Magazine
“The Trump administration can have a tough-on-China policy, or it can have a tough-on-allies policy, but it probably cannot have both.”
The previous issue of The Diplomat Magazine highlighted some of the ways U.S. policy impacts countries in the Asia-Pacific, from security to economics, even domestic politics. Countries in the region were thus watching closely as the results from the U.S. presidential election rolled in last month.
In this interview, Kelly A. Grieco, a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Security Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C., explains the reactions in the Asia-Pacific to Donald Trump’s reelection, after a hiatus of four years.
While the jury is still out on which policy directions the incoming administration will ultimately pursue, Trump himself is now “a known entity – both his policies and personality traits,” Grieco tells The Diplomat. “There is no sense of shock or crisis this time around. U.S. allies are resigned to a second Trump presidency.”
How has Donald Trump’s reelection been received in Asia by U.S. allies versus rivals like China?
After Donald Trump won eight years ago, the world reacted with a mixture of shock, dismay, and anxiety. U.S. allies scrambled, holding emergency meetings to prepare for Trump’s “America First” approach to foreign policy and trade. Japan and South Korea were rattled by his claims on the campaign trail that the two allies were free riding on U.S. security guarantees and should pay more for the U.S. forces they host. There was a large measure of uncertainty as to what the future would hold.
There is no sense of shock or crisis this time around. U.S. allies are resigned to a second Trump presidency. Australian, Japanese, and South Korean policymakers, determined not to be caught unprepared for Trump 2.0, hedged their bets over the last year by working to arrange meetings with Trump’s inner circle. In April, Japanese former Prime Minister Taro Aso [at the time, the vice president of the ruling LDP] met with the then-Republican nominee and former president at Trump Tower in New York City. Australia sent its ambassador to mingle with Trump advisers in Milwaukee during the Republican convention in July.
Trump is also a known entity – both his policies and personality traits. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is practicing his golf swing again, in preparation for the return of “golf diplomacy” under President-elect Trump. The prospect of increased pressure from the Trump White House on trade, as well as a return of his erratic dealings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, increases concerns in allied capitals. Yet there is no sense of panic.
The view from Manila is a bit more complicated. Philippine officials have expressed confidence that the alliance with the United States will remain “unshakeable” under the incoming administration. But Trump’s election has almost certainly created some anxiety about the future of relations. After years of strained relations under his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. sought closer defense ties with the Biden White House, as a bulwark against China’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.
Over the last two years, Manila has waged a very public campaign of “naming and shaming” China’s harassment of its coastguard and naval vessels. The Marcos administration pursued this “transparency initiative” with reassurance from President Biden, in writing, that American security guarantees extend to the South China Sea. The incoming administration might revisit this commitment, asking what the United States stands to gain from risking war with China over uninhabited reefs and rocks in the South China Sea. Of course, with several China hawks nominated for top positions in his administration, Trump could also double down on these alliance commitments.
China is taking mostly a “wait and see approach.” President Xi Jinping, while in Peru to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, offered an olive branch to the incoming Trump administration. “China is ready to work with the new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences,” Xi said, advising the way forward was to “keep exploring the right way for two major countries to get along well with each other.”
Xi also issued a warning on Beijing’s red lines – the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and the country’s right to development. “They must not be challenged,” Xi warned, adding, “These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-U.S. relations.” Beijing is signaling that it is ready to confront whatever the Trump White House has in store.
