Tropical Storm Barry has come and gone » Yale Climate Connections

Blink and you missed it: Tropical Storm Barry formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche at 11 a.m. EDT Sunday, June 29, but had already dissipated by early Monday morning. Barry peaked with top sustained winds of 45 mph on Sunday afternoon, then weakened to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds on Sunday evening before making landfall just south of Tampico, Mexico, around 9 p.m. EDT Sunday. Barry was a tropical storm for only about 12 hours. Barry’s main impact was from heavy rains of three to six inches, which likely caused minor flooding near Tampico.

Barry’s formation was aided by warm sea surface temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius (84°F), which were near-average for this time of year. High wind shear of 20-25 knots from strong upper-level winds kept Barry from becoming very strong. Barry’s formation date of June 29 came well before the typical July 17 appearance of the season’s second named storm (based on 1991-2020 climatology). The usual date of the Atlantic’s first hurricane is August 11.

A record-weak one-two punch from the season’s first two named storms

Barry followed on the heels of another underachieving tropical storm, Andrea, which formed on June 24 in the remote central Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores Islands. Andrea also lasted about 12 hours as a named storm. According to hurricane scientist Michael Lowry, Andrea and Barry have jointly produced an anemic 0.6 on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE scale, and “never in the modern record (since at least 1950) have the first two storms of the season produced so little activity as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE.” Now that’s a record we like to see!

A Fourth of July weekend threat area to watch near Florida

A stalled front expected to be draped across northern Florida late this week could spawn a tropical depression over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico or off the northeast Florida coast over the Fourth of July weekend. In its 8 a.m. EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave two-day and seven-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively, to this future threat.

Old frontal zones often serve as seed locations for early-season tropical storms. But for now, the GFS and European ensemble models are showing limited enthusiasm for development. Steering currents this weekend will be weak, however, so any system that forms will likely move slowly, bringing heavy rains to the central Gulf Coast and Florida. The seven-day rainfall forecast from NOAA (Fig. 2) shows heavy rains of four to 10 inches (10-25 cm) affecting this region through next Monday.

‘Shorties’ growing more common in the Atlantic

Barry and Andrea are the type of weak and short-lived storms that might not have been named in the days before satellite imagery was available in the Atlantic, as explained in our 2021 post, “Why are there so many Atlantic named storms? Five possible explanations.” The large increase in recent decades in the number of so-called “shorties” – named storms that last two or less days at tropical storm strength – has thus far not been demonstrated to have a climate change connection; improvements in our ability to detect and diagnose these systems are likely to be a major factor. Weak, short-lived early-season storms like Barry have grown more common, making it difficult for storms beginning in A, B, and C to get their names retired: only three have been retired in the past 25 years (Allison, 2001; Charley, 2004; Beryl, 2024).  

Tropical Storm Flossie may become a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific

Unlike the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific has been producing more tropical cyclones than average so far this year, and some have been quite robust. A tropical depression that formed early Sunday almost 300 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, was upgraded to Tropical Storm Flossie later that morning. As of 11 a.m. EDT Monday, Flossie’s top sustained winds had reached 60 mph. The storm remained offshore, paralleling the Pacific coast of Mexico, as is common with storms in this region. That offshore track is expected to continue, though Flossie’s outer bands could pummel coastal areas of Colima, Michoacán, and Guerrero states with as much as six 15 to eight inches (15-20 cm) of rain.

Through Tuesday, Flossie will pass over sea surface temperatures of 29-30 degrees Celsius (84-86°F), about 1-2°F warmer than normal for this time of year. This rich fuel, along with light to moderate wind shear and a moist mid-level atmosphere, is predicted to allow Flossie to rapidly strengthen, possibly reaching Category 2 hurricane strength by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Gradual weakening will ensue afterward, as Flossie encounters much cooler water, and a much-depleted Flossie or its remnants may move near the west coast of Baja California this weekend. Another tropical disturbance has a 30% chance of development over the next week in roughly the same area where Flossie was spawned, according to the Tropical Weather Summary issued at 8 a.m. EDT Monday.

Flossie took shape more than a month ahead of the typical date of August 3 for the region’s sixth named storm (based on 1991-2020 climatology). If it gets strong enough, Flossie will be the region’s third hurricane, following Barbara and Erick. The latter peaked with 145-mph sustained winds and plowed ashore in Mexico’s far western Oaxaca state at Category 3 strength, causing at least 23 deaths and more than $200 million in damage.