Foreign carriers are set to return to Israel. Will sky-high airfares drop?

A gradual reduction in tensions and the recently implemented ceasefire between Israel and the Hamas terror group have prompted a number of major foreign airlines, including US carrier Delta, to announce the resumption of flight operations to Israel in the coming weeks or months.

However, the sluggish return of services along with reduced capacity will likely not make much of a difference to the exorbitant prices faced by Israeli travelers looking to book their Passover holidays in April and summer breaks in July and August.

“Services by foreign airlines are going to gradually grow and we are going to gradually see prices come down, but they are not going to be down dramatically for Passover or the August period when most Israelis are looking to book vacations with their families,” Yaneev Lanis, co-founder of online booking site Secret Flights, told The Times of Israel. “Passover period is always an expensive period to travel, and especially this year, when there is still going to be less supply than usual.”

“Passover ticket prices are going to be higher, and I wouldn’t expect prices to drop as demand will be very high and foreign airlines are planning to come back in a low capacity, which means that they will easily be able to fill up their planes and there is no reason for them to reduce prices,” Lanis said.

Ticket prices to and from Israel have more than doubled at times during the war that broke out on October 7, 2023, with the Hamas terror group’s massacre in southern Israel. Excess demand and a shortage of service resulted as foreign carriers repeatedly canceled and resumed flights to and from Israel amid rocket and drone attacks from Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and Iraq. In recent months, US airlines completely stopped flying to Israel during heightened fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, and as tensions rose in the Middle East.

That has left Israeli flagship carrier El Al as the only airline flying from Tel Aviv on direct routes to North America.

“El Al ticket prices are still very high, especially to North America, as there are a lot of fully booked flights and you can’t even book a seat, so it’s not even a matter of price,” said Lanis.

In the wake of a three-step ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that came into effect a week ago, as well as a ceasefire that started in November with the Hamas terror group in Lebanon, a raft of international airlines announced they would resume flight services to Israel starting between February and April.

“At the moment there is optimism that the return of foreign carriers will impact ticket prices,” said Shirley Cohen Orkaby, VP at Eshet Tours Group. “But in 2025 ticket prices will still be higher relative to price levels that we saw before October 7, 2023, as seat supply is set to come back slowly since foreign airlines are not returning to full capacity and schedules they operated before the war.”

“Demand in coming months will be very high, as during the war many Israelis did not travel because of reserve duty, or because their family members were fighting in the war, or because they were displaced from the south and north,” said Cohen Orkaby.

Among European carriers, Air France resumed services between Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Tel Aviv on January 25, starting with five weekly flights. Germany’s Lufthansa group and its affiliates Austrian Airlines, Swiss, Brussels Airlines, and Eurowings are set to bring back flights to Tel Aviv at a reduced schedule on February 1, while British Airways announced that it will resume some services between Tel Aviv and London from April 5.

“In the last few months, Israelis were window shopping for tickets and now they have started to shop,” said Darren Rozowsky, CEO of travel booking site lastminute.co.il. “If during the last quarter of 2024, people would book 30 days ahead on average, since January the window has grown to 50 days.”

“People have started to book for the summer, which is still expensive, and even bookings for the Sukkot holiday [in October] have already come through in the last two weeks, which is surprising,” Rozowsky added.

Direct flights to London during the Passover holiday in April average from $1,170 with Israel’s El Al and $1,750 with British Airways, and during the July and August period around $580 with El Al and $550 with British Airways, according to lastminute.co.il.

Delta Air Lines on Thursday became the first US carrier to announce a resumption of its Tel Aviv-New York route starting on April 1, ending its most recent hiatus that began at the end of July. Meanwhile, Air India announced that it will restart long-haul flight services to Tel Aviv from March 2.

With US airlines staying away, seats scarce, and fares sky-high, Israeli airline Arkia announced earlier this month that it will launch flights for the first time from Tel Aviv to New York starting February 8. The new route will be operated for an initial period of three months.

“El Al ticket prices are going to stay high as long as there are not enough alternative seats available on the market,” said Lanis. “It’s not only competition –it’s also trust.”

“It’s hard to rely on airlines that have announced that they are returning in the future, and we haven’t seen them return, because between now and April, many things can happen in the Middle East that we can’t anticipate which could easily cancel or delay their return — that’s why it’s still worth for some travelers paying El Al a premium to make sure they can fly when they need to,” he said.

Direct flights to New York average $1,200 with Delta and $1,680 with El Al during Passover, according to lastminute.co.il.

Among low-cost carriers, Hungarian airline Wizz Air restarted its London to Tel Aviv route in January, along with flights to Amman, Jordan. British low-cost carrier easyJet said it would resume flights to Israel from June 1, having most recently suspended all of its routes to Tel Aviv following Iran’s first direct attack on Israel last April.

Irish no-frills airline Ryanair plans to operate a full schedule of flights from Tel Aviv this summer if Ben Gurion Airport’s Terminal 1, which is used by low-cost carriers, reopens as planned.

Lanis, Rozowsky, and Cohen Orkaby all agreed that with the gradual resumption of flight services by foreign airlines and assuming that the Gaza ceasefire is durable, attractive airfares will be available for those who can travel in between seasons.

“Israelis are going to be able to find attractive prices between now and Passover,” said Lanis. “Another very good booking window will be from the end of Passover until the beginning of July, when the school vacation starts.”