It’s almost football time in … Starkville, Miss. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the University of Kentucky’s game against Mississippi State might play out at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday night.
Battle of Wills
The potential for interceptions increases the more times the ball goes into the air, and Mississippi State will put it in the air a lot this weekend. Mississippi State’s offensive play distribution this season has been 75-25 in favor of the pass, and resulted in more good (2,623 yards, 19 touchdowns) than bad (seven interceptions) for true sophomore Will Rogers.
Three of the picks came in the Bulldogs’ 49-9 home loss to Alabama. The Crimson Tide also sacked Rogers a season-high seven times, frequently via third-down demolitions up the middle of the Bulldogs offensive line. Mississippi State ranks in the bottom third of college football in giving up nearly three sacks a game; if Kentucky can’t take the ball away from Rogers, then it needs to put him on the ground often.
Kentucky will be highly motivated to get its ground attack going again after turning in the second-fewest rushing yards of the Mark Stoops era at Georgia two weekends ago. Mississippi State isn’t as formidable, but it ranks ninth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game; it’s given up a run total of 100 yards or more just three times this season (and Alabama, which had 195 yards, was the only achiever to win). The Cats’ experience on the offensive line should give it an edge versus a Bulldogs defensive front that returned only one starter (Jaden Crumedy, now a junior) from last year’s team.
“Mississippi State, they do a really good job of just giving you a bunch of different looks that you have to prepare for,” UK offensive line coach Eric Wolford said. “You’ve got to go out and execute on a consistent basis and make sure you’re targeted on the right people. If you do that, you’ve got a chance to be successful.”
The Will Levis-Wan’Dale Robinson tandem gives Kentucky a dimension it didn’t have last year against the Bulldogs. Terry Wilson threw 20 times in last year’s game — one of just four games in which he had at least 20 passing attempts — but completed just eight throws for 73 yards. The longest reception came on UK’s first drive and went for just 17 yards to Josh Ali, who’s practiced this week and could play for the first time since the Florida game. Adding him back into the mix would help turn the “Will vs. Will” battle more toward UK’s favor.
Georgia off their minds
What kind of effect will UK’s first loss have on its next game? Based on what everyone involved with the team has said, they’re past it, but that spiel has been uttered in years before and proven to be a non-truth. Why would this year be any different?
The bye should help alleviate some concern of a hangover, but Kentucky’s performance coming off byes under Stoops doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. UK is 4-6 following off weeks in Stoops’ eight previous seasons, and 3-3 in its last six attempts. (This is as good a place as any to remind that the Wildcats also haven’t won in Starkville since 2008, five years before Stoops took the reins.)
Those trends are conspiring against Kentucky, but it has recently evaded one nasty streak: In Stoops’ first six seasons, UK lost its next game following the Georgia game, but it has won its following contest after Georgia each of the last two years. It clobbered Missouri, 29-7, in 2019 before holding on for a 38-35 decision over Vanderbilt last year (which, like this week, was played following an off week).
For what it’s worth, the bad history and the potential to make better of it isn’t lost on Kentucky’s players. Center Luke Fortner, who’s making his third trip to Starkville, gave an address to the team earlier in the week about the importance of this game and not coming out flat.
“I just reminded the team that it’s a business trip,” Fortner said. “We’re gonna go down there and win the game.”
Third down
Mississippi State this season has converted 47 percent of its third downs while holding opponents to a 35-percent success rate. Kentucky’s success rates in both categories are slightly lower (45.7 and 39.6, respectively) but still respectable.
By the nature of what they do, the Bulldogs are going to move the ball; it’ll just be a matter of whether UK can create and then capitalize the third-and-long opportunities against Leach’s offense. The Cats were pitiful in third-down situations on offense last year (4-for-14) but the Bulldogs were worse; they ended 3-for-17 overall and were 0-for-9 in their second-half opportunities. Twelve of State’s tries were third-and-6, or longer, and it only gained a first down once (it also converted a fourth-and-1 after a 9-yard pickup on a preceding third-and-10 bid).
That was a less-efficient group playing just its third game in Leach’s system. State is humming better in year two, but there’s one thing UK can replicate from a year ago regardless of how on-point the Bulldogs are — its own effort.
“We played hungry,” defensive end Josh Paschal said. “If you watch the film, we were flying around. Whenever they would throw check downs, all the blue hats were swarming to the ball. And that’s something that we have to do this week.”
Final predictions
Mississippi State 22, Kentucky 21: If I’d made this pick last week, I would have gone with Kentucky. With a couple more days to mull it over than normal, though, it’s tough not to latch onto the track record of poor performances in Starkville and feel great about taking the Wildcats. I think UK is the better team, as a whole, but there doesn’t appear to be a glaring matchup advantage in either team’s favor outside of the game being played on enemy turf. So, I’ll begrudgingly give the edge to the cowbells.
MVP: In the situations where Kentucky wins, one of its linebackers likely has an interception and/or blows up several plays behind the line of scrimmage. I’ll give the nod to Jordan Wright, but it could end up being any of those guys at the second level.
Good gamble: Kentucky as of Thursday was a 1.5-point or two-point favorite, depending where you looked. If you’re confident in the Cats, but think they’ll win close, don’t bet the spread. Go for a “win by 1-6” prop, which would pay at +375 odds.
The last word
Much is made of the effect cowbells rung by fans at Mississippi State can have on opponents. It’s not just talk. Says linebacker DeAndre Square:
“I’ve only played there one time, and all I can remember is the cowbells and losing. It’s a draining place to play in. The cowbells really drain you. The crowd really drains you. When they make a play, you can feel it.”
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