In 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump stood alongside Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston. The atmosphere was electric. Indian Americans cheered, and New Delhi appeared fully invested in the Trump presidency. Trump’s popularity in India eclipsed that of his successor Joe Biden and even Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, who is herself of Indian ancestry. Trump’s re-election in 2024 thus seemed like the beginning of a new, stronger chapter in India-U.S. relations.
That chapter is now closing fast. India is beginning to question the value of its strategic alignment with Washington. And the United States is handing it every reason to do so.
On July 25, when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar in Washington to discuss trade and critical minerals, New Delhi took notice. This was not the first time a high-level engagement with Pakistan had stirred unease in India. But the timing, messaging, and broader context made this moment impossible to ignore. Why, many in New Delhi asked, would Washington deepen ties with a country that actively undermines India’s security, especially after decades of painstaking work to build India-U.S. relations?
Worse still, Trump’s renewed talk of mediating between India and Pakistan, including on the Kashmir dispute, has reopened old wounds. India has long maintained that Kashmir and other sensitive issues must be handled bilaterally. Any interference, no matter how well-intentioned, is seen as a breach of sovereignty.
Trump’s talk of mediation thus sends a clear message to India that its core concerns are negotiable. If Washington is serious about deepening ties with India, such comments are at best a diplomatic misstep and at worst strategic self-sabotage on a grand scale.
Pakistan’s sponsorship of cross-border terrorism is a direct national security threat for India Any United States administration that ignores this point is guilty of diplomatic negligence. India does not ask for unconditional alignment, only consistency and respect for its core interests from the United States.
This indifference is especially jarring now that India is recalibrating its foreign policy. No longer shielded by nonalignment, India has leaned into pragmatic engagement with the West. New Delhi has joined frameworks like the Quad, committed to expanding military exercises like Malabar, and demonstrated readiness to share responsibility in the Indo-Pacific. India is doing its part, but partnerships cannot be one-sided.
Trump’s mixed signals and public overtures to Pakistan are actively undermining India-U.S. ties, to unclear ends. Pakistan is economically fragile, politically volatile, and increasingly tethered to China. India, by contrast, brings capacity, credibility, and the geopolitical leverage needed to shape Asia’s balance of power.
By engaging Pakistan – a state firmly within Beijing’s orbit – and wavering on India’s core concerns, the United States is weakening trust and undermining the very alliances and partnerships it claims to prioritize. The United States must decide if it wants a steady, forward-looking partner in India or a string of transactional dealings with Pakistan that only breed mistrust.
India is managing a delicate and high-stakes relationship with China, and despite this challenge, it remains committed to regional stability, alongside Australia and Japan. Yet none of these countries can uphold the Indo-Pacific vision alone while Washington continues to send conflicting signals. U.S. inconsistency hands Beijing a strategic advantage. It allows China to appear more predictable and, at times, more reasonable in contrast.
The original rationale for closer India-U.S. ties was straightforward: India is the only democratic power in Asia with the capacity to balance China’s growing assertiveness. That rationale still holds true, and the need is more pressing than ever. Beijing is stepping up pressure on Taiwan. The South China Sea remains volatile. The regional balance is shifting. Washington cannot afford to sideline its trusted partner in Asia, lest it weaken the Indo-Pacific framework from the inside out.
As India and Pakistan traded strikes in early May U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said of the conflict, “It’s none of our business.” If the Trump administration still holds this view – that what happens in South Asia is of no concern – then the United States should step aside.
If the Trump administration does envision a role for itself in the region, then now is the moment to demonstrate that the United States sees India as more than a convenient partner. The Trump administration must clarify its long-term priorities. India is an indispensable and equal partner, and must be treated as such. Doing otherwise risks damaging a partnership that may never fully recover. Rebuilding trust will take decades; influencing India’s increasingly confident strategic autonomy will be even harder.
Ignoring India’s concerns not only jeopardizes the bilateral partnership but also strengthens voices within India that argue the West cannot be trusted. As it stands now, the Trump administration is giving those voices every reason to say, “We told you so!”
