This week will signal if tariffs are hurting todayheadline

Ever since President Donald Trump announced his big tariff plans on April 2, battles have raged about how the tariff may hurt the U.S. and the global economy. 

The financial markets have offered deep skepticism about that the plan will do much for the economy. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 10.5% in the two days after the announcement. 

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And despite a huge 9.5% rally on April 9 after the president suspended many of his tariffs for 90 days, the index is still off nearly 6.9% from April 2 and down 10.2% for the year.

Futures trading Sunday evening suggests stocks will open lower on Monday as investors take a wait-and-see attitude before committing more cash. 

Related: Elon Musk’s very important date on Tuesday

Here are the events this week that many investors will use as signals that the coast is clear to invest now — or delay.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chairman?

This is the wildcard event because it hasn’t happened. But you never know. 

Donald Trump, a real estate guy, hates high interest rates and wants interest rates to be cut now, and he has reportedly said Powell’s termination “can’t come fast enough.”

That said, the Federal Reserve and its chairman remain deeply concerned about continuing stubborn inflation pressures. 

So, all last week, the question was whether Trump would try to remove Powell as chairman before his term ends in May 2026. 

Reports even suggested the President has been talking to Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, about becoming Fed chairman. 

Powell has said he won’t quit before the end of his term, and he believes he can’t be fired without cause. There’s a case now before the Supreme Court on this point.

Powell has the trust of Wall Street and much of the global financial world. What’s not clear is how markets would greet replacing him.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Due at 10 a.m. Friday. This is another wildcard, but it has been flashing alarm bells for months and can move markets.

It asks a panel of consumers to talk about their current outlooks on the economy and their confidence in the future. Tariffs, theoretically, should be high among their worries.

This is purely soft data, as Fed Chair Powell says, but it often translates into real data. So, it is watched very carefully.

Here are the other reports to watch.

Leading economic indicators

This report, due at 10 a.m. ET Monday from the Conference Board, a business research group, is an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term.

Above 100, the index, which include stock prices as a component, signals continuing growth, and February’s report put the index at 101, its third straight monthly decline. Growth but not by much. 

Stocks have struggled in April because of tariff worries.

It was as high as 120 in 2021 before the Fed pushed interest rates higher to quash inflation. It was as low as 73 in early 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis. 

Related: Analyst unveils surprising Microsoft stock price target after tariff slump

S&P Flash U.S. PMI reports 

Due at 9:45 a.m. Wednesday. PMI stands for Purchasing Managers Index, which measure reported contracts. In other words, business that will happen. S&P releases one measuring what services managers are seeing. 

A second is on what managers of manufacturing companies are seeing. The services PMI for March was at 54.4, signaling the economy is still expanding. The manufacturing index for March was at 50.1, barely growing.

The point for raising these reports is anecdotes that business are struggling to make planning decision with constant tariff threats.

New-home sales for March 

Due at 10 a.m. Wednesday from the U.S. Census Bereau. The report estimates sales rates for new homes, and that can include a signed contract and deposit put down. 

Related: Many Americans struggle with growing housing problem

It’s useful as a signal of buyer demand. It’s measured each month as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Since 2000, that monthly average is about 697,000. It was at 676,000 in February. The highest monthly sales rate was 1.389 million units in July 2005. The lowest: 270,000 in February 2011.

Housing is among the most sensitive stock groups. The iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund  (ITB)  closed at $89.07 on Friday, up on the day but down 31% from its October peak.

Stocks in the ETF include builders D.R. Horton  (DHI)  and Lennar  (LEN ) H and retailers Lowe’s  (LOW)  and Home Depot  (HD) , and paint manufacturer Sherwin-Williams  (SHW) , 

More Economic Analysis:

• Wall Street overhauls S&P 500 price targets as tariff selloff accelerates
• Inflation would like a word, please
• Stocks could bounce, but big bank earnings hold the cards

Beige Book report

Released at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve, this is a narrative picture of the domestic economy written by the staffs of the 12 Federal Reserve banks around the country. 

This is a purely qualitative report, built on interviews with businesses, bankers and labor leaders. It adds color to the data and often signals new trends. Watch for comments on tariffs.

Initial jobless claims

Due at 8:30 a.m. Thursday, this is an early signal of what’s happening to jobs. A big jump or drop will get investor attention quickly. This will reflect data collected as of April 19.

Durable goods orders for March

Due at 8:30 a.m. Thursday. Especially core durable goods orders, which strips out orders for transportation equipment (aircraft and the like) Rising good orders shows business are investing, a sign of a healthy economy. The main report showed a gain in February, but core orders were down 0.6%. Tariff uncertainty may hurt the numbers.

Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast