The first session of the 45th Parliament gets underway today with the Liberal Party back in power with a surprising fourth minority government in a row.
It wasn’t many months ago where all the polls had the Conservatives slated to win the next election, and quite possibly with a majority government. Then along came the election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States, talk of Canada as the 51st State, the push that forced the resignation of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister, the election of Mark Carney as the Liberal Party leader, and here we are today with King Charles about to deliver the throne speech. Wow.
One mandate letter
Unlike the previous Liberal government, Prime Minister Carney has provided members of his Cabinet one mandate letter.
The tone is serious, the urgency is immediate, with Canada facing a “A Generational Challenge.” The Prime Minister is reassuring Canadians that this government will be action oriented and deliver results.
The letter states “Canada must build an enormous amount of new infrastructure at speeds not seen in generations. This includes the infrastructure to diversify our trading relationships; to become an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energies; to restore affordability to housing; and to secure our borders and our communities.”
It goes on to say, “The combination of the scale of this infrastructure build and the transformative nature of artificial intelligence (AI) will create opportunities for millions of Canadians to find new rewarding careers – provided they have timely access to the education and training they need to develop the necessary skills.”
AI is clearly important portfolio. with for the first time, a new Cabinet position dedicated to this file. The new minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation is former journalist Evan Solomon. He also takes on the role of Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario. I’ll note that this file is important to the space community and as such I’m sure they’ll be engaging with the Minister as soon as possible.
The Prime Minister outlined seven priorities in the mandate letter:
- Establishing a new economic and security relationship with the United States and strengthening our collaboration with reliable trading partners and allies around the world.
- Building one Canadian economy by removing barriers to interprovincial trade and identifying and expediting nation-building projects that will connect and transform our country.
- Bringing down costs for Canadians and helping them to get ahead.
- Making housing more affordable by unleashing the power of public-private cooperation, catalysing a modern housing industry, and creating new careers in the skilled trades.
- Protecting Canadian sovereignty and keeping Canadians safe by strengthening the Canadian Armed Forces, securing our borders, and reinforcing law enforcement.
- Attracting the best talent in the world to help build our economy, while returning our overall immigration rates to sustainable levels.
- Spending less on government operations so that Canadians can invest more in the people and businesses that will build the strongest economy in the G7.
Budget delayed
The government has decided it won’t deliver a budget until the fall of this year. While extremely unusual, it is not unprecedented. CTV news reports that in 2020 due to COVID the budget was not tabled in the spring and the 2001-02 budget was not tabled until December 2001 due to the election and then delayed again due to the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attack in the US.
So what does this mean for government departments as the fiscal year began April 1, 2025.
We reached out to the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) who pointed us to the Government Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates (Parts I and II) for 2024-25. Until a new budget is tabled, departments are using the 2024-25 Main Estimates as their guide for now.
So any new planned spending or changes are on hold. The CSA planned spending for 2024-25 was set at $413M. We do know that the CSA had forecasted a planned spending of $319M for fiscal year 2025/26. But the budget now needs to be reevaluated.
Space file: Tariffs, new directions, and a new CSA president?
The government is dealing with President Trump’s ever changing tariffs including on items from the space file. While there’s been no wide spread reports of issues on the space file as yet, we do know that Galaxia, a startup set to launch its first satellite, was dinged with a 25% tariff to have its satellite launched on the upcoming SpaceX Transporter-14 rideshare mission.
SpaceQ estimates there are 76 Canadian satellites tentatively scheduled to launch between now through 2026. This includes 31 satellites for Telesat’s Lighspeed constellation. The majority of these satellites will launch with SpaceX. Will they be subject to tariffs? That’s still unclear.
One thing is for sure, it’s time the government stepped in and help bring Spaceport Nova Scotia operational. Even if a Canadian developed orbital launcher vehicle capable of launching Telesat satellites is still several years away, there are European and US launch vehicles that want to launch from Spaceport Nova Scotia. If the government is action oriented, this really is an easy lift. Much of the groundwork, including regulatory reform has been done.
Another issue is the Artemis program and the Lunar Gateway. The Trump government in its initial skinny budget for NASA wants to do away with the Gateway. Canada and other international partners have spent a lot of time and money preparing for the Gateway.
This is an ongoing fight with the US Congress starting to weigh in. Until the final budget and Congress has it’s say, the Gateway is still alive. Will it survive in its current form or modified? We don’t know.
The biggest contract around the Gateway program for Canada is Canadarm3. The good news there is that MDA Space is the unquestioned leader in space robotics globally. It’s not just the technology, it’s the decades of data from running Canada’s robotic contributions to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station. So while the Gateway may be in jeopardy, MDA will continue to develop and refine this technology which will be needed on the Moon and more importantly in the near term, in low Earth orbit.
In a recent investor earnings call where he spoke on this topic, Mike Greenley, CEO of MDA Space said ““There has been no change to any MDA space contract as a result of these U.S budget recommendations. We’re in discussion with the CSA and the Government of Canada officials with respect to government-to-government dialogue on this matter.”
With so many items on the government’s agenda, and with the running of the country not likely to change much, you do have to wonder what’s in store for all departments including on the space file. Will things really change? And if they change, how fast?
One last item we need to cover. The five year term of CSA President Lisa Campbell expires this September. We asked the CSA if Campbell was going to serve a second term. Their response was to pint out this item text the Canadian Space Agency Act: “The President is appointed by the Governor in Council (GIC) and may be reappointed to a further term.” I’ll note, and as you can see in the chart below, only one previous President served a second term, though, not a full second term. If history is a guide, Campbell’s time as President will come to an end this year.
