At the beginning of 2025, the Trump administration introduced more stringent rules with regard to the process of applying for an H-1B visa. The change has already let to a decrease in the number of applications. While the program is aimed at hiring skilled foreign professionals in the U.S. – and in this sense is not restricted to attracting labor from one country – it is Indians that typically receive the lion’s share of H-1B visas. This group will thus be most affected by the new changes.
Washington’s moves remind us about the strength and significance of Indian immigration to the U.S. – of which the H-1B visa program is but one part.
U.S. Government’s Conflicted View of Immigration…
U.S. President Donald Trump – and his government, and his party – remain conflicted about the program, and, more widely, about immigration from India.
During his first tenure, Trump tried to halt the H-1B program but was blocked. At that time, he referred to the program as “very bad,” though recently he called it “great.” Similarly, one the supporters of the H-1B program was Trump’s fellow Republican, Vivek Ramaswamy (himself the son of Indian immigrants) who at the same time somehow espouses belief in the “Great Replacement Theory.”
This rift is arguably part of a larger split with the Republican camp regarding immigration – from India as well as many other countries. On one hand, Trump and his supporters continuously stress the need to prioritize American jobs and to curb immigration – illegal as well as legal.
Legal immigration into the U.S. forms the backbone of the country’s demographic growth as such; illegal immigration is its own separate issue. As U.S. census data shows, U.S. demographic growth now consists much more of arrivals (net immigration) than births (natural growth). To put it more simply: today, the U.S. is avoiding demographic decline only because of immigration.
There is thus a discrepancy between the current U.S. government criticizing immigration and also relying on it both to keep the population from declining and to feed the job market. This is seen in a number of ways, not just the case of H-1B visas. Trump, himself the grandson of German immigrants who is married to a Yugoslavia-born immigrant, selected J.D. Vance as his vice president, whose wife is the daughter of Indian immigrants. His pick for the director of the FBI was Kash Patel, the son of Indian immigrants from Uganda. His adviser on artificial intelligence is India-born Sriram Krishnan – and the list goes on.
The attitudes toward this process from the Indian side are curious as well.
…and New Delhi’s Conflicted View of Emigration
On one hand, it is clear that emigration to the U.S. yields benefits to the Indian economy. There are around 10 million people of Indian origin in the U.S., and many of them belong to the middle class – not only that, but many rank among the highest-earning layer of the middle class. Today, more Indians leave their country to work in Gulf countries than to the U.S., but their numbers do not reflect their economic weight. Indian workers in the Gulf countries mostly comprise cheap labor while the Indians employed in the U.S. are mostly skilled professionals. The same applies to many American citizens of Indian origin.
The Indian diaspora in the U.S. is thus not only the largest Indian diaspora worldwide, but likely the richest one. The excess money that both Indian-origin U.S. citizens, and Indian citizens working in the U.S., send back to India helps fuel the Indian economy. In 2022, as per the World Bank estimates, India received $111.2 billion in remittances, more than any other country in the world. The U.S. is estimated to be the largest source of remittances for Indian economy.
On the other hand, every skilled Indian professional is someone whom an Indian company back in India can no longer hire; whose taxes are paid in the U.S.; whose inventions will be registered under an American patent. This is commonly known as the “brain drain.” In this way, Indian emigration to the U.S. is both more valuable (in terms of remittances) and more harmful (in terms of lost talent) than emigration to Gulf countries.
The Indian government is attempting to at least limit the brain drain to a lesser leak by offering various schemes for Indian professionals residing overseas, hoping to attract them back. Amongst these is the Ramanujan Scholarship (commenced 2005-2006), awarded to younger Indian scientists who choose to take up a position at Indian universities. These measures have clearly not been enough, however. In fiscal year 2024 alone, over 200,000 Indians came to the U.S. on H-1B visas.
Moreover, while the Indian government is attempting to woo some Indians back, it is also facilitating many of them leaving the country. In May this year, India’s Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar presided over the opening of a private foundation, Global Access to Talent from India (GATI), one of the purposes of which is to help Indians find jobs overseas. Thus, while immigration helps the U.S. deal with demographic decline and stabilize the economy, for India it is emigration that helps deal with demographic growth – and also stabilizes the economy.
As India has probably already become the most populated country in the world – with an estimated population of 1.4-1.5 billion people – its government can, for now, possibly afford to do both: woo some Indians back, while helping others leave. This is not only because of the size of the population but because those that are being wooed back are skilled professionals, while the exodus is of cheap labor.
Future Ebbs and Flows – and Who Will Benefit
This calculus will change only once India’s own demographic growth starts to decline. The last time that a census was conducted in India, in 2011, the largest age group were those in the 5-9 bracket. Such people are now 19-23 years old, and many of them are likely looking for jobs. For want of options, or for want of better options, many are looking in other countries for opportunities. Thus, India’s moment is now: the country will either make use of this demographic potential or will be weakened by the discontent of the unemployed.
Back in 2011, the age group of Indians below 4 years was slightly smaller than the 5-9 group. This suggests the beginning, if a gradual one, of the slowing down of India’s demographic growth. Over time, therefore, emigration may become a much larger problem for the Indian economy, rather than being of partial benefit and partial relief that it is now. This shift, however, is still many years away.
Getting back to the present conditions, one could theoretically argue that if the Trump administration indeed succeeds in severely curbing the immigration of skilled professionals this will, on a certain level, benefit India in the sense of limiting its brain drain. But this is unlikely, as the U.S. is just one destination for Indian skilled labor. Over the past several months, when heads of governments, such as the German chancellor or the Dutch prime minister, visited New Delhi, one of the subjects for discussion was attracting more young Indian professionals to Europe. As long as the Indian economy is less attractive to many skilled Indians, those who will not get their slot for a visa to the U.S. may simply end up going elsewhere: to Europe, and perhaps to other demographically declining developed economies such as South Korea and Japan.
