“Democracy or illiberalism,” “Europe or isolation,” “mathematics champion or football hooligan” — these are some of the headlines and assessments in independent Romanian media outlets in the run-up to the second round of the presidential election on Sunday.
The atmosphere in Romania has rarely been as tense in recent decades. Without exception, all commentators and observers consider the country to be at a crossroads and facing a historic decision.
No presidential election since the collapse of the Communist dictatorship in 1989-90 has been marked by such radical differences between the candidates and such deep societal divisions. And rarely has the result of the election been so hard to predict.
Both candidates are keen to stress that they are not “part of the establishment” and do not represent Romania’s traditional, post-Communist parties.
Who are the two candidates?
The first of the two candidates in the runoff is 38-year-old George Simion, head of the extreme right-wing, pro-Russian Alliance for the Union of Romanians party.
A former football hooligan, Simion now describes himself as a “sovereignist” and is a fan of both US President Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
He was the clear winner of the first round of the election on May 4, garnering almost 41% of the vote.
His opponent on Sunday is 55-year-old Nicusor Dan, the independent mayor of Bucharest. Dan is a mathematician, former anti-corruption activist and a man with clear pro-European, largely liberal and at times moderately conservative positions.
He came second in the first round, albeit far behind Simion on 21%.
Why is the election so important?
There is a huge amount at stake in this election, for both Romania and Europe.
Romania is the sixth largest country in the EU and the largest in southeastern Europe. It has the longest border with Ukraine of any EU member state and is home to both the most important NATO base and missile-defense system in the region.
Romania has thus far been a reliable and predictable partner for both the EU and NATO.
But all that could change if Simion is elected, plunging Romania into a similar kind of chaos as the US is experiencing under Trump.
What is the president’s role?
Although the Romanian president does not have any major executive powers, he or she is the commander-in-chief of the army and the head of the Supreme Council of National Defense.
The president appoints the prime minister, the heads of the country’s two most important intelligence services and some of the judges at the constitutional court, represents Romania in the EU and NATO and can also attend cabinet meetings.
In short, the president can exert considerable influence on Romania’s domestic and foreign policies.
Who is the front-runner?
Most polls published over the last two weeks put Simion ahead — sometimes by a lot; sometimes by a little. One very recent poll puts the two candidates neck and neck.
However, election forecasts in Romania are notoriously unreliable. No single institute predicted Simion’s runaway success in the first round of the election.
Simion has been in the headlines in recent years for vile, sometimes physically violent actions and has regularly pledged to “smash the system.”
He has also promised more or less outright to take Romania out of both NATO and the EU and to annex the Republic of Moldova and parts of southwestern Ukraine. His pro-Russian attitudes and nationalist agitation against Romania’s Hungarian minority have also attracted attention in the past.
More recently, however, Simion has abruptly changed his tune. By his standards, his public appearances have been calm and he no longer shouts and uses vulgar expressions.
Instead of talking about Romania exiting the EU and NATO, he speaks of respect and dignity for his country. With him as president, Romania would be a partner “at eye level and no longer on its knees.”
What has not changed is his anti-Ukrainian agitation. Simion falsely claims, for instance, that Ukrainian people seeking protection are given preferential treatment over Romanian citizens.
Another thing that has not changed is that Simion knows little about how a country is run, the economy, the EU, and foreign and defense policy.
Simion recently received a surprising election campaign boost from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who praised the right-wing extremist’s sovereignty policy in a speech.
This led, for the first time in many years, to a conflict between Orban and the party of the Hungarian minority in Romania, the UDMR, which has distanced itself unequivocally from Simion as a result of his earlier violent, anti-Hungarian actions.
The UDMR has called on the roughly 1.2 million ethnic Hungarians living in Romania to vote for Simion’s rival, Nicusor Dan.
What is Dan’s track record?
Were Dan to win the election, Romania would have a pro-European president who stands for the rule of law, transparency, dependability and unqualified support for Ukraine.
As the mayor of Bucharest, Dan has proven that he can push through reforms even if he has not been able to keep all his campaign promises. His problem is that he occasionally gets bogged down in complexities.
In debates with Simion in recent weeks, he often gave very intelligent answers. However, it was also evident that he avoids conflict on certain issues and often reacts too defensively.
Who would the candidates appoint as PM?
Dan has said that should he win the election, he would appoint interim president Ilie Bolojan as prime minister.
Bolojan is largely considered a man of integrity who enjoyed a good reputation as the mayor of the western Romanian city of Oradea.
As a long-time senior member of the National Liberal Party, however, Bolojan represents “the establishment,” which could have a negative impact on Dan’s chances. The hatred felt by a large part of Romanian society toward the establishment is the driving force in this election.
Ironically, it is the self-declared “system smasher” George Simion who represents a continuation of the old nationalist, Stalinist system of former dictator Nicolae Ceausescu.
Some members of this system are still active to this day — including in Simion’s AUR party. Simion has said that should he win on Sunday, he will appoint the pro-Russian right-wing extremist Calin Georgescu prime minister.
Georgescu was barred from taking part in this rerun of last November’s presidential election. Throughout his entire political career, he was a protege of former Ceausescu diplomats and members of the Securitate, Romania’s infamous communist-era secret police.
All this explains why civil rights activist Gabriel Andreescu, a former dissident during the Ceausescu era, concluded in a recent essay that “A victory for George Simion would be the last stage in the resurrection of the former communist networks of power.”
This article was originally written in German and adapted by Aingeal Flanagan.
