France’s government collapsed Wednesday following a vote of no confidence in the country’s prime minister, pushing the country’s political future into chaos and exacerbating its budgetary and looming economic crises.
The successful vote means center-right Prime Minister Michel Barnier will be out of a job, and that French President Emmanuel Macron will need to find someone to replace him. That’s not expected to be an easy task: While the president nominates prime ministers in France, his picks can be ousted at any time by no confidence votes, like Barnier was. And the National Assembly, the lower house of France’s parliament, is almost evenly divided between the far right, a loosely united and contentious left wing, and centrists including Macron’s allies. Few candidates will please all three factions.
Disagreement about who should be prime minister following surprise elections this past summer led to Barnier’s rise. He was seen as a capable, if not popular, choice for the job, and won enough approval to win the prime minister’s post. But he faced a significant challenge of trying to govern without a majority. His recent attempt to push through a 2025 national budget without a vote in the lower house of parliament infuriated lawmakers on both the right and left. As a result, France’s far-right party and its left-wing alliance each put forward no-confidence motions.
Now, France is stuck. Without a prime minister, the government’s ability to pass laws is hampered. In the long term, Barnier’s removal could deepen France’s ongoing budget crisis and is a reflection of an unprecedented polarization in French politics, for which a solution seems far out of reach.
Who are the players involved?
There are three key figures in the no confidence drama: Barnier, the prime minister; Macron, France’s president; and Marine Le Pen, the ideological architect and former leader of the far-right National Rally party, who was instrumental in toppling Barnier.
Barnier, a fairly traditional French conservative, has a long career that includes stints in the French government and the European Commission, most notable as the chief Brexit negotiator on the European side. He lost Wednesday’s no-confidence vote and must resign his post. Macron could reappoint him, but he has indicated that he would not accept the job. His tenure is the shortest in modern French history.
Macron is a beleaguered, highly unpopular president. He will need to appoint another prime minister quickly to pass the government’s budget and, hopefully, prevent an economic crisis from engulfing France. (More on that below.) However, his options are limited given the dysfunction in the National Assembly.
Le Pen is Macron’s chief rival. She has long coveted the French presidency but has failed to secure it three times thus far. She could try again during the next presidential election in 2027, but may be blocked from running, depending on the outcome of a corruption trial next spring. If Macron were to resign and an early election were to happen this year, there would be nothing to bar her from entering the race — and that has led to some speculation that deposing Barnier was part of a larger plan to force Macron to quit. (He’s said he’s not going anywhere, however.)
Regardless of what Macron decides, Le Pen was able to maneuver her party’s power in the National Assembly and exercise her own influence to bring down Barnier and cause chaos in the French government. She marshaled her party to vote with the left wing coalition’s no confidence motion — even after she pushed Barnier to align with her party on key issues in exchange for her party’s approval for his budget.
“She’s annoyed with the political elites and … wants to exercise her vengeance,” Patrick Chamorel, senior resident scholar at the Stanford Center in Washington, told Vox.
Why is the government in trouble now?
France’s political turmoil didn’t exactly start with Barnier; to understand what’s happening now, we need to go back to July.
That was when France held snap parliamentary elections, following the disastrous defeat of Macron’s party in June’s European Parliament elections. Macron’s decision to hold the election was a surprise, and he hoped voters would reject the far right at home. Instead, those elections saw Le Pen’s National Rally party (or RN) gain ground, as did far-right parties across Europe.
Going into election day, it seemed all but certain that RN would trounce the various left-wing parties and Macron’s centrists. But a last-ditch effort to keep the right wing out of power formed the New Popular Front, an uneasy alliance of four left-wing parties. Now, they have the largest bloc in the National Assembly, but not enough power and support to get their chosen prime minister candidate approved by the National Assembly. Those left-wing parties have threatened a no-confidence vote against Barnier since he took office.
The fractious parliament has a major problem it needs to deal with: An enormous budget deficit, which is tied into the political crisis.
As of now, the country’s budget deficit is 6.1 percent of its output and rising, and debt is at 3.2 trillion Euro. Multiple serious crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic and energy crisis caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine — combined with slow economic growth and low tax revenues — have put the country in this position. French companies have begun layoffs, and workers are growing increasingly agitated.
Simply put, France’s economic outlook isn’t good, and if the country wants to change that, it needs a real budget that will both start bringing money into government coffers, not to mention a government that can enact policies to strengthen the overall economy.
Barnier was tasked with finding a way out; his proposed budget was supposed to save around 60 billion euros by levying large taxes on corporations and the wealthy, as well as cutting public spending including on pensions and healthcare reimbursements.
Given the French tradition of a strong social welfare state, an austerity budget was sure to be unpopular. It was. Unable to garner the RN’s support, he used his constitutional powers to pass the budget without the National Assembly’s vote — triggering no-confidence motions from the left- and the right-wing blocs.
What happens now that the government has fallen apart?
In the short term, Barnier will have to resign as prime minister, and his Cabinet will be dissolved. He’ll likely stay on until Macron can name his replacement. In France, the prime minister governs much of domestic policy while the president tends to handle international affairs.
The government will still continue its day-to-day functioning — unlike a government shutdown in the US, government services will continue. But no new laws can be passed until Macron appoints a new prime minister.
That will not be an easy task; because the National Assembly is so polarized, it will be difficult to find a candidate who will have majority support there. (The prime minister does not have to be approved by the parliament, but since blocs can trigger no confidence votes at any time, the president must appoint someone who could survive one.) France cannot hold another parliamentary election until next summer.
Both RN and the far-left party France Unbowed (also known as LFI, part of the New Popular Front coalition) have called on Macron to resign, which he says he will not do. The next French presidential election is scheduled for 2027, but both RN and LFI hope to force Macron out and run their own polarizing candidates.
In the longer term, France’s budget crisis isn’t going anywhere until there is a government in place to pass a 2025 budget, and successfully passing a new budget likely means acquiescing to Le Pen and the RN.
For now, Le Pen and her party have exercised their power in toppling the government, but Chamorel said there are downsides for her, too. “She will keep her hardline voters,” he told Vox. “But she is going to be held responsible.”
