Rishi Sunak is braced for heavy losses in the local elections as rebel Tories plot to oust him if key mayoral contests are lost in what they described as a potential “armageddon” weekend for the prime minister.
As voting finished on Thursday night, a bombshell new poll found the Tories are now even less popular under Mr Sunak than during the calamitous premiership of Liz Truss.
According to the survey, taken on 30 April and 1 May, the Conservatives are down to just 18 per cent – 26 points behind Labour on 44 per cent and a mere three points ahead of Reform UK on 15 per cent.
The results heightened the nerves of Conservative MPs as two days of counting began.
One Tory MP told The Independent that a move against Mr Sunak is “likely” if either West Midlands mayor Andy Street or Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen lose their jobs.
There was also a by-election taking place in Blackpool South. Labour was expected to win the Lancashire seat, with Reform UK expected to make gains and potentially finish above the Tories in second place.
Labour: Blackpool South by-election ‘most important contest of the night’
Labour has declared Blackpool South the “most important election” of the night as polls closed in local contests around the country, Archie Mitchell reports.
The vote, to replace scandal-hit Tory MP Scott Benton, is expected to see the seat returned to Labour.
National campaign coordinator Pat McFadden said: “We are proud of the positive campaign we have run, focused on turning the page after fourteen years of decline under the Conservative Party.
“These elections have been about offering change. We have set out our plan to get Britain building again, take back our streets, and bring opportunity to every corner of the country, while the Conservatives have once again stayed silent on the issues that matter.
“The most important election of the night is the historic by-election in Blackpool, caused by yet more Tory chaos and scandal. It’s the only election today where voters have had the opportunity to directly reject Rishi Sunak’s party in Westminster.
“It’s going to be a long night and the full picture of results from local elections may not be clear until over the weekend, but we expect to see Labour gains that show we’re making progress in the places we need to win the next general election.”
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 22:04
In full: Sunak faces make-or-break over local elections as ‘armageddon’ looms with new poll low
Rishi Sunak is facing a make-or-break 48 hours as some Tory MPs plot to engineer his downfall even as the local election results in England are still being counted.
The chances of the prime minister facing a vote of no confidence from his MPs were heightened on Thursday when the latest YouGov poll revealed the party is even less popular under his leadership than during the calamitous premiership of Liz Truss.
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 22:02
Polling expert Lord Hayward: Labour to win Blackpool… Sadiq Khan to win by less than expected
Polling expert Lord Hayward has shared a series of predictions for tonight’s elections as polls close, Archie Mitchell reports.
The Conservative peer has called the Blackpool South and London mayoral contests for Labour, but said Sadiq Khan will only win by around 10 per cent.
And in Blackpool, Lord Hayward said the town’s social deprivation means it will be one of the “few results” to demonstrate strong support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
He said Labour will win 40 per cent of the vote nationally, with the Conservatives 14 points behind on 26, the Lib Dems on 13 per cent and Reform on 11.
Crucially, that would not put Sir Keir Starmer in “Blairite” territory of 1995 and ‘96 when the Labour Party was on 47 per cent and 43 per cent respectively.
Lord Hayward also said the Conservatives will lose the key West Midlands mayoral contest, while the Tory Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen will hold on.
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 22:01
Voting finishes in 2024 local elections
Voting has now finished in the local elections.
The first results are expected to trickle in overnight, with the rest following throughout Friday and over the weekend.
Stay tuned for all the latest updates.
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 22:00
Is there an exit poll for the 2024 local and mayoral elections?
An exit poll is a survey of voters that asks them what party or politician they voted for in an election.
The surveys are carried out by data companies and usually commissioned by media organisations.
At UK general elections, exit polls are used to predict how many seats each party has won and the percentage of votes they have secured.
Will there be an exit poll for the local elections? Read more below:
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 21:20
Boris Johnson turned away from polling station after forgetting photo ID
Boris Johnson fell foul of legislation he introduced himself as prime minister – when he was reportedly turned away from a polling station after failing to take photographic identification.
Mr Johnson, who quit as PM after three years in 2022, had been trying to cast his vote in the local elections in South Oxfordshire, according to Sky News.
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 20:12
Tory MP pleads for help ahead of local elections after realising he has no valid form of Voter ID
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 20:00
Veteran cards will be added to list of approved voting ID – No 10
The government says it intends to add the new Veteran Cards to a list of approved identification for voting.
A government spokesperson said: “Our intention is for the new Veteran Card, which was rolled out in January 2024, to be added to the official list of recognised identification – and we are already consulting on this. Defence Identity cards for serving Armed Forces members are already accepted.
“The introduction of the requirement to show photographic identification for voting in person across Great Britain is in line with longstanding arrangements in Northern Ireland and elsewhere, and has been recommended by international election watchdogs, including the Electoral Commission.
“The vast majority of voters in the polling station – 99.75 per cent – cast their vote successfully at the local elections in England in May 2023, and we are confident that they will be able to do so at these polls.”
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 19:40
ICYMI: Minister apologies for veteran cards not being approved form of ID to vote
Johnny Mercer has apologised for veteran ID cards not being accepted as valid ID at polling stations in the local elections.
Former soldier Adam Diver was turned away from a polling station after showing up to vote with his veterans card.
“I am sorry about this,” Mr Mercer wrote on X.
“The legislation on acceptable forms of ID came out before the veterans ID cards started coming out in January this year.
“I will do all I can to change it before the next one.”
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 19:15
ICYMI |Local election results: Ask John Rentoul anything as public opinion is tested ahead of general election
The Independent’s chief political commentator John Rentoul is on hand to answer all your questions about the local elections.
Follow the link below for more details on how to get involved in the conversation:
Matt Mathers2 May 2024 18:44
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