The objective of connecting the Central Asian economies with those of South Asia has, for a very long time, been a much sought-after, and yet unattained, goal. Both regions see immense potential in connectivity projects that can contribute significantly to their national economies and bind countries in a mutually beneficial economic framework. While the Central Asian states have been at the forefront of pushing such projects forward, progress has been frustratingly slow.
Uzbekistan has taken on a leadership role in the region and made Afghanistan the centerpiece of its connectivity projects with South Asia. Will India, the biggest economy in South Asia, bite the bait?
The inaugural Termez Dialogue, held May 19-21, was organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Uzbekistan. Termez, where the dialogue was held, is the capital of Uzbekistan’s southern Surkhandarya region. The unique international forum brought together over 200 participants from Central and South Asia, Europe, Central Asia, Asia Pacific, America, and the Middle East.
As a participant in the inaugural dialogue, it was interesting to witness this attempt at building a broad spectrum and multistakeholder regional platform comprising representatives of political and business circles, financial institutions, international and regional organizations, as well as subject matter experts from around the world. The objective of the forum was to establish a regional platform to promote “Strengthening the connectivity between Central and South Asia,” in line with a resolution adopted in the U.N. General Assembly in 2022, on the initiative of the Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
Three factors made the Termez Dialogue stand out. First, the dialogue involved a large number of governmental and non-governmental sectors along with South and Central Asian experts who brainstormed on the current state and prospects of intra and interregional cooperation between Central and South Asia. Second, there was a conscious attempt to reimagine connectivity projects by expanding the role of the private sector and financial institutions to ensure economic growth and inclusion, and adopt bottom up approach to ensure local buy-in and support. And third, the dialogue did not sidestep the security challenges faces by these projects, but rather sought multistakeholder engagement and cooperation to ensure stability and sustainable development, by incremental trust building and incentivizing economic cooperation, particularly with Afghanistan. In the coming years, the dialogue aims to expand its mandate to include interregional interconnectedness and maintaining peace, security and stability on the vast Eurasian continent.
While these ideas are useful and timely, the ground reality suggests a mixed narrative of potential and hurdles. Whether these hurdles will undermine the potential or whether they will be overcome, and the full potential seized, is yet to be seen.
Hosting the forum in Termez is especially symbolic, given this historic city’s location at the confluence of Central and South Asia. For centuries, Termez has served as the crossroads of civilizations and a center for intercultural, interfaith, and cross-border dialogue, and hence. It occupies a critical node of interregional connectivity. Much before the Silk Road became famous, the ancient northern trade route known as Uttarapatha connected India with Central Asia, passing directly through Termez. The city played a critical role in safeguarding the main crossing over the Amu Darya River, supporting countless caravans, and emerging as a thriving regional trade centre and as the southern gateway of Uzbekistan, which opens into Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, with which Uzbekistan shares a 144-kilometer-long border.
As Termez emerges as a regional hub, new infrastructure projects are transforming the city, creating favorable conditions for strengthening regional connectivity. The establishment of the 36-hectare Airtom International Trade Center in 2024 has opened avenues for Afghan traders who can stay visa-free for up to 15 days in the center. The complex houses production facilities, retail shops, restaurants, hotels, clinics, and advanced training centers.
This project plays a crucial role in facilitating trade and the export of industrial and consumer goods produced by businesses in Afghanistan, Pakistan and other neighboring countries. The Termez-Cargo Center, an international multifunctional transport and logistics hub, also plays a critical humanitarian role. It serves as a key intermediary for the delivery of international aid, not only to Afghanistan but also to Afghan refugees in Iran and Pakistan.
Since 2021, over 144,000 tonnes of humanitarian aid — including essential food supplies such as flour and grain, medicines, tents, solar lamps, and other necessities — have been dispatched through this hub. During my interaction with the Afghans, it was evident that they were benefiting through these centers. Other regional countries, including India, could contribute to these projects.
Two conceived projects are worth mentioning here. First, Russia and Uzbekistan are progressing to build the Trans-Afghan Railway project, which is intended to link Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, providing access to Arabian Sea ports. Two agreed-upon routes for the railway line are: Mazar-i-Sharif-Herat-Delaram-Kandahar-Chaman, and Termez-Naibabad-Logar-Kharlachi. Second, the Trans-Afghan Multimodal Transport Corridor project aims to connect Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan and will potentially carry up to 20 million tonnes of cargo annually. Uzbekistan is funding 45 percent of the Afghan section via exchanges of wheat and construction material.
In addition, the establishment of the free trade zone for Afghanistan in Termez is an innovative initiative that has the potential to stabilize Afghanistan through economic integration and regional connectivity. One of the key Uzbek objectives is to integrate Afghanistan into a cooperative economic framework, which will not only bring stability to the country but may also convert the Taliban into responsible economic players. The corridor can connect with Iran’s Chabahar port, which will open up a vista of opportunity to expand the connectivity to all countries of South Asia, including India. Uzbekistan is positioning itself as a connector between South Asia’s growing markets and Eurasia’s energy, transit, and industrial hubs.
In addition to these projects, the Termez Dialogue sought to prioritize the Central Asia-South Asia power project (CASA-1000), which is an ambitious renewable energy infrastructure construction project that will bring 1,300 megawatts of surplus electricity from Central Asia to high-demand electricity markets in South Asia through new energy infrastructure, and the much-delayed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline gas transit project, which has remained a prisoner of rivalry and needs international guarantees and investment.
The key question here is whether New Delhi will warm up to Uzbekistan’s initiatives in general and the ideas floated in the Termez Dialogue, in particular. India’s low-key participation in the dialogue may have sent a mixed signal regarding the country’s outlook on the Central Asian initiative.
India and Uzbekistan share a long historical and civilizational connection. They signed a strategic partnership agreement in 2011 and a security cooperation agreement in 2019. In the words of Sardar Rustambaev, Uzbekistan’s ambassador to India, “Uzbekistan can be a gateway for Indian companies to the 300 million consumer market of the CIS region, with which it has a trade agreement.” Uzbekistan has offered land, support infrastructure, tax benefits and cheap power to Indian companies bringing technology, skilled labor, and capital to the country.
It is not difficult to see the commonality between the economic strategies of India and Uzbekistan that have Afghanistan as the centerpiece. India is growing its outreach to the Taliban, and all of Uzbekistan’s connectivity projects feature Afghanistan prominently. India as rising power, can play an important role in connecting Afghanistan to South and Central Asia, building on its potential as a land bridge. Uzbekistan as a middle power has taken the lead. India will have to step up to the plate to refuel its Connect Central Asia policy.
