In a Premier League season that has almost defied logic and predictions, this campaign could end with Nottingham Forest, Brighton & Hove Albion and Fulham qualified for next season’s Champions League, and Manchester City missing out on European competition altogether.
Anyone making such a prediction last August would have had their sanity questioned, but that shocking scenario remains a firm possibility as the season boils toward a climax following this international break.
At least the title race looks settled. Liverpool will surely be crowned champions, as they hold a 12-point lead over Arsenal with only nine games to play.
The Gunners can cling to the hope that Liverpool might be running out of energy if their lifeless Wembley display against Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup final is any indicator. But that is almost certainly clutching at straws. Even if Arsenal win every remaining game, including a trip to Anfield on May 10, Liverpool can still afford to lose three times — and they’ve only been beaten once all season in league play.
Arsenal’s run-in includes home games against Fulham, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Newcastle — all talented teams. It is a good bet that the Gunners will not win all of those, even if the much-missed Bukayo Saka’s return from a long-term injury is reportedly imminent. Not bringing in another striker in January was a costly error for Arsenal — Mikel Merino is doing his best as an emergency No. 9, but it is far from ideal.
My guess is that this international break will have given Liverpool a chance to reset after a nasty few days in which manager Arne Slot suffered his first back-to back defeats since joining the club — losing against Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle — and the squad was perhaps emotionally drained. Their next assignment, a Merseyside derby against Everton, will concentrate their minds, but will be no formality given the Toffees’ excellent form since David Moyes returned as their manager.
There is no doubt Liverpool and Arsenal will clinch two of a probable five English places in next season’s Champions League — but who gets the other three slots is a puzzle even harder to solve than a Rubik’s Cube while blindfolded. The entire top half of the table is involved in this drama, and it’s impossible to know who will be sitting in the posh seats when the music stops in May.
Nottingham Forest — European champions twice under Brian Clough in the 1970s, but strugglers for the last decade or so — have been the surprise team of the season. But their lofty third position in the Premier League table is no fluke, and they look unlikely to blow their chance of returning to Europe’s elite competition as Nuno Espirito Santo’s astute management has taken Forest seven points clear of sixth place. A top-five spot looks nailed on unless nerves paralyze them during the final lap, which includes five games at the atmospheric City Ground and only four matches away.
This Forest team has no real weakness — they boast a good goalkeeper in Matz Sels, a top defensive pairing of Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic, two flying wingers in Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi, a classy No. 10 in Morgan Gibbs-White, and the goal-scoring virtuoso that is Chris Wood.
By contrast, Manchester City’s implosion has given the season an unexpected twist of a different kind. As manager Pep Guardiola puts it: “We are not what we were, but will be next season.” That sounds like a warning to the rest of the Premier League.
The fact is City’s nine defeats so far are more than in their previous two seasons combined. There’s no telling if they can even hold on to a top-five position, though a home game with doomed Leicester next in league play should calm any nerves.
The FA Cup could also provide salvation as the winner gets a Europa League place, but even here City have a tricky tie at Bournemouth on Sunday (stream LIVE, 12:25 p.m. ET, ESPN+) to negotiate in the quarterfinals. Either way, this is a City team in transition and you can expect major summer surgery with some big-name exits.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are in fourth place, and according to a bizarre claim by Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta, they have the “best attack in the country.” That might be news even to the most devout fans at Stamford Bridge.
Of the teams in the top five, Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea look the most flaky and vulnerable, especially as the injured Cole Palmer is going through a dip in form. Unconvincing since Christmas, Chelsea still have to play Liverpool and a resurgent Manchester United at home, a feisty grudge match against Tottenham, and draining trips to Newcastle and Forest. Any slip could open the door for Newcastle, where the party to celebrate their first domestic trophy in 70 years might last forever.
The international break has been good news for manager Eddie Howe, who has the job of getting Newcastle players off cloud nine and into next season’s Champions League. The lift in morale and confidence, plus the form of their key starters Bruno Guimaraes and Dan Burns, make the Magpies dangerous contenders now. Apart from a trip to Arsenal, their run-in looks manageable if Alexander Isak continues his lethal striking form.
Waiting in the wings — and definitely close enough to strike — are Brighton and Fulham.
The Seagulls had their wings clipped 7-0 at Forest, but Brighton since reeled off six wins and battled to a very decent 2-2 draw at Manchester City. They are a slick outfit with good options all over the pitch and are fueled by the midfield power of young Carlos Baleba, another player who will surely be transferred at a huge profit sometime soon.
Home games against Aston Villa, Newcastle and Liverpool might decide Brighton’s fate. They also have the welcome excitement of the FA Cup quarterfinals, in which they face Forest this weekend.
Fulham are only three points off the Champions League places after their win over Spurs before the international break, and Crystal Palace await them in the FA Cup on Saturday (stream LIVE, 8:10 a.m. ET, ESPN+). Silverware and a return to Europe are definite possibilities for a Cottagers team featuring the pacey creative work of U.S. international Antonee Robinson, who has most assists of any defender in the league. The only fly in the ointment at Craven Cottage is a difficult end to the season that includes games against six teams in the top half.
Of course, Aston Villa — buoyed by the flying form of seven-goal duo Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford since they arrived — are still very much involved in the race for European places for next season. Given their brilliant run to the quarterfinals of this season’s Champions League, a return to the competition feels even more important now. A mountainously tough tie against Liverpool’s conquerors, Paris Saint-Germain, awaits, and Asensio can play against his parent club under UEFA guidelines. One problem for Villa is an injury to striker Ollie Watkins.
The FA Cup is also very much on Villa’s radar, too, and they will certainly be favorites to beat Championship team Preston away to advance to the semifinals. A treble-hunting Villa will keep big fan Prince William on tenterhooks this spring.
Bournemouth, who have been so good to watch, have lost a little momentum of late while Brentford, despite five successive away wins, have forgotten how to win at their smart home ground at Kew Bridge. Still, don’t rule out either good side when it comes to making a late run.
Even Spurs and Manchester United, both in the bottom half after desperate seasons, can sneak into Europe’s elite completion next season through the back door by winning this season’s Europa League, though Spurs will have to be at their every best to cope with Eintracht Frankfurt. I like Man United’s chances better against Lyon after their recent improvement.
Then there’s the relegation debate. What debate? All settled. Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town will surely be making an instant return to the Championship. Wolves are nine points clear of the drop zone now and look safe. It is a concern that the three promoted clubs will almost certainly be relegated for the second season in a row, though hard to know what can be done to ease the pathway in future. Teams like Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth have shown the transition is possible with smart management and recruitment.
That non-race at the bottom of the table means this season’s Premier League movie will not get an Oscar nomination, though there is still drama left to unfold, and plenty to be decided in the final reel.
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