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Home Technology & Startups

Wall Street thinks Apple is set to crush first-quarter earnings estimates thanks to tariffs

April 30, 2025
in Technology & Startups
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Apple Store exterior
Mladen Antonov/AFP via Getty Images
  • Apple will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings results on Thursday.

  • Wall Street analysts expect the company to announce a pull-forward in demand sparked by tariffs.

  • Focus is on Apple’s reliance on China for manufacturing, a new stock buyback program, and any new products in 2025.

Apple is set to report its fiscal year second-quarter earnings on Thursday in a much-anticipated report for Wall Street.

The world’s largest company will explain how the macroeconomic uncertainty related to President Donald Trump’s trade policy is affecting its business, specifically the impact tariffs could have on its supply chain.

A recent report said Apple is planning to move a bulk of its iPhone production destined for US markets from China to India.

Apple shares are down 19% from their record high in late December and are down about 16% year-to-date.

Here’s what Wall Street expects when Apple reports earnings on Thursday.

JPMorgan said Apple’s second-quarter results should remind investors just how resilient it is amid rising macroeconomic uncertainties.

The bank increased its quarterly revenue estimates for the company by more than $2 billion, to $95.8 billion from $93.5 billion, partly due to the company’s likely increased sales ahead of potential tariffs.

That would represent year-over-year revenue growth of more than 5%, coming in ahead of Apple’s prior guidance. Meanwhile, JPMorgan expects Apple to guide “favorably” for low-single to mid-single digit revenue growth in its third-quarter results.

JPMorgan also said Apple’s stock price decline this year derisks it, making it an attractive holding for investors.

“We think given the pullback in shares (down -16% YTD and trading at 26x consensus FY26 EPS), investors are likely to reward the resilience near-term, which will at the bare minimum translate to lower downside risk to FY25 estimates even on a slowdown/digestion,” JPMorgan said.

JPMorgan rates Apple at “Overweight” with a $245 price target.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said investors will be looking to hear answers to six key questions:

  1. How will tariffs impact margins and demand?

  2. How has the recently launched iPhone 16e performed?

  3. What are Apple’s new product releases for the rest of 2025?

  4. How has Apple’s competition in China evolved?

  5. What’s next for Apple Intelligence?

  6. How could Google’s anti-trust lawsuit impact Apple’s revenue?

As to the actual results, Goldman said it expects Apple to beat earnings per share expectations of $1.61 and revenue expectations of $94.0 billion in the quarter.

The bank also expects Apple to announce a new stock buyback authorization, which it typically does during its second quarter. Last year, the company announced a $110 billion buyback program.

Finally, Goldman said any hint at new products, including the rumored launch of an iPhone 17 Air or a foldable iPhone, could drive renewed excitement among investors.

Goldman Sachs rates Apple at “Buy” with a $256 price target.

Angelo Zino, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research, said a pull-forward in consumer demand should help Apple beat Wall Street revenue growth expectations of 4% when it reports its second-quarter results on Thursday.

“We look for revenue growth to have exceeded Mar-Q expectations of 4%, partly reflecting demand pull-ins in the U.S. given policy uncertainty, especially for higher-priced products where tariff risk is greater,” Zino said in a note last week.

Zino said key areas of interest for investors on the call are Apple’s continued growth of its Services business, an update to its capital spending plans, and how its business in China is faring.

CFRA rates Apple at “Buy” with a $235 price target.

The looming tariff risk for Apple is likely going to drive investor questions to center around its massive exposure to China’s manufacturing industry, according to Anurag Rana, senior industry analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

“Apple’s sourcing strategy will likely remain the most discussed topic on its 2Q earnings call given the company’s high dependency on China for both assembly and components,” Rana said in a note last week.

Rana said that while Apple’s products have been exempted from Trump’s tariff list, there is still a risk that those surcharges return.

In terms of sales, Rana said he expects strong results due to a pull-forward in demand from consumers, but that sales next quarter could weaken “due to weak consumer spending” and the lack of any new imminent hardware upgrades.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Tags: AppleGoldman SachsJPMorganPresident Donald Trumprevenue estimatesrevenue growth
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