ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lankaâ€s central bank has bought 189.5 million US dollars from forex markets in October 2024, higher than the 96 million US dollars a month ago, official data showed.
From around late 2022 the central bank has run broadly deflationary policy, triggering balance of payments surpluses amid negative or weak private credit and net repayments of state energy enterprise credit.
When a reserve collecting central bank runs deflationary policy and mop up liquidity from dollar purchases, (generating a BOP surplus) it can either appreciate, depreciate or hold the exchange rate.
The central bank also allowed the exchange rate to appreciate amid balance of payments surplus in sharp contrast to other IMF program, where currencies are not appreciated even in deflationary policy for ‘competitive exchange ratesâ€.
The currency appreciation has set off a virtuous cycle of falling consumer prices (deflation), higher disposable incomes, and stronger retail sales on top of salary hikes by some companies, which will eventually trigger investment credit demand as firms seek to expand as existing capacity is utilized.
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In October, the central bank in addition to generating liquidity from dollar purchases, has also injected money through open market operations at rates near its corridor floor, triggering warnings that it is returning to policy errors of 2015, 2018 where external instability was triggered through open market operations when private credit recovered.
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Analyst say 2018 was an emblematic year as budget deficits were falling and fuel was market priced.
Yet due to open market operations including large volumes of outright purchases of Treasuries, to cut rates and target a mid-corridor call money rate (a single policy rate is another label that can be given), the currency collapsed.
Injected moneys which are loaned as bank credit, trigger currency pressure by triggering consumption or investments, leading to net reserve losses if exchange rate is defended and deprecation if it is not.
Private credit is now going through a steady recovery.
Private credit may not immediately trigger unsustainable imports that are unrelated to incomes earned from dollar inflows, as not all credit go towards imports, and it may need several rounds of cascading credit.
Energy SOE loans to cover losses and vehicle imports loans however are one to one import credits which will hit the exchange rate the same month the loans are made.
Government credit may not hit the exchange rate as some of the ‘credit to government†is interest which can be rolled over as paper as long as auction bids for maturing loans are not rejected.
SOEs have been generally cash plus over the past few months amid cost based price formula and they have also repaid debt on a net basis, allowing market interest rates to fall without money bring printed.
Government deficits are also down with primary surpluses being recorded (the deficit is only from interest). (Colombo/Nov10/2024)
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