the CCC gives UK climate progress a cautious thumbs up – Inside track

In a week dominated by geopolitical turmoil, the annual progress report from the UK government’s climate advisers, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), has flown largely under the radar. But it deserves attention.

This year’s report, the first full assessment under the current government, offers a welcome note of optimism. After a period marked by policy uncertainty, the CCC suggests that the UK’s efforts to cut emissions are going in the right direction. Progress is visible in key areas such as power sector decarbonisation and clean heat uptake, though serious challenges remain.

Our 2030 climate target is within reach
The report finds that the UK’s 2030 target to cut carbon pollution by more than two thirds from 1990 levels, as agreed under the Paris climate agreement, is within reach.  Effective policies on clean power and transport, alongside some reductions in industrial emissions, have helped to reduce UK emissions by 3.5 per cent in 2024. This figure excludes the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping, not included in our Paris target. Since 1990, emissions have fallen by 54.2 per cent on this basis. The UK is now well over halfway to net zero and is steadily reducing its exposure to volatile international fossil fuel markets, lowering the risk of future energy price shocks.

There are good reasons to assume the 2030 Paris target is achievable. We are rapidly increasing renewable energy on the grid, putting more electric vehicles (EVs) on the road and installing more heat pumps.

Still, the CCC warns that the pace at which emissions fall needs to more than double in the second half of this decade.

We’ve seen good progress on power and electric vehicles
Coal power was finally consigned to the history books last year. Renewables, led by offshore wind and solar, generated over half of the UK’s electricity for the first time. While offshore and onshore wind have a strong pipeline of capacity and the CCC thinks are on track to meet the government’s 2030 clean power target, solar is lagging.

The UK is now Europe’s largest market for EVs. One in five new cars sold is now electric, and public charge points increased by nearly 40 per cent last year. Surface transport emissions fell by two per cent, twice the drop we saw the previous year. With upfront costs for EVs expected to hit parity with petrol and diesel cars by 2028, the CCC expects this momentum to continue.

The market for clean heat is also warming up. Installations hit a record high last year and the CCC notes that emissions savings from heat pumps are now doubling roughly every two years. The UK is still behind other countries in heat pump installation rates and off track from the CCC’s preferred roll out rate. The introduction of the Clean Heat Market Mechanism and an increase in the Boiler Upgrade Scheme should drive further growth.

There’s still room for improvement
There’s no denying that challenges remain. The CCC flags the risk that changes to the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate could slow the pace of EV sales and emissions reductions. In industry, the UK’s persistently high electricity to gas price ratio is a major barrier to electrification and decarbonisation. The government pledged in its Industrial Strategy to tackle high power prices for industry, but these reforms won’t be introduced until 2027 and will cover only some businesses as well as not addressing underlying wholesale power costs.

Aviation emissions continue to rise, now contributing a greater share of total UK emissions than the entire electricity supply sector. This trend shows the dangers inherent in Labour’s plans to expand airports at Heathrow and elsewhere.

The CCC again stresses the need to make electricity cheaper relative to gas to encourage take up of efficient electric technologies across sectors. High electricity costs, driven by the high price of gas, are distorting incentives to go green. Addressing this would help sustain EV sales and make heat pumps more attractive for households.

A credible climate action plan
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch recently claimed that it would be impossible to end our contribution to climate change in the next 25 years. This pessimistic view has more to do with politics than it does with the facts. The UK’s progress so far shows that, with the right policies, reaching the 2050 target is possible.

The government’s refreshed climate action plan, due by October, is a chance for it to set out a credible path for accelerating the shift to a low carbon economy while delivering energy independence, growth and better living standards. Delivering on these policies can help to advance the its central growth mission through the development of new, low carbon industries which many analysts expect to dominate the economy of the future.

The impact of previous policy decisions is beginning to show, and the government now has a clear opportunity to build on this momentum.