As an effective tactic in diversionary strategy, the “Taiwan card” has been played by both Republicans and Democrats – a move to showcase stronger support for Taiwan than their political rivals, thereby scoring points in U.S. domestic politics. Traditionally, the Republican Party has been seen as more inclined to play the Taiwan card aggressively, using it to underscore its perceived superiority in handling foreign policy compared to Democrats.
However, when the White House decided to block Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te’s transit through New York, the vehement backlash from Democratic lawmakers stood in sharp contrast to the surprising silence from their Republican counterparts. This muted Republican response marks a notable shift in one of the party’s most prominent Asia-related policies: downplaying the Taiwan card.
The reason behind it is twofold: First, U.S. President Donald Trump, himself a Republican, is seeking to avoid provoking Beijing – not only to ease China-U.S. trade tensions, but also to keep the Russia-Ukraine war from escalating. Most Republicans are supporting Trump in this approach. Second, the rise of the New Right within the Republican Party has brought an increasing indifference toward Taiwan.
The turmoil Trump has caused in international trade through high tariffs has become a defining feature of the global economy since his return to the White House. Among the resulting trade tensions, the situation with China has been the most consequential, given the deep economic interdependence between the two nations. China is one of the largest export markets for U.S. goods and services (often second to Mexico and Canada), while the United States is China’s top export destination.
Despite its broad economic impact, the second round of the China-U.S. trade war has disproportionately harmed Republican-leaning regions. In 2018, during the first trade war, such regions – often reliant on agriculture (corn, soybeans) and both low-tech (plastics) and high-tech (aircraft, automotive) manufacturing – were hit hardest. A recent projection suggests that China’s retaliatory tariffs would again disproportionately hurt Trump-voting districts. This is not mere prediction: Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, a deeply Republican state, admitted that its GDP dropped 6 percent last year, saying, “It’s all about trade. It’s all about getting corn and soybeans out the door.”
Consequently, fear of worsening economic damage in their own states has led Republicans to show restraint in playing the Taiwan card. Even prominent pro-Taiwan Republicans like Representative John Moolenaar, chairman of the House Select Committee on China, stayed silent on the Lai transit issue – despite having recently protested the easing of restrictions on the sale of Nvidia H20 GPUs to China. But given that Michigan, the state he represents, is a major soybean exporter to China, his silence would be politically understandable.
In a broader sense, Republicans have developed a general opposition to escalating trade tensions with China, fearing economic repercussions in their districts – especially with next year’s midterm elections looming. As a result, the ongoing China-U.S. trade negotiations are critical to the GOP’s political fortunes. Against this backdrop, avoiding Taiwan-related provocations is a calculated move to protect their electoral prospects.
This pattern was also seen back in June. When Democratic Representative Ami Bera led a so-called bipartisan U.S. delegation to Taiwan amid the China-U.S. trade talks in London, no Republican members joined.
Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war has become a major political pet peeve for Trump. After vowing to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, he and many Republicans have grown frustrated with stalled negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv as well as the inconsistent Republican positions on Ukraine aid. Considering his failed attempt to persuade India to reduce oil purchases from Russia, the importance of China – the other major buyer of Russian oil – has only grown in any peace efforts he seeks in Ukraine.
Just hours before Trump announced a summit with Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with Putin, expressing that Beijing welcomes improved Russia-U.S. relations and a political resolution to the Ukraine crisis. Trump understands that China’s neutrality, if not quiet assistance, could be pivotal to any breakthrough with Moscow. Another flare-up in the Taiwan Strait would undermine these diplomatic calculations, making it the last thing the White House wants to see.
The second reason the Republican Party is downplaying the Taiwan card is the rise of the New Right in the United States. Taiwan – or more precisely, Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – has long taken Republican support for granted while maintaining close ties with Democrats during the Obama and Biden administrations. As a result, the DPP struggles to understand and relate to the New Right and its “America First” creed. This disconnect has reinforced the New Right’s emerging cross-strait policy: avoiding a direct confrontation with China, especially over Taiwan.
The muted Republican response to the cancellation of Lai’s transit through the United States may reflect the growing influence of the New Right within the GOP. For Republicans in this camp, the DPP is not a natural political ally – and Lai’s approach rattles Beijing in ways that conflict with core U.S. national interests.
The rise of the New Right and their indifference to Taiwan is leading the GOP to downplay the Taiwan card. To them, deep involvement in the Taiwan Strait not only contradicts their non-interventionist philosophy, but also offers almost no political payoff. If intermittent, performative tough-on-China rhetoric is already enough to satisfy the small slice of voters who actually care about Asia, then why go any farther to fully embrace Taiwan?
Republicans might still dust off the Taiwan card when election season heats up, especially if Democrats turn up the volume. But as long as Trump is chasing trade deals with China and peace breakthroughs in Ukraine, the GOP will not risk Beijing’s wrath over Taiwan. And if this cautious approach pays off, the New Right’s non-interventionist stance in Asia could be further cemented throughout the remainder of the Trump administration and extend into any Republican successor’s tenure.
