The politicians, reality television stars and others hoping to replace Gavin Newsom as governor of California have only a few more days to make sure their names are on the ballot for the Sept. 14 recall election.
That means the most important date between now and then is this Friday, July 16 — the official filing deadline, which will determine once and for all the field of Republican challengers and whether a legitimate Democratic contender will dare to enter the race.
And while polling suggests Newsom is likely to keep his seat, battle-scarred analysts say anything could happen and there’s plenty of room for smart political maneuvering even if it doesn’t result in a victory this year.
So far, more than two dozen Republicans, including former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, former Olympian and reality star Caitlyn Jenner and once-failed GOP challenger for governor John Cox, have filed statements of their intention to run. Secretary of State Shirley Weber’s office is expected to release an official list of recall candidates on July 22.
“I would guess that we’ve seen what we’re going to see,” said Darry Sragow, a longtime Democratic strategist. “But you just never know. … We’re in a very topsy-turvy time.”
So far, one of the race’s biggest dramas is how Newsom had to sue Weber, his appointee, to fix his campaign’s oversight of not asking for his name to be linked to the Democratic Party on the recall ballot. A judge is expected to rule on that quandary Monday.
Unlike during the 2003 recall, when globally recognized actor and bodybuilder Arnold Schwarzenegger entered the fray and handily ousted a relatively unpopular Gray Davis from his perch in Sacramento, Republicans in the Golden State have yet to coalesce around a single candidate. That leaves open the (quickly shrinking) possibility that a unifying contender could join the fight and give the recall push badly needed momentum. Last week, Republican Assemblymember Kevin Kiley, a vociferous critic of Newsom who represents Rocklin and the surrounding area northeast of Sacramento, announced he would run. It’s not yet clear whether he can build the kind of coalition he’d need to succeed.
Newsom also appears safe from mutiny from within his own party with every minute that ticks by and no hint of a serious Democrat jumping into the race. More than a dozen Democrats have said they intend to run, but none with widespread name recognition. Anyone well-known in the party who stepped forward would risk becoming a persona non grata and jeopardize any future bids for higher office. Earlier in the year, there was speculation that former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa might jump in, but so far he has stayed on the sidelines.
Barring something major like a deadly wildfire or a spike in coronavirus cases that forces more closures , most analysts believe Newsom is safe. So why run?
Politicians are famous for their egos and some contenders likely think they have a real shot, regardless of what the numbers say.
“There are a lot of people who wake up and look in the mirror and think they see a possible governor,” Sragow said. “Hope springs eternal.”
But there are more strategic reasons for running, too. Regardless of who wins the recall, Californians will go back to the ballot in 2022 for a regularly scheduled election and the governor’s seat will be up for grabs again.
“There’s an argument that the recall election is really just the first primary for the 2022 campaign,” said Dan Schnur, another longtime strategist, and coming in toward the top could provide an opportunity “to establish themselves.”
If the Republican Party makes an endorsement, they risk alienating at least some of their members. As Politico reported recently, some of the more conservative members see Faulconer, the former San Diego mayor who has dominated the fundraising game on the GOP side and is an establishment favorite, as too moderate.
Another looming question is whether there will be a debate and who will participate.
“Newsom’s about as likely to join a debate as I am to start as quarterback for the 49ers this fall,” Schnur said.
But Schnur thinks there “will certainly be at least one debate” for those challenging the sitting governor. Whether they participate remains to be seen, with the debate stage offering both the chance to seize the spotlight and the risk of appearing to be part of a wacky sideshow. As in 2003, the ballot is expected to contain the names of dozens of people who have no reasonable chance of winning the race, like adult film actress Mary Carey, who ran in the Davis recall and has promised to run again. Candidates need only submit a few dozen signatures and pay a fee of roughly $4,000 — but for the first time, also cough up five years of tax returns to get on the ballot.
As wannabe governors weigh the pros and cons of joining the race, big money is already flowing, especially on Newsom’s side. Unlike his challengers, Newsom can raise unlimited funds to defend his title. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings pumped $3 million into the anti-recall campaign. The California Association of Realtors’ political action committee has kicked in $1.5 million and the state’s Building Industry Association has donated $1.1 million. Republican contender John Cox, who ran against Newsom in 2018, has dumped more than $7 million into his own campaign, and Faulconer has pulled in more than $2 million from an array of Republican backers. Other Republican hopefuls like Jenner are trailing significantly behind.
One of the key tasks now for those hoping to oust Newsom is convincing voters, who will receive mailed ballots ahead of Election Day, to care. That’s a challenge complicated by the fact that Newsom allies succeeded in scheduling the election for mid-September. That’s just after voters enjoy a summer without pandemic restrictions and before October, historically the worst month for wildfires.
“Most Californians don’t wake up every day thinking about politics,” Sragow said. “They just don’t.”
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