Flagg vs. Broome: Debating the national player of the year race todayheadline

At the midway point of the 2024-25 men’s college basketball season, the player of the year race seemed just about over. Auburn’s Johni Broome was the best player on the best team in the country, averaging career highs in points, rebounds and assists while blocking nearly three shots per game.

Then everything changed on Jan. 11.

Broome suffered an ankle injury against South Carolina, while Duke’s Cooper Flagg had one of the biggest breakout games of any freshman in college basketball history: 42 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists in a win over Notre Dame. While Broome ultimately missed only two full games with his injury, what appeared to be a coronation for the big man suddenly turned into an actual race.

For most of the past couple of months, neither player gave an inch. Flagg produced a historic January, and Broome consistently put up massive numbers against the No. 1 schedule and the No. 1 league in the country. In the past week, however, Flagg has pulled away while Broome has produced back-to-back single-digit scoring efforts.

Is the race over? ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make the case for — and against — both Flagg and Broome. Who do they pick for national player of the year, after all is said and done?

The case for Flagg

Flagg has lived up to the hype. Anointed as the No. 1 player in his high school class and the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft from the moment he reclassified in August of 2023, Flagg has not disappointed. We caught some flak initially for picking Flagg as the No. 1 player in college basketball entering the season over 2024 ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis, but the debate ended quickly once the season started.

Flagg has put together one of the best freshman seasons of all time, winning ACC Rookie of the Week honors 11 times and sweeping Rookie of the Week and Player of the Week honors five times. He set an ACC freshman record with 42 points against Notre Dame in January, and he has scored at least 20 points on 13 occasions. He had 26 points and 11 rebounds in his third career game, against Kentucky, and 24 points on the road at Arizona a week later. He also had 22 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists in a win against Broome and Auburn.

And, despite those huge games in the opening weeks of the campaign, Flagg has been even better in ACC play. He’s second in the ACC in scoring (21.5 PPG), 10th in rebounding (7.0 RPG) and seventh in assists (4.3 APG), while also ranking fourth in field goal percentage and shooting 45.1% from 3-point range. His overall numbers in the month of January were out of this world: 25.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 57.9% from the field and 42.9% from 3. Flagg’s improvement from 3-point range has taken his game to a different level. He went from shooting 25.9% from beyond the arc in November and 27.3% in December to 42.9% in January and 50% in February.

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National player of the year: Cooper Flagg or Johni Broome?

Take a look at some of Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome’s numbers as they go head-to-head for the Wooden Award.

Then there’s the defensive numbers. Flagg entered college with a reputation as an elite off-ball defender who covers ground incredibly quickly. And that has remained the case. He ranks in the top 25 in the ACC in both block percentage and steal percentage, and his defensive instincts are one of the main reasons Duke has one of the top five defenses in college basketball. He’s second in defensive win shares according to Basketball Reference, third in defensive box plus/minus and second in defensive rating. Broome edges Flagg on the offensive end but is nowhere to be found in the defensive categories.

From a statistical perspective, Flagg is the clear winner. His KenPom Player of the Year rating is 2.911 — the highest rating in the site’s database dating back to 2012-13.

The final point in Flagg’s favor? How both players are finishing the season. Flagg just went for 28 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 blocks and 2 steals in a win over Wake Forest as Duke is playing its most dominant basketball of the campaign. Broome, meanwhile, is struggling. He averaged just 8.5 points and 6.5 rebounds in Auburn’s previous two games.

The case against Flagg

There are two factors against Flagg.

The first is his level of competition. Auburn has played the No. 1 schedule in the country, with Broome routinely putting up massive performances against potential Final Four teams: 20 against Houston, 24 against Missouri, 16 and 14 against Tennessee, 18 and 11 against Florida, 19 and 14 against Alabama. He leads the SEC in rebounding and blocked shots and is third in scoring. Flagg doesn’t face those opponents in ACC play, given how weak the league is this season. While unlikely, if Duke loses to North Carolina (Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) and then falls in the ACC tournament, does his candidacy take a hit?

The second factor is Flagg’s late-game performances in big matchups. He has come up short in these moments in all three of Duke’s losses, to Kentucky, Kansas and Clemson.

Granted, two of those came while he was still 17 years old, so there should be some leeway. But those performances could stick out in voters’ minds. — Borzello

The case for Broome

When Bruce Pearl recruited Broome from Morehead State, he told the former Ohio Valley Conference star he’d have to earn his playing time at Auburn. Broome wholeheartedly accepted the challenge. Since his arrival, he has evolved into a superstar for an Auburn team that has enjoyed eight consecutive weeks as the No. 1 team in America and back-to-back weeks as the unanimous No. 1 squad.

His value is undeniable as a versatile threat for the top team in the country. He has averaged 18.0 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 3.3 APG and 2.4 BPG on the season. He has connected on 79% of his attempts against man-to-man schemes and has produced an 87% mark against zone, per Synergy Sports data. In Evan Miya’s offensive BPR — a measurement of a player’s on-court impact — Broome is ranked above Flagg.

But the player of the year race is often about momentum, and Broome was widely viewed as the favorite to win national player of the year until that ankle injury in January. Auburn won all three of its matchups without him, but the Tigers barely escaped Georgia in a two-point win and were down against South Carolina with two minutes to play after Broome first suffered the injury. Broome has also dealt with a shoulder problem that has cost him time on the court in other matchups.

So, the January stretch shifted the narrative in Flagg’s favor. But Broome has another strong case for the award.

He has had a few average performances recently, including four single-digit efforts and just 17 points combined in his past two games. But he’s also doing this in what might be the greatest SEC in recent college basketball history. Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology has 12 — twelve — SEC teams in the NCAA tournament. Meanwhile, the ACC (projected to get three bids per Lunardi) has weathered one of the worst years in recent league history. That should matter here.

Duke has faced just four top-50 teams on KenPom (Louisville, Clemson, North Carolina and Illinois) since defeating Auburn 84-78 at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Dec. 4, going 3-1 against that group. In the same stretch, Auburn has faced 17 top-50 KenPom teams, going 15-2 against those opponents.

Broome can’t match Flagg’s numbers. But consider his schedule and the fact that he lost his edge in this race only when he was physically unavailable. That has to count for something.

The case against Broome

The case against Broome is, quite simply, Flagg. In a close race, Flagg has seemingly separated himself over the past month. Per Evan Miya’s BPM metric, Flagg has the highest rating since 2011-12. That means he’s ranked above elite talents like Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, Jalen Brunson and Zach Edey — all of whom have won the Wooden Award.

Flagg has been masterful in every facet of the game. His “SportsCenter”-worthy dunks have impressed, along with his elite 3-point shooting, though ACC coaches will tell you he’s arguably more dominant on defense, with an ability to guard all five positions. He’s a 6-foot-9 phenom who has found a way to live up to the hype, and he just turned 18 in December.

The last time we had a race this close was in the 2019-20 season, when Dayton star Obi Toppin won the Wooden Award over Iowa star Luka Garza. Toppin carried his team on a 20-game winning streak to end the season before the 2020 NCAA tournament was canceled due to COVID-19. Garza had also been dominant, but Toppin’s effort was impossible to vote against. He was too good. And, right now, it just feels like Flagg is too good to beat in the national player of the year race. — Medcalf

Final votes

Borzello: Cooper Flagg
Medcalf: Cooper Flagg