Since the military returned to power in Myanmar in 2021, attacks have increased in northern Shan, Mandalay, and Rakhine State. The conflict has intensified, causing casualties, refugees in Maungdaw Township, and a large wave of refugees to Bangladesh after the military junta’s attacks, especially in Rakhine State.
The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) says that 3.1 million people have been displaced by the conflict between the Tatmadaw and ethnic armed organizations and People’s Defense Forces (PDF), the armed wings of the National Unity Government in Myanmar. The conflict between the military junta and opposition groups continues. Meanwhile, the military junta’s influence in many areas is diminishing.
One report found the junta controls less than half of Myanmar’s territory, and this has led to more attacks. From January to April 2024, there were 816 military bombings and airstrikes in Myanmar, which have caused significant civilian casualties and further destabilized the region.
The Myanmar crisis raises questions about ASEAN’s role in resolving the conflict. It is difficult for ASEAN because it is committed to a non-intervention policy in its members’ domestic affairs.
Meanwhile, international pressure for ASEAN to be more proactive in resolving the Myanmar conflict has failed. Although ASEAN has encouraged Myanmar to become more democratic, the military is still in control.
In 2023, Indonesia became chair of ASEAN, providing an opportunity for diplomatic engagement to resolve the crisis in Myanmar. However, there was little progress before Indonesia’s role as ASEAN chair ended and Laos took over in 2024. The Indonesian government successfully persuaded the Myanmar military government to allow humanitarian assistance to victims of the conflict. However, diplomacy still has a long way to go in upholding humanity, human rights, and democracy.
Even though it no longer holds the ASEAN chair position, Indonesia can keep working to bring peace to Myanmar. Indonesia has had good relations with Myanmar, and even though the international community has criticized Myanmar for the military takeover, Indonesia has still respected the regime and encouraged democratic transformation.
It seems that Indonesia and other ASEAN countries will not succeed in their calls for a democratic transition because the military and pro-democracy groups are locked in dispute. Some paramilitary groups want democracy but use violence. Meanwhile, others want to break away from Myanmar entirely.
Indonesia can help Myanmar by sharing its experience of moving from a military to a civilian government in 1998 to promote democracy.
Indonesia is one of the key players in Myanmar’s peace process, not only because of Indonesia’s prominent role in ASEAN but also because it is committed to world peace. Indonesia is engaged in diplomatic efforts and uses non-megaphone diplomacy that eschews publicity.
Since the beginning of 2023, when Indonesia became chairman of ASEAN, it held up to 60 meetings in four months with various parties in Myanmar. These efforts are Indonesia’s commitment, through ASEAN, to continue promoting the achievement of peace in Myanmar according to the Five-Point Consensus agreed upon by Myanmar’s leader and nine ASEAN members in 2021.
The Five-Point Consensus, which includes cessation of violence, all-stakeholder dialogue, appointment of a special envoy, allowing humanitarian assistance, and opening access for ASEAN special envoys to meet with all interests in Myanmar, was a significant step toward peace in Myanmar. However, after the agreement, violence returned, and the military junta also refused to attend ASEAN-initiated peace talks. In addition, separatist and pro-democracy groups retaliated against the junta, leading to the humanitarian crisis in the country getting worse. The absence of other forces capable of counterbalancing the military regime has resulted in a prolonged crisis.
The lack of progress in resolving the crisis is a cause for concern.
ASEAN’s role as a significant power in the region is also being criticized as it has become less vocal on the Myanmar issue. Although ASEAN developed the Five-Point Consensus, it has seen little implementation, with Myanmar’s ruling junta largely unresponsive to the bloc’s efforts.
Meanwhile, calls for reform in ASEAN’s non-intervention policy are beginning to emerge.
Malaysian Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said that non-interference had contributed to ASEAN’s inability to make effective decisions quickly, and suggested a move toward a new policy of constructive engagement or non-indifference. With Malaysia taking over the ASEAN chair position in 2025, Kuala Lumpur’s stance is significant.
Some commentators argue that non-interference actually might harm ASEAN. Avoiding, delaying, and brushing issues aside behind non-interference becomes a comfortable refuge for ASEAN when faced with difficult challenges.
Looking ahead, ASEAN’s involvement in Myanmar will require sustained diplomatic efforts, creative solutions, and possibly a reassessment of its foundational policies. ASEAN’s future role may include continued quiet diplomacy, support for humanitarian aid, and incremental measures to encourage dialogue between Myanmar’s conflicting parties.
Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info.
