DES MOINES, Iowa — Iowa looked a lot different in 2010, when Kim Reynolds was first elected to statewide office.
Reynolds was the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor on the ticket alongside former Gov. Terry Branstad. Barack Obama was president, supported by a majority of Iowa voters who had helped send the Illinois Democrat to the White House just two years earlier.
Iowa’s federal delegation was split politically. Democrats held majorities in the Iowa House and Senate.
And Donald Trump hosted “The Apprentice.”
Reynolds’ surprise announcement last week that she would not seek a third term as governor after nearly a decade in the office set Des Moines abuzz with who might jump in to a newly wide open primary race, the first for Iowa Republicans since 2010.
It also left some Democrats feeling a glimmer of hope that they could make inroads after years of total Republican control. That likely would require substantial backlash against the Trump administration, but that’s more likely in a midterm election.
A strong candidate would help, as would a deep campaign chest. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only elected Democrat statewide, has not announced a run for governor but has announced $8 million in campaign contributions, most of which came from his or his extended family’s pockets.
Meanwhile, at least a half dozen Iowa Republicans have suggested they are thinking about their political futures in the week since Reynolds’ announcement. That includes Attorney General Brenna Bird; Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig; House Speaker Pat Grassley, grandson of the state’s senior U.S. senator; and Rep. Bobby Kaufmann, son of the state GOP’s chairman.
Reynolds became Iowa’s first female governor after Trump left reality television behind, ran for the presidency in 2016 and won, then appointed Branstad as U.S. ambassador to China the following year. She won election to a full term in 2018 and reelection in 2022 and has presided over a sharp rightward political shift in Iowa, where nearly every statewide and federal officeholder is Republican and both statehouse chambers hold large GOP majorities.
She’s the first eligible incumbent governor in the U.S. to opt out of a 2026 race, leaving Iowa suddenly headed toward a political shake-up in a midterm election year.
“You’d much rather stage a campaign with a proven, seasoned, winning and winsome candidate. And Gov. Reynolds, had she run, would have punched all those cards,” said David Oman, who served as chief of staff to Republican Govs. Robert Ray and Branstad. “Now, we have to reload.”
But in a state without term limits on the office, where only five governors have served over the last five decades, Reynolds’ decision provides a rare opportunity.
“In this state, somebody gets elected, they serve three to four terms. You can wait, and your shelf life is gone,” Oman said. “If your ambition is to serve as governor and you learned today that that office is opening up … this is your time to act.”
In her announcement April 11, Reynolds said there’s a foundation of “strong conservative leadership” that will carry the state forward. It’s a nod to a sizable bench of Republican leaders — many of whom she worked to elect — in other statewide offices, in Congress and in the statehouse.
Some have waited years to try for the top of the ticket.
“It’s been 16 years since we’ve had an open seat,” Reynolds acknowledged Monday in an interview with Iowa radio host Jeff Angelo. “I think that’s a healthy process for people to really lay out their ideas and their vision for where they’re gonna take this great state moving forward.”
That’ll occur for the first time in a governor’s race in Iowa since Trump secured his grip on the Republican Party, including in Iowa, where he decisively won the 2024 presidential GOP caucuses and began his return to the White House.
It leaves many wondering whether — and when — Trump might weigh in.
Trump has endorsed dozens of gubernatorial candidates before their primaries since he first took office in 2017, according to an analysis by The Associated Press. Of those, only a handful did not advance to the general election.
Of the 36 primary winners, 24 won their general election, four lost to sitting Democratic governors and eight lost open seats.
How a primary, with or without a Trump endorsement, shakes out could impact candidates down the ballot, especially if sitting federal or state lawmakers choose to run in the primary for governor instead of their current office, leaving more open seats in the general election.
The Democrats’ campaign arm announced last week that it was targeting three of Iowa’s four congressional seats, two of which are considered among the most competitive races in the country.
Now, too, the Democratic Governors Association says there is a “real chance for Democrats to win in 2026” without an incumbent governor in the mix.
“When there are big open Republican primaries, they tend to elect extreme and flawed candidates that struggle in general elections,” communications director Sam Newton said. “We’re keeping a close eye on it.”
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Maya Sweedler contributed from Washington.
