While tariffs remain a challenge, India retains a strong position with key exports across services, pharmaceuticals, and energy that face zero tariffs. The US-China tariff standoff opens a window for India to strengthen its footprint in sectors like apparel, electronics, and manufacturing, especially hi-tech manufacturing with electronic giants like Apple keen to move additional supply chains to India, Dr Aghi told ET in an exclusive interview ahead of the Vance visit next week.
Vance’s first visit to India (which also involves a private component trip to Jaipur and Agra) since taking office as the second-in-command shows the administration’s commitment to the strategic partnership and deepening economic ties after Prime Minister Modi visited Washington in February. Vance will meet the PM besides possible meetings with the external affairs minister and NSA.
“His visit also sends a strong signal to domestic and international stakeholders about the importance both countries place on a robust, future-oriented trade relationship and of course, there was a lot of fanfare in the run-up to elections and post November on the Second Lady being of Indian origin, so plenty of positive coverage on that front,” according to Dr Aghi.
Vance’s visit could help resolve key sticking points and accelerate consensus on contentious trade issues, Dr Aghi pointed out. “I believe both countries need to address tariff challenges by adopting a pragmatic, sector-specific approach. Instead of aiming for broad, sweeping agreements that could risk a stalemate, both nations can focus on individual sectors—such as digital trade, pharmaceuticals, agricultural goods, and defence technology—where mutual interests align.”
This integrated negotiation strategy allows for incremental progress and builds trust towards the next steps of the BTA, while also addressing sensitivities unique to each country’s economic structure, Dr Aghi suggested.Sectoral working groups can be tasked with identifying non-tariff barriers, facilitating regulatory alignment, and phasing out tariffs in a calibrated manner.Despite near-term tariff challenges, the $500 billion bilateral trade target by 2030 remains within reach as both sides need to pave the way forward through discussions.
The focus needs to be where tariffs can be reduced on agricultural goods, dairy, and ICT products. Both sides need to boost digital trade and sort out pending issues on data localisation and cross-border data flows, Dr Aghi said, adding market access for sectors like insurance, e-commerce, and defence manufacturing, while ensuring strong ease of doing business environment and transparency and predictability in a dispute resolution mechanism.
Asked about the impact of retaliatory tariffs on the global economy, USISPF CEO said, “Retaliatory tariffs will upend supply chains that we are trying to rebuild since the pandemic, raise consumer prices thus creating an inflationary environment, and create the market volatility that we are seeing. Hence, as the moratorium has been announced, India will continue to make progress in its discussions with the US on the BTA dialogue.”
As the US and China escalate their trade war and erect protectionist barriers, companies will continue to seek China plus one strategy and aim to “de-risk” by relocating operations, which India can leverage. Businesses too want lower manufacturing costs, and hence India remains a strong and viable location and partner, as part of efforts to build on global value chains in an era of friendshoring, according to Dr Aghi.
