India and Pakistan are scrambling resources, both military and diplomatic, to respond to a crisis triggered by a massacre in Indian-controlled Kashmir that has heightened fears of a conflict between the nuclear-armed rivals.
India blames Pakistan for backing the gunmen behind the April 22 killing of 26 people, most of them Indian Hindu tourists, and has described it as a terror attack. Islamabad denies the charge.
Both countries have expelled each other’s diplomats and nationals, as well as closed their borders and shuttered airspace. India has also suspended a critical water-sharing treaty with Pakistan.
Kashmir is split between India and Pakistan and claimed in its entirety by both.
The two countries have fought two of their three wars over the Himalayan region, and their ties have been shaped by conflict, aggressive diplomacy and mutual suspicion, mostly due to their competing claims over Kashmir.
A Pakistani minister last week said his country had “credible intelligence” that an Indian strike was imminent. To this point, there has been no military action from India.
Here’s where the situation stands since the latest attack:
World leaders urge de-escalation
After an initial wave of condemnations of the attack on tourists, world leaders are calling for both sides to avoid escalation.Â
The United Nations Security Council is expected to hold closed consultations on Monday to discuss the situation.
International pressure has been piling on both New Delhi and Islamabad to ease tensions. Senior officials from the U.S., China, Russia and Saudi Arabia have urged both sides to exercise restraint.
U.S. officials are urging India and Pakistan to de-escalate tensions in the wake of a deadly attack against tourists in disputed Kashmir. Pakistan warns of an imminent military strike by India, which blames it for ‘linkages’ to the attack.
Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal wrote on X that Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday and “strongly condemned the terror attack in Pahalgam.”
Iran’s foreign minister held talks with top Pakistani officials on Monday, as Tehran has offered to help ease tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
Both nations have launched an aggressive diplomatic campaign to shore up support for their positions.
India has made efforts to highlight what it called the “cross-border link” to the attack by briefing diplomats of dozens of countries.
“The diplomatic outreach this time has been quite extensive, and the idea for India would be to showcase whatever evidence it has to its partners and to make a case that whatever actions might be coming from its side has the support of its partners and allies,” said Harsh Pant, foreign policy head at the Observer Research Foundation think-tank in New Delhi.
Pakistan has offered to co-operate with an international investigation into the attack and reached out to dozens of foreign diplomats. Islamabad, however, said that it will match or exceed any military action by India.
Tensions on the border, fears in Kashmir
The Indian army has said its troops have exchanged gunfire with Pakistani soldiers along the Line of Control in Kashmir, which divides the contested region, blaming the neighbour for unprovoked firing for 10 straight nights. Islamabad, meanwhile, has accused India of violating a ceasefire.
In Kashmir, Indian forces have launched a huge operation to hunt the April 22 attackers. At least 2,000 people have been detained and questioned. Some have been arrested under anti-terrorism laws that allow authorities to detain people without formal charges. Indian forces also blew up at least nine family homes of suspected rebels, who have been fighting for independence or merger with Pakistan.
The crackdown has led to fear and anxiety in Kashmir, stirring traumatic memories of the region’s decades-long insurgency and India’s brutal response.
“Kashmiris are always the first to bear the brunt of any political or military tensions between India and Pakistan,” said Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group.
“The collective punishment imposed on Kashmiris and the state violence unleashed against them further inflames the conflict.”
Missile tests
Pakistan’s military said Monday it test-fired a short-range missile from an undisclosed location, the second-known test launch after a medium-range missile was fired on Saturday. Such missiles are never fired toward India, and usually end up reaching the Arabian Sea or the deserts of southern Balochistan province.
India’s navy also test-fired missiles last week.
In 2019, a skirmish between the two countries almost spiralled out of control, before U.S. intervention eased tensions.
