Short term thinking is failing us. The world continues to hurtle toward a 3°C temperature rise by the end of this century, despite promises made in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. This trajectory will be hard to change without bold action. So why are efforts to do so and political processes so short termist?
A crucial answer to this is ‘present bias’, our tendency to overvalue benefits today over costs tomorrow. In the UK, we have a habit of sidelining complex problems, and the pressure of election cycles mean politicians dodge long term decisions.
Think, for example, of the UK’s failure to prepare for the Covid-19 pandemic, or our ongoing neglect of the natural capital the economy depends on, as set out in the Dasgupta Review, undermining our long term prosperity.
It gives a voice to future generations
Future generations policy could fight these issues. This is about considering the needs of both present and future generations, since future generations cannot speak for themselves. Fundamentally, it’s about making sure our choices today do not cause unnecessary harm to our descendants.
The best example of future-focused thinking in practice is the Welsh 2015 Wellbeing of Future Generations Act. The government asked 10,000 Welsh people in a variety of locations, from town halls to living rooms, about the kind of country they would like to leave behind for future generations. Their answers shaped seven wellbeing goals, which Welsh public authorities must now follow. The act also created an independent commissioner for future generations, who scrutinises major projects, with the aim of futureproofing them for the next 20 to 30 years.
Such a policy leads to more trust, resilience and co-operation. At a time when public trust in politics and voter participation is low, this is valuable. Big Welsh successes include better co-ordination on healthcare and access to healthier food, as well as investment in transport infrastructure, and the UK’s first hospital-owned solar farm. Progress in Wales has inspired action around the world.
New Zealand developed a Wellbeing Budget in 2019, boldly using wellbeing indicators – not just economic and fiscal ones – to guide better investment and funding decisions.
Similarly, Japan has experimented with Future Design approaches, where citizens role-played as their counterparts in 2060 while helping design new policy proposals. They found that just thinking on behalf of future generations has led to better long term decision making. Last year, the UN recognised the importance of long term thinking, approving its first ever Pact for the Future, including a Declaration on Future Generations.
Thinking long term is pointless though without action. In Finland, despite having one of the world’s most sophisticated foresight programmes, findings often don’t turn into action. Without pressure to act, better understanding or connected governance, decision makers continue to ignore recommendations on long term thinking.
The UK should catch up with other countries
The UK risks falling into this trap. There are foresight projects under the government Office for Science, and the former prime minister’s Strategy Unit as well as an APPG for Future Generations have experimented with it. But there is no reliable way to hold politicians responsible for what happens beyond the next election. As pointed out by the Fairness Foundation, we tend to underestimate the benefits of committing to long term thinking on issues like wellbeing and economic growth.
Progress on this would be to create a UK future generations commissioner before the end of this parliament. Like Wales, the commissioner should be independent, with a five year term and the power to carry out long term impact assessments.
The good news is that pro-future policies are popular, as shown by research in the UK and Australia. To make the public part of this conversation, the government should consider initiating a national conversation on the future, using perspectives from across society. Why stop there? It could also explore setting up a Committee for the Future, like those in Finland and Lithuania, to scrutinise new laws through the lens of the future.
As part of a creative futures project, consultants at Superflux invited UAE government officials to smell the “air of the future”, ie the toxic, polluted air people in their country would breathe if they kept burning fossil fuels at current rates. The project made the risks real and, not long after, UAE announced a National Energy Strategy including $163 billion investment in renewable energy.
Futures thinking is powerful because it transforms distant possibilities into a visceral and shared present, that we can feel and act on. If we were to put it at the heart of policy making, we would do better at tackling our biggest challenges, with the enticing prospect of a healthier, greener and more prosperous future for everyone.
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