Since the ruling People Power Party’s defeat in the April general elections, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating has been tumbling, driven by a sluggish economy and mounting scandals involving his spouse. A recent Gallup poll recorded the president’s approval at a historic low of 17%. Support is also faltering in the traditional conservative strongholds of the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region – the heart of Yoon’s most loyal base.
Yoon and his party also grapple with external challenges. North Korea’s military provocations are intensifying by the day.
Pyongyang’s latest troop deployment to Ukraine has dramatically raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula. US President Joe Biden reportedly cited that move in his weekend decision to permit Ukraine to aim ATACMS long-range missiles at Russian territory as part of Kyiv’s effort to take control of land that is now about to be fought over by North Korean troops.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House adds another layer of complexity. Experts suggest that a second Trump presidency could fundamentally shift US foreign policy in East Asia, potentially undoing many of Yoon’s signature initiatives.
In an interview, Yoo Seong-min, a four-term ex-lawmaker and economist, shared his insight on these issues. Since entering politics in 2000, Yoo has led two conservative parties, has run for president (in 2017, winning the Bareun Party’s primary to become its candidate) and has held several key positions. Earlier, he received a doctorate in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and spent more than a decade as a researcher at the Korea Development Institute.
Q: On November 7, President Yoon held a press conference to respond to various controversies. What are your thoughts?
A: It was deeply disappointing. President Yoon did not offer a sincere apology or concrete plans for change at the conference. In particular, he failed to demonstrate a commitment to fully preventing unelected officials – like the first lady – from interfering in state affairs. Nor did he propose any effective remedies. The president’s decision to leave the first lady out of the upcoming G20 and APEC summits and to limit her public appearances is merely a temporary gesture. What the public demands is a permanent solution to prevent her behind-the-scenes influence, which can potentially create serious problems down the line.
Koreans place a particularly high value on equality, and there is strong resentment toward the actions of those in power—and their families—when they are perceived as exempt from the same standard. Unfortunately, both the Yoon and the Park Geun-hye administrations (2013-2017) have faced criticism for failing to uphold this ideal.
President Yoon’s popularity is sinking below 20% in conservative strongholds. What factors do you think are contributing to this decline?
Conservative voters in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Busan-Gyeongnam regions, the traditional bulwark of the right, are what keep the Yoon government afloat. I was elected in Daegu four times, so I know more about the people there than most politicians. They initially supported Yoon with the expectation that he would rectify the shortcomings of his predecessor and implement policies with rigor. But nothing seems to be working right now – be it the four major reforms (pension, labor, education, and medical reform) or economic policies.
That said, I’ve always urged that conservatives shouldn’t rely solely on those regions. When I was a member of parliament, I was the first to stress that conservatives needed to broaden their appeal to the moderates, metropolitan areas and younger voters. Only by gaining endorsements from these demographics can we implement our desired policies.
As an economist, how do you evaluate President Yoon’s economic policies?
I first coined the term “innovative growth” in 2016. The key focus of innovative growth is to enhance the competitiveness of private companies. At the time, I pledged to train one million individuals in high-demand sectors like AI and digital technologies, and the Yoon administration has seemingly followed my agenda. The problem, however, is that this policy is not being implemented effectively. The startup ecosystem also needs revamping, but the administration relies too heavily on existing companies and industries.
Meanwhile, the Yoon administration decided to increase medical school enrollment by 2,000 seats. This will further deplete the talent pool in science and technology. The brightest high school students in Korea will inevitably flock to medical schools, creating a shortage of skilled individuals heading to the private industries.
President Yoon often touts the catchphrase “private sector-led economic growth.” However, anyone with a basic understanding of economics knows this is simply a given in a market-driven economy. Relying solely on the free market does not guarantee economic progress. In the United States, for example, agencies like NASA and DARPA have been pivotal in developing advanced technologies that drove the fourth industrial revolution – technologies funded through government-led R&D. China follows a similar model.
Dr Mariana Mazzucato emphasizes this point in her 2013 book The Entrepreneurial State. What our government should do is take the lead in investing in areas where private companies are hesitant to venture and share the outcomes with those companies to foster their growth.
How about policy on North Korea?
President Yoon’s policy toward North Korea is centered on fighting fire with fire. However, I think we need to incorporate reciprocity while maintaining our core principles. Strengthening South Korea’s defense capabilities and deterring Pyongyang’s ambitions are indeed important. At the same time, however, ensuring peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula requires continued dialogue and engagement, not just confrontation.
The Yoon administration has also fallen short in its diplomatic efforts with Beijing and Moscow. North Korea recently deployed troops to support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. While South Korea must continue aiding Ukraine, it is equally important to maintain communication with Russian counterparts at this juncture. Engaging with President Vladimir Putin is necessary to prevent further North Korean military advancements, including nuclear missile development. This, of course, doesn’t require American consent.
Will President Yoon be able to foster genuine ties with President-elect Donald Trump?
First of all, Trump 2.0 will differ not only from the Biden administration but also from the first Trump tenure. Mr Trump is fundamentally a transactional person and views issues like defense cost-sharing primarily through a financial lens. Therefore, President Yoon’s “value-driven diplomacy” is unlikely to resonate with him or yield the same results as it might with other leaders.
What our president and Seoul officials need to learn is the “art of the deal.” Now, I’m not suggesting they flatter Washington. But issues like US troops in South Korea and defense cost-sharing should be considered negotiable. Japan and Germany face similar situations, but each case has a unique context. By analyzing other countries’ approaches, the South Korean government should present terms that align with its own interests but are palatable to Mr Trump.
Do you see yourself returning to politics?
Of course. I will work hard to compete in the People Power Party’s presidential primaries in fall 2026, aiming to run in the next presidential election.
Kenji Yoshida is a translator and a Seoul-based associate correspondent for JAPAN Forward.
