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Governor’s Cup preview: Kentucky at Louisville
The University of Kentucky football team concludes its 2021 regular season Saturday against archrival Louisville in the annual Governor’s Cup game at Cardinal Stadium. Click below to view all the stories previewing the game that have been published on Kentucky.com.
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It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass, just not in Lexington. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of Kentucky’s football game at Louisville this Saturday.
Containing Cunningham
The Malik Cunningham against whom Kentucky will battle is a much tougher cover than the player it saw in two previous showdowns. The Kentucky defense he’ll see also hasn’t proven to be as intimidating as those that took the field in its last two wins over the Cardinals. Expecting him to finish with sub-100 yard passing and rushing totals again is a good way to set yourself up for a disappointing Saturday.
Unless UK has been holding something back to this point, just assume that Cunningham is going to have, at minimum, a solid day against a unit that afforded season-best numbers to three of the best quarterbacks it saw in Southeastern Conference play (Missouri’s Connor Bazelak, Mississippi State’s Will Rogers and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker). Cunningham is probably the best of that lot. UK defensive coordinator Brad White called him “arguably the most talented offensive weapon we’ve seen all season.”
He’s certainly the most dynamic. After not reaching triple-digit rushing through six games, he’s topped 100 yards in three of the last five games while passing for 200-plus in three of those opportunities. He’s thrown for as many touchdowns as he’s rushed for — 18 — though nine of the ones through the air were accumulated in the last two weeks against Syracuse (four) and Duke (five). His most impressive scoring toss of the season might have come in the Cards’ 28-13 loss at North Carolina State; down 7-0 with time expiring at the end of the first quarter and his pocket collapsing on him, Cunningham rocketed the ball about 50 yards downfield to Jordan Watkins, who ran about 35 more yards for a game-tying touchdown. He’s made throws like that all season, so if you’re relying on pressure, you’d better bring him down before the ball’s out of his hand.
“He’s really dangerous,” White said. “Everything about just him and his legs, and he’s smooth there, but what he’s done in the pocket this year? He’s got 18 touchdown passes and 18 rushing. Thirty-six total touchdowns is pretty remarkable. To say it’s a huge challenge is a little bit of an understatement.”
Keeping Cunningham and Louisville one dimensional isn’t easy — the Cardinals’ yearlong averages for passing (241.7 yards per game) and rushing (217.9) are about equal — but making things frustrating for their run game could turn the tide in Kentucky’s favor. The Cardinals rank second in the ACC in rushing, and were able to put 200-plus yards on both Clemson and N.C. State, who rank right ahead of Kentucky, which is 18th in rushing defense this season. U of L lost both of those games, though, despite big days on the ground from Cunningham. If the Cats are able to stifle other runners, it might not matter how many times Cunningham carries the ball. Forcing him to make tough throws, as opposed to scrambling, would be more ideal, though.
Let’s get physical
Kentucky’s ability to dominate in the trenches against Louisville has been a decisive factor the last two times they’ve played. The Wildcats’ offensive line, at least, should have an advantage up front once more.
That unit this week was recognized as a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award, a distinction it’s received now four times in the last six seasons. If Kentucky is able to put together another banner day against the Cardinals, it’s going to be because its biggest guys make their presence felt early and often.
“This will be a huge week for us to try and assert some physicality and be the SEC football team that we’re supposed to be,” offensive coordinator Liam Coen said. “ … The biggest point of emphasis for us will be finishing and sustaining blocks, specifically with the amount of movement that they create up front. It’s not gonna be so much identifying as it will being able to work through some of that movement that they do and shutting it down to create some more space inside for the running backs.”
Louisville’s defense lost one of its starters this month in cornerback Kei’Trel Clark, who Coen said would have been one of the best defensive backs against whom UK would have played. A 5-foot-10, 155-pound freshman, Greedy Vance, has taken on a greater role for the Cards, as has walk-on linebacker Jack Fagot, who starred for Lexington Catholic High School. They’re representative of the Cards’ defense as a whole — not overly intimidating, physically, but scrappy and sharp enough to compete on every down.
Louisville impact
Former Louisville high school stars could play a big role on each side of the ball for Kentucky.
A lot will be asked of outside linebacker J.J. Weaver, especially if senior Jordan Wright remains sidelined with an ankle injury. He leads the Wildcats with six sacks and is second on the team with 10 tackles for loss. He’s also not completely new to the rivalry; he recorded five tackles and a pass breakup as a true freshman in the 2019 victory.
White has observed noticeable growth this season when it comes to the practice habits of Weaver, who’s played the entire season after undergoing an ACL surgery late last year.
“He’s aware, he’s trying and he’s working,” White said. “I’ve been proud of his toughness. … He’s done a good job of pushing through some soreness and it’s really been all about the team for him. He knows that we need him, especially with some of our depth issues. He’s never balked once.”
Ex-Male High School standout Izayah Cummings could be a difference-maker on offense; he certainly jumps out as a guy who might have the kind of breakout performance that sometimes defines a rivalry game. The wide receiver-turned-tight-end has 13 catches for 182 yards and three touchdowns on the year.
Final predictions
Kentucky 35, Louisville 31: Flip the score the other way and it wouldn’t surprise me a lot. Nor would I be taken aback if UK were to, for the third meeting a row, overwhelm the Cardinals up front and turn this one into a rout. The only outcome that would surprise me would be a runaway victory for the home team, which is coming off two straight of that sort after seven straight weeks of narrowly contested bouts — four of them losses. At the end of the day, there’s enough offensive play-making ability and defensive question marks on each side to encourage fireworks on Saturday. Think of it as Thunder Over Louisville, the fall edition.
MVP: Wan’Dale Robinson. He breaks James Whalen’s record for receptions in a season and pulls closer to Craig Yeast’s single-season receiving mark after finishing with, or around, 200 yards.
Good gamble: Thinking this one plays out similarly to the Tennessee game. At a plus-205 return you can bet that neither team scores three unanswered times. You’d have won betting that when UK hosted the Volunteers, so let’s roll with it again.
The last word
Head coach Mark Stoops, when asked a question about what the atmosphere will be like for a UK-U of L prime-time kickoff.
“It’s my understanding they serve alcohol in that stadium.”
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