A preliminary readout of the Trump-Putin telephone call says that the two leaders agreed on a limited ceasefire arrangement covering energy facilities in Ukraine and Russia. It is questionable if Ukraine will accept the deal.
“The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.”
The Kremlin said: “It was emphasized” – presumably by President Putin – “that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working toward its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.”
The negotiations will take place in “a bilateral mode,” meaning no Ukrainians and no Europeans. The sides agreed on “experts groups” to work out the terms of a possible agreement to settle the Ukraine conflict.
The “bilateral mode” separates the US and Russia from immediately having to deal with Ukraine. The deal between Putin and Trump also clearly displaces the Europeans, particularly the EU and NATO. Washington no longer finds either the EU or NATO helpful or constructive.
It appears this means Russia will stop its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and Ukraine will stop long-range attacks targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure. In Ukraine’s case this would mean Ukraine won’t attack refineries, oil and gas transit hubs, pipelines and fuel storage sites. Russia will stop attacking power plants, electricity distribution systems, and other parts of Ukraine’s energy distribution system.
There is a good chance Ukraine will not honor the Trump-Putin agreement.
The limited ceasefire is likely to be set for 30 days, but probably could be extended if the parties agree.
The talks covered other bilateral issues beyond Ukraine.
The US Embassy in Moscow also reported: “The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application. The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.”
The US Moscow embassy also noted “The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.”
There are many questions going forward including Ukrainian resistance to the limited ceasefire and the upcoming talks “in the Middle East.” However, Ukraine does not have much room for maneuver, since the US has now discounted Europe’s involvement, taking away the political support Ukraine is trying to leverage.
Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.
