Ranking Indy 500 drivers from 33 to 1: Can anyone unseat Josef Newgarden?

The traditional 33-driver field for the Indianapolis 500 will have a rookie and a two-time winner on the front row for 200 laps on Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. That mix of youth and experience spreads throughout the entire field for the 109th running of the event.

The cars are different this year. There’s a hybrid engine that adds approximately 100 pounds of weight to the rear of the car. That will disturb the balance and will also put plenty of weight on the psyche of the drivers, as they reach speeds of more than 230 miles an hour.

So you might want to consider the past history of the race with a grain of salt. And, yet, it seems this is a race that can be unpredictable no matter the familiarity with the car. Each time the green flag drops, fans will be guessing about what will happen.

Speaking of guesses, here are some educated guesses on ranking the drivers, 33-to-1, in the 2025 Indianapolis 500 field:

33. Rinus Veekay (Starting 31st)

VeeKay is making his sixth start at Indy, and he hasn’t started worse than Row 3 in any of his other starts. It’s a different world starting in the back row, and that might not be fun for the Dale Coyne Racing driver. He has struggled to find speed this year and he has no teammates in the field, as Jacob Abel was the lone one and he will miss the race.

32. Jack Harvey (26th)

The FOX Sports analyst is doing a one-off for Dreyer Reinbold Racing and is back for the Indy 500 after not racing it in 2024 after seven consecutive years making the race. He didn’t finish on the lead lap in his last two starts. He finished ninth in 2020.

31. Sting Ray Robb (17th)

Robb had an impressive qualifying result for Juncos Hollinger Racing. This is his third team in three years for the Indy 500, and he had a solid 16th-place run (and led 23 laps) in the race last year.

30. Marco Andretti (29th)

Andretti is making his 20th start for the team that still bears his family’s name, even though they don’t own it. His last top 10 came in 2017, and with the struggles they have had this month, that might be a lofty goal.

29. Devlin DeFrancesco (16th)

DeFrancesco competed at Indy in 2022 and 2023 for Andretti, and he has landed at Rahal Letterman Lanigan for the 2025 season. He hasn’t finished worse than 20th and had more speed than his teammates and he finished 13th in this race in 2023. So don’t be surprised if he finishes better than this ranking.

28. Ryan Hunter-Reay (25th)

Making his 17th start in the Indy 500, Hunter-Reay won the 2014 event driving for Andretti. This starting spot is a little disappointing, but he certainly knows how to manage this race. But like his teammate Harvey, driving for a Dreyer Reinbold team that only does the Indy 500 can be a little bit of a challenge.

27. Christian Rasmussen (18th)

After a solid 12th-place finish in his Indy 500 debut last year for Ed Carpenter, Rasmussen put together a respectable qualifying run after a spin in practice earlier in the week. The field is deep this year, and he very well could be in the mix.

26. Marcus Armstrong (30th)

Armstrong had a hard crash in practice on Saturday and his team converted a road-course car into a 500 car in a span of hours. He completed only six laps last year before a mechanical issue sent him to the garage. The Meyer Shank driver hopes to see his luck change.

25. Nolan Siegel (24th)

Siegel failed to qualify for last year’s race after crashing twice — once in the Friday practice and then again in qualifying Sunday. Solidly in the field and in his first year at Arrow McLaren, Siegel could have a good day, completing all the laps and gaining experience.

24. Callum Ilott (21st)

Ilott — teammate to the pole sitter Shwartzman and the “veteran” on the Prema Racing team — has finished 12th and 11th in his last two Indy 500 starts. He has experience on ovals (unlike his teammate), and that could be more beneficial than the pole.

23. Graham Rahal (28th)

Rahal hasn’t been happy with this car leading into his 18th start at Indy. He has only two top-10 finishes in his last nine starts in the 500. But experience has to count for something, right? 

22. Ed Carpenter (14th)

Carpenter makes his 22nd start in the Indy 500. The team owner has three top-six finishes in his last seven starts but has finishes from 17th to 20th the last three years. Considering where he’s starting, it is hard to gauge where he will finish.

21. Louis Foster (20th)

The defending Indy NXT Series champion will make his first start in the Indy 500. He has veteran drivers to lean on in the Rahal stable, as both Graham Rahal and Takuma Sato have considerable experience in the race.

20. Kyffin Simpson (13th)

Simpson started 18th and finished 21st in his only Indy 500 start. So starting 13th is an improvement, especially considering the Ganassi driver crashed in practice.

19. Robert Shwartzman (1st)

Yes, he’s on the pole. But let’s remember that Shwartzman has never competed on an oval, so how high can we really rank him? No one really knows how good the Prema Racing rookie will be once the green flag drops.

18. Kyle Larson (19th)

The NASCAR Cup Series points leader has had a mediocre week so far at Indianapolis. He still needs to get a little more comfortable in the car. Starting in the middle of the pack won’t be, at least for the start, comfortable at all. But he has good equipment from Arrow McLaren and a huge support team to make the double work, as he will head to Charlotte for the 600-miler on Sunday night in an attempt at 1,100 miles in one day.

17. David Malukas (7th)

Malukas has his best starting position in his third Indy 500. He didn’t race last year in the event, as he was still recovering from an injured wrist. So he made content for INDYCAR. While that was fun, the Foyt driver hopes to have more fun behind the wheel.

16. Helio Castroneves (22nd)

It’s a drive for five (wins) for Castroneves, who is seeking a record-breaking victory in his 25th start in the 500. The winner in 2001, 2002, 2009 and 2021, Castroneves has not had the speed in the Meyer Shank car that he would want. But as his resume suggests, he knows how to win here.

15. Conor Daly (11th)

Daly is the local boy done good and he will make his 12th Indy 500 start. He’s finished in the top 10 in his last three starts and has led 69 laps. The Juncos Hollinger Racing driver isn’t a favorite to win, but Indy is one of his best (if not the best) tracks so don’t be surprised if he flirts with a top-five finish.

14. Santino Ferrucci (15th)

Ferrucci has never finished outside the top 10 in six starts at Indianapolis, and he doesn’t plan on starting a new streak this year. But the week hasn’t gone as planned for the Foyt driver, and he has to hope the race isn’t as much of a struggle.

13. Colton Herta (27th)

Herta’s team assembled a backup car after he crashed his primary car in qualifying Saturday. Later that day, he put the car in the show, albeit in the back of the field. Herta has just two top-10 finishes in his six starts but the Andretti driver has the experience here to stay out of trouble (although he didn’t last year).

12. Kyle Kirkwood (23rd)

Kirkwood, the only driver other than Palou to have won a race this year, was confident going into qualifying. Even though that didn’t work out for him, the Andretti driver still has confidence in his car. Having finished seventh last year, he should finish better than where he starts.

11. Alexander Rossi (12th)

Rossi won the 2016 Indy 500 as a rookie and has backed that up with five other top-five finishes in his nine starts. He has three top fives in a row, one with Andretti and two with Arrow McLaren. But now he’s with Ed Carpenter Racing and execution will be key.

10. Takuma Sato (2nd)

Sato won the 2017 and 2020 races at Indianapolis. So it’s no surprise that he’s starting second and has been fast, despite it being a one-off race for him with the Rahal team, and he crashed hard in testing a month ago. While he has speed, the fact he hasn’t raced in INDYCAR for a year won’t help.

9. Christian Lundgaard (8th)

Lundgaard, who moved to Arrow McLaren from Rahal Letterman Lanigan after last season, is making his first top-10 start, his first top-20 start and his first top-25 start in the Indy 500. Now he looks for his first top-10 in the race.

8. Felix Rosenqvist (5th)

Making his seventh start for his fourth organization in the Indy 500, Rosenqvist is making his fourth consecutive top-10 start. But he has finished in the top 20 only once in the last four years. If he can get to the finish, the Shank driver will have to show he can make the winning moves.

7. Marcus Ericsson (9th)

Ericsson won the 2022 Indy 500 with a power move and then finished second in 2023. An accident on the opening lap last year means the Andretti driver will be making his first race laps in two years come Sunday.

6. Will Power (33rd)

Power, the 2018 Indy 500 winner, has five consecutive finishes of 14th or worse in the race. But that stat is probably more about bad luck than performance. The Team Penske driver is in a contract year and needs to have a good day. And the team needs to rebound from failing tech with Josef Newgarden and Will Power being sent to the rear and having their strategists suspended for the race.

5. Scott McLaughlin (10th)

On Sunday, he wrecked the car that he put on the pole a year ago, so McLaughlin will now race a new car in the Indy 500. While the car might be a little unfamiliar, McLaughlin knows how to get around IMS. He led 66 laps in 2024. 

4. Alex Palou (6th)

The INDYCAR points leader has won four of the first five races of the season but has never won on an oval. The Ganassi driver has a second, a ninth, a fourth and a fifth in his last four Indy 500 starts, so I wouldn’t expect him to remain outside the top five for long. He has led 119 laps in his five Indy races. The only question that remains is whether he can lead the last one.

3. Scott Dixon (4th)

Dixon enters his 23rd Indy 500 and he has two podium finishes in his last five starts. The 2008 Indy 500 winner, Dixon continues to ooze his typical quiet confidence. The Ganassi driver has led 677 laps in his career at Indianapolis.

2. Pato O’Ward (3rd)

O’Ward has finished second in two of the last three years and has led a combined 93 laps in the last four Indy 500s. The Arrow McLaren driver seems so relaxed and embraces everything that Indianapolis Motor Speedway has to offer. He just hopes it’s offering a Borg-Warner Trophy in 2025.

1. Josef Newgarden (32nd)

The winner of back-to-back Indianapolis 500s, a third consecutive victory would be unprecedented and would put Newgarden in quite rare air. The odds are against the Penske driver, as the racing gods rarely bless a driver that much in such a short period of time. But Newgarden is fearless. The qualifying drama where his car failed tech and has him starting at the rear probably just annoys him more. And that might or might not be a good thing, considering he already has an intense desire to achieve heights that no one else has. 

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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