Nvidia (NVDA) is set to recoup billions of dollars in revenue if the tech giant resumes sales of its AI chips to China as expected after a surprise export ban in April.
Wall Street analysts at Stifel, Bernstein, and William Blair said Nvidia could make up as much as $15 billion in revenue from China in the second half of the year to hit around $20 billion from the region for its 2026 fiscal year, which ends next January. That would be an uptick from its roughly $17 billion in sales from China in 2025.
Nvidia said Tuesday that it had received assurances from the Trump administration that it would be granted licenses to resume sales of its H20 chips to Chinese customers, sending the stock to a new record high.
Stifel analyst Ruben Roy raised his price target on Nvidia to $202 from $180 following the news, writing in a note to clients Tuesday that, given pent-up demand, there will “likely be an accelerated cadence of H20 ingestion from China customers” in the second half of the year.
Roy sees Nvidia’s China revenue hitting $19.5 billion in 2026, including its H20 sales in the first quarter. However, he told Yahoo Finance in an email that the company’s ability to hit that target depends on manufacturing capacity at its contract manufacturer TSMC, which he said is “tight.”
“[I]t is unclear if they can actually get all the way there,” he wrote.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon sees Nvidia raking in anywhere between $10 billion and $15 billion in revenue from China in the second half of the year — implying that the company would hit anywhere from $15.5 billion to $20.5 billion in revenue for the full year — writing, “they still have to actually get licenses granted … then secure purchase orders, then have parts built and shipped.”
Nvidia was effectively banned from selling its H20 chips to China in April in an unexpected move from the Trump administration that sent shares tumbling. China is one of Nvidia’s most important markets, behind only the US, Singapore, and Taiwan. The country accounted for 13% of the AI chipmaker’s revenue in its 2025 fiscal year — but DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria estimates that Chinese companies actually represent between 25% and 40% of Nvidia’s end customers due to chip smuggling.
Nvidia has repeatedly created new, lower-power chips to sell to China in the face of tightening US export controls, as the US government has cited national security concerns over China’s development of AI. The company began sales of its H20 chips — graphics processing units based on its prior-generation Hopper architecture — in 2024. Due to the latest ban under Trump in April, Nvidia said it lost $2.5 billion in sales in China in the first quarter, in addition to getting hit with a $4.5 billion write-down in inventory. The company projected it would see $8 billion in lost sales in the country in the second quarter.
