The Sweet 16 is set in the men’s NCAA tournament and while there are no true Cinderellas left, there are plenty of compelling matchups.
So which games stand out and offer the best values to bet? Joe Fortenbaugh, Tyler Fulghum, Mackenzie Kraemer and Greg Peterson take a look at the early odds and highlight the bets that stand out before the lines move later in the week.
Odds are accurate as of publication time. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Houston Cougars (-7.5) vs Purdue Boilermakers
While Houston has the best defense in the country, their offense is what should make the difference against Purdue. The Boilermakers have ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency since the start of February, but neither High Point nor McNeese could take advantage. Houston’s offense should be able to score at will after averaging 1.25 points per possession against Gonzaga. On the other side, Purdue had 19 turnovers against McNeese. Houston should cause similar issues with their ball pressure. — Kraemer
Houston/Purdue first half under 62.5
This matchup features two offenses that operate at a glacial pace, with Purdue ranking 299th in the country in adjusted tempo and Houston ranking 359th. Needless to say, neither team will be in a rush to push the ball up the court which, in turn, will limit both possessions and scoring opportunities. Factor in Houston’s top-ranked defense, as well as the Cougars’ efficiency struggles from 2-point range (272nd in NCAA) and you have a 20-minute grind-fest likely to stay under 62.5 total points. — Fortenbaugh
Maryland Terrapins (+6.5) vs. Florida Gators
Perhaps there is some bias here since, candidly, I picked the Terps to win this game in my bracket. That being said, Florida is the only team remaining that is 0-2 ATS in the tournament. That doesn’t mean the Gators are bad but it might mean that they are getting overvalued in the market, which makes sense considering how well they were playing entering the tournament. I want to get as many points as possible here and if this line moves at all I think it’s moving in Maryland’s direction. — Fulghum
Michigan State Spartans (-2.5) vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Michigan State has the clear edge on the glass, owning the second-best rebound percentage in the country, while Ole Miss has only one player on the roster averaging at least five rebounds per game. Ole Miss does have the top scorer in this game with Sean Pedulla averaging 15 points per game, but this guard-heavy Rebels team has to face a Michigan State defense that leads the country in limiting opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 27.8%. With Michigan State’s defense covering both the glass and the 3-point arc, they will cover the spread as well. — Peterson
