ondon’s Covid reproduction (’R’) rate has fallen from between 1.2-1.6 to 0.9-1.2 in the past week, it was revealed on Friday.
The latest update suggests the pandemic may no longer be growing in the capital.
It comes as a top statistician said it is unlikely the UK will see a large spike in serious illness and deaths due to the Omicron variant.
Sir David Spiegelhalter from the University of Cambridge told the BBC data in London suggests hospitalisations are stabilising and may even be declining, although admissions are rising in other parts of the country.
He said: “There’s still no sign of a serious increase in intensive care ventilation and deaths, and we would have expected to see that by now.”
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Major incident will help keep Northamptonshire ‘in front of the curve’
More from a media briefing which took place earlier on Friday after Northamptonshire declared a system-wide major incident.
Local resilience forum chairman and chief fire officer at Northamptonshire Fire and Rescue Service Darren Dovey said: “We see it as a positive move in us being able to share intelligence between each other in order to get in front of the curve, should the situation deteriorate.
“Most of that pressure is being felt in the health and social care arena… but as we are seeing across the country, staff absence rates are very, very high, admissions are increasing into hospital and social care absences and the pressure in that system is creating full system pressure.
“In order just to coordinate our activity and assist each other where we can, we felt the best way to do that was to declare a major incident and put the structures in place to be able to deal with it.”
NHS is facing ‘rocky few weeks ahead’, Sajid Javid warns
Health Secretary Sajid Javid has warned hospital admissions are rising and that the NHS was facing a “rocky few weeks ahead”.
Speaking during a visit to King’s College Hospital London, Mr Javid said: “We are in a stronger position than we were last year thanks to the vaccinations and the testing, we have boosted more people in this country than in any other country in Europe, we’ve got more antivirals per head than any other country in Europe, we’re testing more people per head than any other country in Europe.
“The best thing anyone can do if they haven’t already is get boosted or get your first or second jab if you haven’t had one.”
During the visit he said the intensive care unit for Covid patients had an estimated 70 per cent of patients unvaccinated and that this was a “reminder to us all” of the importance of vaccination.
Asked about his reported opposition to relaxing international travel testing rules, Mr Javid said: “I want to see more travel open up – I want to see it being made as easy as it possibly can be and it should always be a balance of caution and approach”, adding the approach announced this week was the “right balance”.
R number between 1.2 and 1.5 in England
England’s reproduction “R” number is estimated at between 1.2 and 1.5, according to the UK Health Security Agency.
This has risen on the previous estimate of 1.0 to 1.2, published by the UKHSA on December 23.
An R number between 1.2 and 1.5 means that for every 10 people infected, they will on average infect between 12 and 15 other people.
Meanwhile, London’s R number is 0.9 to 1.2.
Scotland’s latest Covid data is out
Scotland recorded 15 coronavirus-linked deaths and 14,486 new cases in the past 24 hours, figures published on Friday show.
Some 21.7 per cent of all coronavirus tests were positive, down from 23.1 per cent on Thursday.
The new data takes the total number of deaths in people who tested positive for the virus in the past 28 days to 9,905.
The figures include a note advising of delays between tests being taken and results reported.
Public Health Scotland is monitoring the situation.
There were 1,323 people in hospital on Thursday with recently confirmed Covid-19, up 56 in 24 hours, and 48 were in intensive care, up five.
More than 35 million people in the UK have now had a booster, data shows
A total of 231,856 booster and third doses of Covid-19 vaccine were reported across the UK on Thursday, new figures show.
More than 35 million booster and third doses have now been delivered in the UK, with just over one million in the past seven days.
Nearly 66% of all adults in the UK have now received a booster or third dose.
The figures have been published by the UK’s four health agencies.
Military not required in West Northamptonshire, says council chief executive
Anna Earnshaw, chief executive of West Northamptonshire Council, said she does not think military support is currently required after the council declared a system-wide major incident.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s World At One programme, she said: “We benefited hugely in the first wave of the pandemic from military help around planning – they are extremely good at planning and logistics and everything else – so the chances are that if we need that, it may well be there that we need it.
“But at the moment we are fortunate in the sense that our fire and police services are not quite at that same stage, and are absolutely helping us too in terms of that coverage.
No decision about the Six Nations rugby in Wales next month – First Minister
First Minister Mark Drakeford told a Welsh Government briefing that no decisions have been made about whether the Six Nations rugby matches can go ahead in Wales next month with crowds attending.
He said: “We have to see the tide turn on the Omicron wave, we have to manage our way through the very difficult weeks that follow while numbers are still rising.
“If the model is accurate, we see those numbers coming down – reasonably rapidly as they have risen – then we will be in a position to see whether it is safe to allow greater social mixing.
Wales’ health service ‘not overwhelmed by facing challenging circumstances’
Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford has denied the Welsh NHS has been “overwhelmed” by the Omicron variant.
He said: “I don’t think it would be right to describe it as being overwhelmed but the health service in Wales is quite certainly having to deal with the very real impact of coronavirus – both in the way it is driving more people to fall ill and then to need hospital treatment but the fact staff in the health service are themselves falling ill from the Omicron wave.
“Health boards are having to make difficult decisions, such as in maternity services, to concentrate the staff they have available in fewer places so that a service can go on to be provided.
“Not overwhelmed but quite certainly facing very challenging circumstances.”
Boris Johnson has no plans to introduce further restrictions, Downing Street says
Boris Johnson still sees no need for further Covid restrictions in England despite rising staff absences in the NHS due to the virus, Downing Street has said.
After the Ministry of Defence announced the deployment of 200 troops to assist hospitals in London, a No 10 spokesman said ministers would ensure the health service had the support it needed.
However, he said the Covid booster jab programme meant there was not the same level of pressure on intensive care units seen in previous waves.
“The Prime Minister has been clear on controls. Plan B is balanced and proportionate to respond to the Omicron variant. It is continuing to help reduce its spread. But the important thing is the booster programme and the effectiveness it has in stopping the disease,” the spokesman said.
He added: “The military have helped out throughout the pandemic and they will do so again. We know that staff absences are contributing to the pressure the NHS is currently facing. Of course we will continue to take appropriate measures to ensure the NHS has the support they need.”
Fortnight of further hospital admissions already ‘baked in’, NHS chief says
A fortnight of further hospital admissions for Covid-19 are “already baked in” as some NHS staff face “the steepest climb of the pandemic yet”, the head of the health service has said.
Amanda Pritchard, chief executive of NHS England, thanked staff during a visit to King’s College Hospital in London on Friday.
More than 400 people are currently in the hospital with Covid-19.
She said: “We’re a week into 2022 but I do know that for some colleagues it already feels like it’s been a long year.
“Case rates of the new variant have been highest so far here in London, but there is no community, no part of the country, that has been untouched by Omicron and this has obviously had, and will continue to have, an impact on NHS staff and on the services that we’re able to provide.
“Realistically, another fortnight of admissions from Omicron are baked in. The only unknown is what level we will see and, of course, we will hope that the more optimistic forecasts are going to be the right ones.”
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