Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are all typically seen as the largest threats to the U.S., but to what extent the public prioritizes these threats is less clear. The four have the independent means to threaten U.S. interests regionally, if not globally, while greater cooperation across the four creates a unique security challenge to continued U.S. global leadership. Three already have nuclear missiles capable of striking the U.S. while the fourth, Iran, could in the foreseeable future. The four also have engaged in various cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns targeting the United States.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its implications for the future of NATO, poses a continued challenge as the Trump administration seeks an end to the war. China’s economic and military expansion, and in particular increased drills around Taiwan challenges the balance of power in the region, while the introduction of the AI model DeepSeek poses both cybersecurity and economic threats to the U.S. tech industry. North Korea continues to resist denuclearization, having assembled an estimated 50 nuclear warheads and materials for another 20-40 as of January 2024. Meanwhile, Iran not only maintains a nuclear program, but backs various proxy militias active in the Middle East and beyond.
U.S. media coverage regarding the four varies based on new developments, including the re-election of President Donald Trump. U.S. news coverage of Russia surged after Trump claimed he could end the conflict in Ukraine “in 24 hours” while on the campaign trail. Since his inauguration, left-leaning media have criticized the Trump administration’s handling of negotiations with Russia while right-leaning sources have a more optimistic view. The focus shifted to North Korea after Trump and U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth described North Korea as a “nuclear state,” inadvertently legitimizing the country’s right to nuclear arms and sparking discourse.
Open-ended Pew surveys in 2014 and 2019, in which respondents were asked to name which country they saw as the greatest threat to the U.S., included all four in varying ranks across time. Pew surveys generally found concern over both China and Russia increasing over the past decade. Pew Research in 2023 found 50 percent of respondents named China the biggest threat, compared to 17 percent for Russia and only 2 percent for North Korea.
Two 2017 surveys by NBC and Survey Monkey, listing the same four countries in addition to the Islamic State, found Americans saw North Korea as the greatest immediate threat. A 2022 YouGov survey included the same four countries, as well as Afghanistan, with China (34 percent) and Russia (30 percent) named as the greatest threat to U.S. national security. However, views differed largely on partisan lines. Democrats were far more likely to identify Russia as the top threat compared to Republicans (43 percent vs. 19 percent), with a nearly reversed pattern in regard to China (22 percent vs. 50 percent).
Previous experimental survey work in 2019 and 2020 found Americans more concerned about North Korea’s nuclear program than that of Iran. However, this diverged on party lines, with Republicans consistently more concerned about Iran, despite the former already having verifiable nuclear missile technology, perhaps as a function of conservative media focusing more on the Middle East.
Rank ordering provides insight into the public’s foreign policy priorities, and may indirectly pressure for the allocation of more resources toward certain threats, or at least provide justification for such resource allocation. Due to the current focus of the Trump administration as well as media coverage, we would expect a public focus on the threats from Russia and China. In contrast, in the absence of a major event like a nuclear test, North Korea and Iran may be less of a focus, even while acknowledging the ongoing national security threat from both countries.
We commissioned a national web survey through Centiment, hosted from February 12-26, where we asked 522 respondents to rank the four states based on how great of a threat they think the state is to U.S. national security. Overall, respondents clearly identified China as the biggest threat, with 44.64 percent of respondents listing the country first, and 69.16 percent ranking it in the top two threats. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents ranked Russia in the top two as well (59.39 percent). In contrast, Iran was the least likely to be ranked first (11.88 percent) with similar rates for North Korea (13.98 percent).
When broken down by party identification however, we find stark differences. A clear plurality of Republicans ranked China first (48.18 percent), while Democrats were nearly evenly split in their first ranking between China (38.42 percent) and Russia (37.44 percent). Moreover, Republicans were more likely to rank China in the top two compared to Democrats (75.45 percent vs. 62.56 percent). Also of note, Republicans were roughly twice as likely to rate Iran first compared to Democrats (16.36 percent vs. 8.37 percent).
Earlier in the survey, all four were included in a longer list of countries for which we asked respondents their feelings on a five-point Likert scale (1 = very negative, 5 = very positive). Of these four, China elicited the highest average (2.35), while the other three fell under 2. Closer analysis finds that the initial evaluations of countries did not appear to greatly influence their later ranking as a security threat, except for China, where a slim majority of respondents (50.85 percent) who held negative views of the country ranked China as the top threat, dropping to 37.11 percent among those with positive evaluations.
The results reaffirm that while the public hold negative views of all four countries, they view China as the greatest threat to U.S. national security, a perception that aligns with the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific focus. However, this prioritization raises critical concerns if it is used to justify foreign policy. The sharp partisan divide in threat perception suggests the extent to which domestic political framing, rather than objective assessments of risk, shape concerns. This is, again, largely due to the current media focus and overexposure of China as an imminent threat. Moreover, while China’s military and economic expansion present significant challenges, a fixation on Beijing risks diverting attention and resources from other pressing threats or acknowledging the interconnectedness of the threats.
Russia’s continued aggression, North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities, and Iran’s expanding influence in the Middle East all demand strategic vigilance. A comprehensive national security approach must recognize the evolving nature of multiple threats. Without this balance, the United States may find itself strategically vulnerable, underestimating challenges that, in the long term, could prove just as consequential as those posed by China.
