UWCL semifinals: Can Chelsea, Arsenal stop a Barcelona vs. Lyon final?

The stage is set for a thrilling UEFA Women’s Champions League semifinal showdown this weekend, with Arsenal hosting Lyon and Chelsea taking on familiar foes in Barcelona.

The storylines are practically written. All four teams are under new leadership and are hungry to secure a place in the coveted final in Lisbon next month.

For Lyon’s new manager, Joe Montemurro, this clash holds extra significance as he faces his former club, Arsenal. Both sides are still recovering from painful near-misses: Arsenal’s early exit from last season’s qualifiers, and Lyon’s heartbreaking defeat in the final against Barcelona.

Meanwhile, Chelsea and Barcelona are set for an all-too-familiar battle in the semis; it is the third consecutive year that they’ve met at this stage. The Catalans have come out on top both times so far, but can they complete a third straight victory over the Quadruple-hunting Blues?

ESPN’s Emily Keogh, Julien Laurens and Sam Marsden have weighed in with their opinions and predictions.

ARSENAL vs. LYON

What state are Arsenal in?

Arsenal are in strong form heading into this pivotal clash. They’ve scored four or more goals in each of their last six home games in the Women’s Super League — an impressive run that underlines their attacking prowess — and recently pulled off a dramatic comeback against Real Madrid in the quarterfinals, overturning a two-goal deficit to reach this stage.

On paper, they look well placed to challenge Lyon, but injuries threaten to unravel their campaign just as momentum builds. Manager Renée Slegers, confirmed in the role full-time after stepping in following Jonas Eidevall’s departure, faces her toughest test yet. She may be without three key players: Daphne van Domselaar, Alessia Russo and Chloe Kelly. While Slegers described their availability for the first leg as “touch and go,” sources told ESPN that goalkeeper Van Domselaar is expected to miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury, which is a major blow between the posts.

Slegers has already shown resilience in the face of adversity and Arsenal fans will remember their 5-1 triumph over Lyon in 2022 fondly. But this time, the challenge feels steeper and ghosts of their past still linger. Lyon are back to winning ways and their squad has been rebalanced following the return of key players, while Arsenal face a similar predicament to two seasons ago. — EK

What state are Lyon in?

The French champions are cruising in the league, eight points clear of PSG, and are still unbeaten after 20 games (W18, D2, and with a goal difference of +81). But we have seen signs of defensive fragility lately.

On Saturday, at home against Paris FC, Lyon conceded a late equaliser in the 92nd minute to draw 2-2. We had seen them under pressure against Bayern Munich in the previous round of the Champions League, too, where they were outplayed in the first half of the first leg in Germany and then even went behind at half-time of the second leg at home.

Captain and defensive leader Wendie Renard had to get angry at half-time to force her teammates to react and they eventually came out on top to win 4-1 (6-1 on aggregate). Then, after the Paris FC game, it was Amel Majri who was not happy, saying: “We have to be more rigorous and raise our level.”

Manager Joe Montemurro knows a lot about Arsenal — having coached them from 2017-2021 — but knows he needs to sort out the balance of his team. Lyon have incredible firepower going forward, clearly the best in Europe, with Melchie Dumornay, Tabitha Chawinga, Kadidiatou Diani, Eugénie Le Sommer, Ada Hegerberg, Vicki Bècho and Lindsey Heaps (formerly Horan). But that can leave their defence too exposed at times. — JL

Arsenal player to watch: Mariona Caldentey

With Russo potentially sidelined, Arsenal’s attacking focus will turn to those ready to step up, and few are better placed than Caldentey. In fine form and full of experience, she’s a proven winner, with three Champions League titles from her time at Barcelona.

Caldentey has consistently been the difference-maker for Arsenal this season and could be the key to unlocking Lyon’s defence. Whether she plays on the wing or in midfield, she will be a handful for Lyon to deal with and her ability to elevate those around her will be crucial to foiling Lyon’s attacking threats. — EK

Lyon player to watch: Melchie Dumornay

Dumornay will only turn 22 in August, but she is already among the best players in Europe. The Haiti midfielder has been amazing so far this season and can do it all: score goals (four in seven UWCL games), assist (2), recover the ball (34) and win duels (32).

She can play in a number of positions across Montemurro’s 4-3-3 formation, but is always given a lot of freedom on the pitch and often drops deep in midfield to receive possession and play the ball forward. She will certainly be the main danger for Arsenal. — JL

Prediction

The first leg at the Emirates, something of a fortress for the Gunners, offers Arsenal a valuable home advantage. But with injuries biting on both ends of the pitch, this may be a tighter affair than their recent home record suggests. Lyon won’t find it easy, but Arsenal might be forced onto the back foot. Seeing how Arsenal have turned things around in second legs, Lyon will need to ensure they do everything possible to give themselves enough of a cushion to prevent the Gunners from stealing a win. — EK

On paper, due to the team’s history in the UWCL and the fact that they are still unbeaten in all competitions so far this season, Lyon have to be the favorites — especially with the second leg at home. We have seen a few cracks defensively lately and Arsenal could exploit them, but while I I expect the Gunners to give it a good go, Lyon will be too strong in the end. — JL

BARCELONA vs. CHELSEA

What state are Barcelona in?

This is a tricky question to answer. On the face of it, Barça are still all-conquering: Spanish Supercopa champions, clear at the top of Liga F, into the Copa de la Reina final and with this Champions League semifinal against Chelsea to come.

Dig a little deeper, though, and there is cause for concern. This is a Barça side who have shown weaknesses this season; Manchester City, Levante and Real Madrid have all exploited them in surprise wins. In Liga F, Barça have conceded 15 goals in 25 games already. That may not sound a lot, but it’s as many as they have conceded in any campaign since the switch to a 16-team league in 2012-13.

The question is: Why have they not dazzled quite as much as in past seasons? There’s a new coach, with Pere Romeu replacing Jonatan Giráldez last summer, and the losses of Caldentey, Keira Walsh and Lucy Bronze have stripped the team of some depth. Elsewhere, Caroline Graham Hansen’s form isn’t as spectacular as it was last season, Alexia Putellas is fighting to recover her pre-injury greatness, and other players are either not hitting their previous levels or a work in progress — as is the case with the likes of Esmee Brugts, Clàudia Pina, Vicky López and Sydney Schertenleib.

That said, the back-to-back European champions are still the best team on the continent. They showed that by bouncing back from a first-ever Clásico defeat to Real Madrid in the league recently with impressive six-goal wins against both Wolfsburg and Atlético Madrid. They will feel they have a point to prove against Chelsea. — SM

What state are Chelsea in?

They say “third time’s the charm” and for Chelsea, this might finally be the year they exorcise their Barcelona demons. Twice denied by the Catalan juggernauts at this very stage, Sonia Bompastor’s side now look better equipped than ever to flip the script.

Chelsea are arguably the most complete of the four semifinalists; they’ve lost only once all season, their squad depth is unrivalled, and they’re riding high after a League Cup triumph. With a six-point lead in the WSL, another FA Cup final on the horizon, and the dream of an unprecedented Quadruple still alive, the hunger in this Chelsea side is undeniable and momentum is on their side. Bompastor is a serial winner, having won the competition as both a player and manager, so there is no one better equipped to lead the side into their first final since 2019.

What truly sets Chelsea apart is their unshakable will to win. They’ve made a habit of digging deep — from overturning a two-goal deficit in the quarterfinals to clawing back games after falling behind. Resilience runs through their veins.

This is the third-straight year they face Barcelona in the semifinals and last season, they won the first leg but couldn’t finish the job. This time, they have the tools, mindset, and perhaps most importantly, the belief. Everything points to this being the moment Chelsea finally break through. — EK

Barcelona player to watch: Salma Paralluelo

Aitana Bonmatí is still the player that makes Barça tick, Graham Hansen can be devastating on the right wing and striker Ewa Pajor has over 30 goals since signing from Wolfsburg last summer. However, the player to watch at the moment might just be Paralluelo. The 21-year-old forward has not quite kicked on as she would have liked since starring for Spain at the 2023 World Cup, largely due to injuries, and only returned to full fitness in December. She has slowly been re-finding her top form since and, with eight goals in her last 10 Barça appearances, there are finally signs she is getting there. — EK

Chelsea player to watch: Erin Cuthbert

Injuries have taken a toll — Lauren James is a doubt with a hamstring issue — but such is Chelsea’s strength in depth that they’ve barely missed a beat. The winning machine keeps turning, no matter who starts.

Cuthbert continues to show why she’s one of Chelsea’s most invaluable yet-often-underrated players. A tireless engine in midfield, Cuthbert may not always grab the headlines, but her influence is undeniable. It’s not just her knack for scoring crucial goals — though she’s rescued Chelsea more than once this season — it’s her relentless work ethic, intelligent positioning, and ability to dictate tempo both on and off the ball that sets her apart.

In a tie as finely balanced as this, the midfield will be the battleground. Having watched the last four encounters between Chelsea and Barcelona, it’s clear whoever controls the midfield will likely control the outcome. Cuthbert is the kind of player who thrives in the chaos and will be a determining factor in who takes the glory. — EK

Prediction

This is the toughest semifinal to call and last year’s meeting showed there is very little between the two teams. Chelsea have arguably improved since then; Barça have, at best, stood still. Yet they boast big game players and so much talent, it’s hard to back against them. So, I’ll pick Barça, though it may go the full distance over the two legs. — SM

With the first leg away from home, Barcelona have an added advantage. But Chelsea ended their historic run before, beating them in their own back yard. This feels like it’s Chelsea’s game to lose, so a narrow first leg, with all the play for in the second at Stamford Bridge, feels fitting. Having been in this situation twice before, Chelsea finally feel like favorites and this may tip them to go all the way. — EK