India’s military is reacting furiously to the terrorist attack at an idyllic, high-altitude meadow in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on April 22, in which heavily armed terrorists gunned down at least 26 unarmed tourists and honeymooners.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed retribution and promised that India will pursue the Kashmir attackers to “the ends of the earth.”
Believing an Indian attack imminent, Pakistan is readying its military. So far, India has apparently mobilized only its conventional (non-nuclear) weaponry. However, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khwaja Muhammad Asif has invoked its weapons of last resort, issuing a thinly-veiled reminder of its nuclear deterrent.
Referring, as Pakistan usually does, to its nuclear arsenal as “strategic,” Defense Minister Asif told Reuters in Islamabad: “In the current situation, some strategic decisions have to be taken. So those decisions have been taken.”
Asked about the prospect of Indian armed retaliation, Asif said: “It is something, which is imminent now.” He further declared that “Pakistani forces have been reinforced.”
Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine calls for the early use of, or the threat of the use of, nuclear weapons in a confrontation or crisis with India. Pakistan’s military anticipates limited success in warding off a full-scale Indian military attack, after which it would have to take recourse to its arsenal of nuclear weapons.
Asif said Pakistan was on high alert, and that it would only use its arsenal of nuclear weapons if “there is a direct threat to our existence.”
Several global think tanks and arms control bodies, such as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, assess that Pakistan has an arsenal of roughly 165 nuclear warheads of mixed types and ranges. These weapons can be delivered by the Shaheen III missile, with its reported range of 2,750 kilometers, to targets anywhere in India, including the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
India is believed to possess about the same number of warheads of mixed types. Its delivery to targets in Pakistan is built around the Agni-P – a new-generation, nuclear-capable, medium-range ballistic missile developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation in India. It is a two-stage, solid-propellant missile with a range of 1,000-2,000 kilometers. The missile is launched from a canister, which allows for extended storage and mobility.
Given the international demand for greater clarity on nuclear arsenals, Pakistan has loosely defined the circumstances under which decision-makers in Islamabad would deem the use of nuclear weapons acceptable. Pakistan’s five nuclear “red lines” stipulate five thresholds: loss of significant territory, destruction of a large portion of the military, economic strangulation, political destabilization, and internal subversion.
Pakistan’s Five Nuclear “Red Lines”
Islamabad will consider the “spatial threshold” to have been crossed if a large portion (not specified) of Pakistan’s territory is captured by a foreign power. Many analysts consider the Indus River valley, the breadbasket of Pakistan, to be a “red line” that could trigger a nuclear response.
Another nuclear “red line” would be crossed by the destruction of a substantial part of Pakistan’s military, particularly the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). Pakistan’s military, especially the PAF, is seen as crucial for maintaining the country’s stability. A “red line” would most likely be crossed by its destruction.
Another “red line” would be linked to an “economic threshold.” Commercial activities that threaten to cripple Pakistan’s economy, such as economic sanctions, are likely to be seen as crossing a “red line”. So too would any naval action or blockade of Pakistani ports or shipping.
A fourth “red line” is likely to be linked with a “political threshold” within that country. Any political destabilization or large-scale political subversion within Pakistan could be regarded as an attack on Pakistan’s internal political coherence and, therefore, an attack on Pakistan.
A fifth and final “red line” that could evoke a nuclear response from the Pakistani state might be linked with “internal subversion”. This could take the form of large-scale terrorist attacks on public or government targets.
The ongoing confrontation between India and Pakistan has already led to the violation of one “red line” in Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine – by the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, which has threatened to disrupt water flows in rivers that flow from Jammu and Kashmir into Pakistan.
Asif said it was an “act of war” to deprive vulnerable areas of water, and that the treaty, which has weathered past conflicts, was backed by international guarantors.
As part of the Indus Waters Treaty, India was given the rights to the waters of the three “eastern rivers”: the Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas. Meanwhile, Pakistan received the rights to the waters of the three “western rivers” – the Jhelum, Chenab and Indus – which remained within Pakistan in exchange for some monetary compensation.
Pakistan’s military is required to ensure seamless integration between its conventional and nuclear strategies. It attempts to achieve this through “Full Spectrum Deterrence,” which includes tactical, operational and strategic deterrence on land, sea and air.
Asif said it was an “act of war” to deprive vulnerable areas of water, and that the treaty, which has weathered past conflicts, was backed by international guarantors.
Action Ahead
Given the volatility of the situation in Kashmir, conditions are not conducive to de-escalation. Modi’s hardline policies and the imposition of central rule in Kashmir have fueled deep alienation in the region. His hardline rhetoric leaves little room for compromise.
Pakistan’s military leadership is under pressure to respond forcefully to any Indian strike, and China’s growing involvement in events in Kashmir bears the risk of triggering rapid escalation. As was evident in the aftermath of the Balakot air strikes in 2019, the Pakistani doctrine of “quid pro quo plus” retaliation means that any Indian strike, no matter how limited, will be met with a response designed to inflict equal or greater pain.
