Modern warfare requires enhanced space-based sensors capable of monitoring events happening on Earth in real time. To this end, India has recently commenced phase three of its Space-Based Surveillance (SBS) program. Under this initiative, it will place 52 surveillance and communication satellites into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geo-stationary Orbit (GEO). The ambitious project is part of New Delhi’s strategy to reduce reliance on foreign countries (like the United States and Israel) and to build an indigenous constellation of space-based sensors. Once functional, the SBS-III will significantly augment India’s space-based surveillance capability.
The SBS-I was formally initiated in 2001 with the launch of four satellites belonging to the Cartosat and Risat series. These satellites aimed at monitoring adversary forces’ maneuvers along the borders as well as important military facilities, including supply depots, airbases, and cantonments. The one meter resolution imagery produced by the satellites was accurate enough to provide important information during the India-Pakistan military standoff in 2001-02. Following the success of the SBS-I, India went ahead with its successor, the SBS-II, in 2013, consisting of six surveillance satellites, including Cartosat-2C, 2D, 3A, 3B, Microsat 1, and Risat 2A.
For the latest version, the SBS-III, India has earmarked $3.2 billion to build new-generation satellites over the next decade. India’s state-owned space agency will manufacture the initial package of 21 satellites, while the private sector is being invited to build the remaining 31. The new sensors will incorporate artificial intelligence (AI), enabling them to interact with each other. India is also expected to launch quantum satellites in the next two to three years. Under the SBS-III package, India may collaborate with France to manufacture next-generation spy satellites. In addition to the space sensors, the requisite support infrastructure on the ground will also be expanded.
India’s Defense Space Agency (DSA) will be responsible for controlling the newly launched satellite package under the SBS-III. More importantly, as reported in the media, the DSA is also expected to work on establishing launch-on-demand capability. India’s Chief of Defense Staff General Anil Chauhan confirmed New Delhi’s ambition to acquire this capability. The new system, as per media reports, will enable the DSA to launch a 650 kg satellite to a height of approximately 750 km within 60 minutes from a mobile platform. The planned initiative will allow India to replace its satellites swiftly, in the event of their destruction either by a natural calamity or an attack.
The SBS-III will provide a substantial boost to India’s surveillance capability, especially with regard to real-time monitoring. The earlier set of satellites, such as CartoSat-2C, could only provide imagery of a target once in four days. Similarly, India had a limited number of dedicated communications satellites for secure correspondence with friendly forces. The SBS-III is expected to address this limitation by augmenting existing capabilities. Up-to-date battlefield intelligence and the ability to provide secure inter-service communication will enhance the freedom of operational commanders to execute their missions effectively.
The AI feature in the satellites under the SBS III project, by allowing them to interact with each other, will enable more effective geo-intelligence. This implies that a satellite positioned at a higher orbit, upon detecting an object of potential interest, could communicate with a satellite at a lower altitude to focus more closely at the given point and transfer information to the ground station.
The new spy satellites, equipped with AI, will enable India’s surveillance capabilities to collect round-the-clock intelligence on adversaries’ military installations and their force disposition. The SBS-III project will enable New Delhi to track and detect their moving assets including naval warships and mobile missile launchers. Therefore, the new satellite constellation will make it challenging to conceal military installations and assets from these new sensors.
With the Indian Ocean region emerging as an area of strategic contestation, New Delhi would want a capability to detect enemy surface and subsurface vessels in real time. While a few media reports point toward such potential with the new satellites under the SBS III, the fact is that the capability to detect a submarine in deep water through satellites does not exist, even with very advanced countries. Perhaps the biggest advantage of the indigenous SBS-III system, then, will be reduced dependence on foreign sources in getting time-sensitive information.
The SBS-III represents India’s move to equip its military for contemporary warfare. The initiative also asserts the notion that space is fast emerging as the next frontier battlefield. Keeping the SBS-III initiative in view, regional and global actors may increase their investment in their space capabilities to ward off India’s edge. In this regard, they will likely boost their kinetic and non-kinetic anti-satellite capabilities. Likewise, to keep parity vis-à-vis India, they may launch a similar package in space to enhance their real-time surveillance capabilities, to ensure the notion of deterrence by detection. Therefore, New Delhi’s new spy network will likely continue the new arms race in space, which will further proliferate the realm with more space-based sensors.
