning the trophy in their tournament debut is a long shot. They’ve bounced between Nations Leagues A and B since the competition began, which suggests they have promise but little consistency. Indeed, their inability to win a single game in League A so far shows they aren’t quite ready to mount a serious challenge for the Euros just yet. With star striker Ewa Pajor of Barcelona leading the line, they have potential but it likely isn’t their moment.
Switzerland have talent but are still a step behind Europe’s elite. In fact, while it’s a tough question, it’s worth asking: if they weren’t the hosts, would they have qualified at all? Recent defeats to Spain (7-1) and Germany (6-0) casts doubt on their ability to mix it, though they did beat France 2-1 in October. Automatic qualification gives them a seat at the table, but their chances of winning on home soil look slim at best even if they are in the easiest group with Norway, Iceland and Finland.
Portugal impressed during their World Cup debut last summer and are now into their third major tournament in a row. They finished bottom of their group at Euro 2017 and 2022, but have shown flashes of potential in the Nations League, where they caught both England and Spain briefly off guard with quick, counter-attacking football. Likely to be without star players Kika Nazareth and Jéssica Silva through injury, sustaining that level of play over a full tournament and shutting down the world’s best attacking sides feels like a stretch.
Finland have been regulars at the Euros, missing only the 2017 edition, since they debuted in 2005. Their debut was their best result, reaching the semifinal, but they’ve never matched that since and it’s hard to picture this being the year they break that ceiling. They are ranked 25th in the wporld by FIFA and have consistently handled teams below or around them, but have been unable to beat top-tier opposition. Paired with Switzerland (23), Iceland (13) and Norway (15), there’s a chance to match their best tournament performance. But anything beyond that would be a surprise.
When you have a player like Pernille Harder, anything feels possible. The 32-year-old Bayern Munich midfielder is a gamechanger, capable of turning matches on her own, but that’s also Denmark’s biggest dilemma as one player can’t carry their entire campaign. They sit squarely in the middle of the pack: strong enough to qualify, but not quite built to go deep. Getting out of the group will be a battle and will likely depend on their clash with Sweden. Going much further? That would take something special.
Norway boast an incredible roster — with the likes of Ada Hegerberg, Guro Reiten, Caroline Graham Hansen, Maren Mjelde, Celin Bizet and Ingrid Engen — and, on paper, they’re contenders. But on the pitch, it’s been a different story. Once a dominant force in women’s football with Euros (1987, 1993), World Cup (1995) and Olympic (2000) success behind them, their performances in recent tournaments have been disappointing. Since 2010, they’ve struggled to recapture that winning edge — culminating in an 8-0 thrashing by England in 2022 — and hope for change with new manager Gemma Grainger at the helm. If they can top Group A then they should be able to avoid Spain until the final but they have solve that inconsistency.
Italy are a team of contradictions; they’ve got talent, tradition and flashes of brilliance but have also struggled to keep pace as other nations have surged ahead in both investment and development. In a group with Spain, Portugal and Belgium, they have a shot at making the knockouts if they can put some performances together. They’re unpredictable, but that uncertainty leans more towards inconsistency than potential to cause an upset right now.
Sweden have always had the ingredients for success: experienced players competing at top clubs across Europe and a history of going deep in tournaments. They won the Euros in 1984 and reached the semifinals in 2022, and certainly have the quality to do it again, but something has been missing lately. Sweden have not failed to qualify for the Euros since the group stage was introduced in 1997, but a shaky run through this qualifying campajgn forced them into the playoffs, where they had to overcome Serbia. A quarterfinal appearance feels likely if they can beat Denmark, but they won’t go deeper unless they can rediscover their rhythm and consistency.
Belgium have shown flashes of brilliance in the Nations League, sneaking up on higher-ranked teams and earning some notable results. And despite a heavy 5-0 loss to England, Belgium bounced back with a 3-2 win in the return fixture. While inconsistency has historically held them back, they’ve got young, hungry talent eager to make their mark and are led by the experienced 32-year-old striker Tessa Wullaert, who is closing on 100 goals for her country. With Spain and Portugal in both their Nations League and Euros group (alongside Italy), they’ll have some valuable insight heading into the tournament. If they’ve done their homework, Belgium could be primed for a knockout-stage push on the good side of the draw.
It’s hard to imagine any team outside the top five below lifting the trophy this summer, but as the highest-ranked side in Group A, Iceland hold a stronger hand than most. If they can top the group, they’ll face the runner-up from Spain’s Group B (likely Belgium) before an incredible semifinal appearance likely to be against one of the elite. It’s a tough road, but Iceland are on the rise, both in ability and world ranking. We could be hearing the famous “Thunderclap” for some time in Switzerland!
Champions under current England boss Sarina Wiegman in 2017, Netherlands are still loaded with world-class talent, but have struggled to replicate their previous form. Despite the quality in their squad, finding cohesion and form has been a challenge. Drawn into the tournament’s toughest group alongside England and France — who are both title contenders — the Dutch will have to dig deep just to get through. But if they can progress from the group, they’ll have held their own against two of the biggest threats in the tournament and a second-placed spot could see them avoid Spain in the knockouts until the final.
France have never won a major tournament. For decades, they have been one of the powerhouses of women’s football, consistently ranked among the top teams since 1964. Yet, they sit 11th in the world — having once been ranked as high as 2nd before a dramatic fall. The team have long had promise but limited payoff, and defeat to Brazil at the Olympics marked the seventh time from their last eight appearances at a major tournament in which they have failed to progress past the quarterfinals. On paper, the squad have the experience, depth and technical quality to go the distance. Whether they can shake off their history of underachievement is the big question.
The reigning European champions come into the tournament as one of the top contenders, but with more question marks than they had two years ago. Injuries have ravaged their squad, defensive instability has crept in, and the formula that carried them to glory in 2022 hasn’t quite clicked in the lead-up to this summer. Yes, they reached the World Cup final last year and fell just short against Spain, but since then it’s been a turbulent ride.
And yet, there’s something about England at major tournaments: a grit, a resilience, an uncanny ability to rise when it matters. They are unpredictable, capable of brilliance one game, and shaky the next, and that’s their biggest issue. Their biggest obstacle isn’t the opposition, it’s their own inconsistency. But count them out at your peril. Finishing top of the group would likely pit them against Spain in the semifinals though.
Germany were once the undisputed queens of Europe, with seven titles to their name (eight if you count West Germany’s win in 1989). They came painfully close again in 2022, narrowly losing the final to England, and you can’t help but wonder how things might’ve played out had star striker Alexandra Popp not pulled up injured in the warm-up. Now, for the first time since her debut, Germany head into a major tournament without Popp, following her retirement from international duty. Combine that with their shock early exit from the 2023 World Cup, and the odds seem stacked against them. Still, this is Germany. Their squad is brimming with exciting talent, and the Nations League offers a vital platform to rebuild momentum. Underestimate them and you’ll likely pay the price.
With a World Cup and Nations League title under their belt in the past 18 months, Spain are missing just one major piece from their trophy cabinet: the European Championship. And make no mistake, they want it.
Currently ranked the best team in Europe [and only behind the USWNT globally], Spain have reached an entirely new level. Their depth is staggering; even with injuries, the drop-off in quality from first XI to bench is almost unnoticeable. At the last Euros, internal strife with the federation cast a shadow over their campaign, a conflict that erupted after the World Cup and culminated in the conviction of former RFEF president Luis Rubiales. But now, with most of the off-field chaos behind them, the focus is purely on football.
Spain have not just weathered the storm, they’ve thrived in spite of it. This summer in Switzerland, they aren’t just favorites, they’re the team to beat.
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