Americans haven’t felt this bad about the economy since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic and major companies are taking notice, slashing financial forecasts.
Consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in April, reaching its lowest level since May 2020 amid growing concerns over President Trump’s tariff agenda.
Economists aren’t the only ones worried about what that could mean for consumer spending, which drives nearly 70 percent of the U.S. economy.
Top executives at legacy American brands including PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble and McDonald’s are also concerned about a slowdown, pointing to weaker consumer demand on recent earnings calls.
McDonald’s reported a 3.6 percent drop in U.S. same-store sales Thursday, the biggest year-over-year decline since 2020.
Chris Kempczinski, the fast food chain’s CEO, told investors that low- and middle-income consumers, in particular, “are being weighed down by the cumulative impact of inflation, and heightened anxiety about the economic outlook.”
Last week, PepsiCo lowered its full-year profit forecast, citing rising supply chain costs from tariffs and a pullback in consumer spending.
“Relative to where we were three months ago, we probably aren’t feeling as good about the consumer now,” PepsiCo Chief Financial Officer Jamie Caulfield said on an earnings call.
Fast food giants warn of economic headwinds
McDonald’s rivals are facing similar challenges due to recent economic uncertainty.
Last week, Chipotle reported weaker-than-expected revenue in the first quarter, with same-store sales declining for the first time since 2020, according to CNBC.
“In February, we began to see that the elevated level of uncertainty felt by consumers was starting to impact their spending habits,” Chipotle CEO Scott Boatright said on a recent earnings call.
Boatright said concern about the economy was the “overwhelming reason” consumers dined out less — a trend that continued into April.
In March, Boatright said the burrito chain doesn’t plan to raise prices and will absorb potential cost increases from tariffs.
Yum Brands, which owns KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, logged higher revenue in the first quarter, though it fell short of analysts’ expectations.
Meanwhile, Domino’s Pizza reported an unexpected decline in U.S. same-store sales in the first quarter. While the company still expects same-store sales to grow this year, leaders cautioned about a potential “downstream impact” on demand amid ongoing economic turbulence.
“We want to be very careful and mindful that there’s a lot of volatility from a geopolitical perspective,” Chief Financial Officer Sandeep Reddy said on the quarterly earnings call.
Americans are cutting back on laundry to save detergent: P&G
Consumer powerhouses including Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive see shoppers’ habits changing in response to the tariffs.
P&G, which makes Tide, among other popular products, is already noticing consumers cut back on laundry to conserve detergent, an executive told Yahoo Finance recently.
The Cincinnati-based consumer goods behemoth said it’s doing whatever it can to reduce the impact of Trump’s tariffs, including shifting sourcing and changing formulations. However, P&G’s Chief Financial Officer Andre Schulten told reporters on a recent call that the company will likely have to pass on higher prices to shoppers as early as July.
“Everything plays into the consumer behavior,” Schulten said, per the Associated Press. “Uncertainty around the stock market and what their 401(k)s are worth and what the portfolio is worth. Uncertainty around the economic outlook and what it means for their livelihood and the job market.”
Colgate-Palmolive CEO Noel Wallace issued a similar warning, noting that consumers tend to “hunker down” when the economic outlook gets cloudy.
“You will see consumers destock their pantries and not necessarily buy that extra tube or that extra body wash as they see, obviously, a very volatile external environment,” Wallace said on a recent earnings call.
Kimberly-Clark, which makes Kleenex and Huggies diapers, slashed its annual profit forecast last week and said it would incur nearly $300 million in costs this year due to Trump’s tariffs.
However, Kimberly-Clark on Thursday unveiled plans to invest more than $2 billion over the next 5 years to expand its manufacturing capacity in the U.S. — a win for Trump’s long-term goal.
The company said the projects include a new “advanced manufacturing facility” in Warren, Ohio, and an expanded “automated distribution center” in Beech Island, South Carolina. Kimberly-Clark expects the investments to create more than 900 jobs.
