Pollsters discover “Trump bump” for almost all of Canada’s premiers

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Premiers across Canada are seeing what pollster Angus Reid is calling a “Trump bump,” as the latest quarterly data shows all but two of the country’s provincial leaders have seen their popularity numbers rise in March compared to three months ago.

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Leading the pack are Andrew Furey of Newfoundland and Labrador and Doug Ford of Ontario, who saw their approval numbers rise by 22 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively.

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This makes Furey the most popular premier in Canada, with an approval rate of 68 per cent — a bittersweet number, since he also announced last month that he plans to step down as soon as the Atlantic province’s Liberal party can elect a successor.

Ford, meanwhile, has seen his numbers climb to 48 per cent, after spending more than two years in the low thirties. Now in his third term as premier of Ontario, Ford’s popularity topped out at 69 per cent during the early days of the pandemic, but has not been this high since March of 2021.

“A lot of it has to do with the ‘Captain Canada’ initiative,” Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid, told the National Post, referring to Ford’s perceived leadership on the national stage against Donald Trump’s tariffs. “And it worked.”

She added: “Ford was an early and often critic of Trump in a way that captured the mood not just of Ontarians but of Canadians across the country.”

Looking at earlier numbers for the Ontario premier, however, she cautioned: “As we know with Doug Ford, and if you look at his trend line, what goes up definitely comes down.”

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Other premiers seeing a rise in their approval ratings include Susan Holt of New Brunswick (up 2 per cent to 60), Nova Scotia’s Tim Houston (up 4 per cent to 59) and David Eby of British Columbia (up 7 per cent to 53).

The Prairie provinces did not do as well. Danielle Smith of Alberta saw a bump of just 1 per cent, bringing her to a 46 per cent approval rating. Meanwhile, Wab Kinew of Manitoba and Scott Moe of Saskatchewan both saw small drops in popularity, of 2 and 3 per cent, respectively. This still leaves Kinew with an impressive popularity rating of 65 per cent, while Moe now stands at 49 per cent.

Lowest on the chart is François Legault of Quebec, with an approval rating of just 38 per cent, though even that climbed by a modest 2 per cent since the last survey.

Kurl pointed to a clear parallel between the existential threat of a trade war and that of COVID-19.

“We saw the same type of surge during the first months of the pandemic,” she said of the across-the-political-spectrum lift. “Moments of crisis can have the potential to bring out the best in politicians. Communication is simplified, the messaging is simplified, and if they hit a popular note …” She let that trail off before adding: “We saw the same thing.”

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While the survey did not focus on the numbers for federal politicians, Angus Reid has been tracking those as well, and last week added to a growing chorus of voices that see the Liberals back in the lead after trailing the Conservatives in the polls for many months.

“The contrast that I would draw is the difference between Conservative Doug Ford’s reaction to Trump and the tariff rhetoric and the annexation rhetoric … relative to Pierre Poilievre’s much more muted reaction in the first weeks of those events,” Kurl said. “The more muted response from Poilievre has damaged him in this federal campaign.”

“Poilievre was so successful in reminding Canadian voters why they were so ticked off with the Trudeau government,” she said. “He has not been able to capitalize on that because people are focused on what’s in front of them right now, which is Trump.”

This effectively reframed the issues on which people will be voting in the April 28 federal election. “If there’s a path back for Poilievre … he’s got to be able to re-re-frame the ballot question to issues where he is perceived to be stronger.”

The Angus Reid Institute conducted its survey from March 13-16 among a representative randomized sample of 4,009 Canadian adults. Because its small population, data on Prince Edward Island was not  released.

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